Azores Low Pressure System

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HURAKAN
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Azores Low Pressure System

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 16, 2007 2:22 pm

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TWD 205:
A 1015 MB LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N36W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 29N35W 27N42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

While everyone is looking at the tropics for development, I decided to take a look further north. This area has a surface low confirmed by the NHC and convection has been developing to the east and north of the center. It's an area to keep an eye in case it becomes better organized. By the way, the SST are running around 27ºC, favorable for development, and the winshear around 5-10 knots.

Sandy
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#2 Postby punkyg » Sun Sep 16, 2007 4:28 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/neatl/rb-l.jpg

Do you think this will be an invest?
which direction is this moving.

I wonder what its gonna look like later this evening.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 16, 2007 4:40 pm

18Z:

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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 16, 2007 4:50 pm

Image

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Low Pressure System SSW of the Azores

#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Sep 16, 2007 4:54 pm

Looking good, if it where to form a burst of convection and pull that frontal/trough boundry it has on the southeast side. I could easly see this upgraded. Also this is a threat to land=Azores.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Low Pressure System SSW of the Azores

#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Sep 16, 2007 4:58 pm

The Gfs,Gfs MM5,NGP, all show this system moving back west-northwestward over the next few days. In fact all of them show it becoming warm core. The GFs MM5 and NGP already shows it warm core.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Low Pressure System SSW of the Azores

#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Sep 16, 2007 5:05 pm

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ce/Unnamed_subtropical_storm_%282005%29.jpg


This is the unnamed storm of 2005. It looks no different.

I'm starting to think that this may get a name before anything in the tropics does.
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 16, 2007 6:21 pm

TWD 805:

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR
32N35W EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 33N36W THROUGH
29N37W TO 25N42W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28NB FROM 30W TO 35W. BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE E AND MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING
ALONG 16N FROM W AFRICA TO JUST SE OF INGRID NEAR 52W.
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 16, 2007 7:28 pm

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Convection increasing close to the center.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 16, 2007 8:52 pm

Image

Lets see how it looks tomorrow morning.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Low Pressure System SSW of the Azores

#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Sep 16, 2007 9:03 pm

The quickscat shows a surface closed LLC. But very weak and most of the wind is on the east side away from the LLC=extratropical frontal boundry. I would watch the quickscat closely as if the winds start moving closer to the core, it will be a huge sign of it becoming more tropical.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas25.png
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 16, 2007 10:24 pm

Image

Strong band of convection just to the east of the low pressure system.
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#13 Postby Chacor » Sun Sep 16, 2007 10:35 pm

What are SSTs like?
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Low Pressure System SSW of the Azores

#14 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:21 am

78 degrees...
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:15 am

Image

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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:18 am

TWD 205:

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 33N36W THROUGH
29N36W TO 27N41W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE SFC LOW. BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E AND MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG
16N FROM W AFRICA TO JUST SE OF INGRID NEAR 52W.
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:35 am

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Looking good.
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#18 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:37 am

Another post season storm?
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Re:

#19 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:38 am

RL3AO wrote:Another post season storm?


Don't know. So far the NHC is not mentioning anything about this system as a potential tropical or subtropical cyclone.
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:42 am

Trying to wrap??

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