Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Extremeweatherguy]

We'll see where the system actually forms first. Some models have a system developing in the Carribbean and some have a system developing east of FL. Everyone always assumes Texas when something hasn't even formed yet.

No one is assuming TX...but looking at the pattern it would appear that a western or northern Gulf final impact (meaning TX, LA, MS, AL, FL panhandle) would be most likely from anything that formed in the caribbean or SE GOM next week.

[Derek Ortt]

that forecast discussion talks of an upper low, not a surface low

[ROCK]

that forecast discussion talks of an upper low, not a surface low

yeah, Derek, the 12ZCMC is showing what looks to be a ULL moving across FL and along the northern gulf coast into LA. Probably what they were referring to.

[Stormcenter]

Way too much is being made of what we have right now which is "nothing".

[HURAKAN]

Way too much is being made of what we have right now which is "nothing".

Could be "something" when the NHC already has two RECON missions planned and it has a lot of computer model support. But I agree with you that as of know there nothing down there.

[southerngale]

Way too much is being made of what we have right now which is "nothing".

Way too much how? People are discussing what the models show and what various NWS offices have mentioned. That's what this forum is for.

Nobody is evacuating.

[Derek Ortt]

all of the models do not indicate development from the SW carib

some do, but others develop a different feature in the GOM

we are not close to gabrielle and dean type model agreement

[chadtm80]

all of the models do not indicate development from the SW carib

some do, but others develop a different feature in the GOM

we are not close to gabrielle and dean type model agreement

Who said all the models were? Didnt catch that

[Derek Ortt]

just pointing out that there is not as much model support for the SW carib as it seems on the surface

there is support for a TC of some type, but of two different possibilities

[Ed Mahmoud]

At this point, just rechecking IR loops, not sure where/what aircraft would go to look at. Suspect canx on missions.

Semi-OT I wonder if the little blob of t-storms East of CRP is just along the old cold front, or related to Son of Humberto.

[Stormcenter]

This is from the NWS Tallahassee, FL discussion this afternoon.
I believe "currently" this is what we will ultimately be looking
at in the GOM if something does materialize later this week. IMO

Long term...both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS remain fairly consistent with
the westward progress of the middle/upper low across the Gulf during the
period. A deep moist east-southeasterly flow on eastern side of this system will
maintain an unsettled weather pattern with scattered showers/thunderstorms
each day...with best chances on Thursday and Friday.

[mattpetre]

Any chance the tail end just South of Houston could get a low level feature going? Just curious...

[mattpetre]

I believe development could occur in the GOM directly first from the end of the front that is creating convection about 200 miles south of Houston right now.

[Ptarmigan]

I believe development could occur in the GOM directly first from the end of the front that is creating convection about 200 miles south of Houston right now.

Would not surprise me if it happens. Hurricane Alicia formed that way in 1983.

[Derek Ortt]

Alicia formed form a thunderstorm complex, not from a UL

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I personally do not see anything coming out of this. The shear is very high and is expected to remain over this. The models should keep backing off development.

[Vortex]

NAM rolling in...

[skysummit]

I'm not understanding what's backing off in development? The EURO, NOGAPS, GFS, and NAM still show something. I haven't looked at the UKMET. The Canadian isn't showing the Caribbean system, but is showing the cold core to warm core scenario.

[Vortex]

NAM +24

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024l.gif

[Vortex]

NAM +30

Also, notice Ingrid

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