Ex-Ingrid north of Leewards
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- gatorcane
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Ex-Ingrid north of Leewards
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I am opening up this thread because I do think Ingrid can regenerate in about 3 days or so and may not be a fish. Anybody that is behind me post here (or who thinks I am crazy so be it).
-She has a vigorous LLC at the lower levels. Shear cannot destroy that
-She keeps generating intense convection that is currently getting blown off to the east by the 30K of shear.
-Water temps are only going to get warmer
-It is September, and the env is bound to become favorable for her again.
I expect here to move off with the low-level flow at a generally WNW to sometimes NW movement and end up a little to the left of the NHC guidance currently as of this posting. I am then looking at models showing a huge 500MB High building in by Wed or so next week off the East Coast of the US which will turn here WNW and then due W or even WSW. At that time the ULL winds will be more favorable and she should start to blow up again.
Shear tendency:
Visible Loop showing strong, in tact LLC:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
I am opening up this thread because I do think Ingrid can regenerate in about 3 days or so and may not be a fish. Anybody that is behind me post here (or who thinks I am crazy so be it).
-She has a vigorous LLC at the lower levels. Shear cannot destroy that
-She keeps generating intense convection that is currently getting blown off to the east by the 30K of shear.
-Water temps are only going to get warmer
-It is September, and the env is bound to become favorable for her again.
I expect here to move off with the low-level flow at a generally WNW to sometimes NW movement and end up a little to the left of the NHC guidance currently as of this posting. I am then looking at models showing a huge 500MB High building in by Wed or so next week off the East Coast of the US which will turn here WNW and then due W or even WSW. At that time the ULL winds will be more favorable and she should start to blow up again.
Shear tendency:
Visible Loop showing strong, in tact LLC:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
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- gatorcane
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Re: I Still think I Ingrid Will be Back
I have changed my mind because looking at the large-scale synoptics today and just how great her LLC looks --- I just can't see her fizzling. So yes, I its a bold prediction but we'll see what happens.
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- gatorcane
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Re: I Still think I Ingrid Will be Back
I have a pro met backing me, at least to the point she could reintensify:
Derek Ortt wrote:the UL is moving to the north and conditions may improve as soon as TOMORROW.
Ingrid needs to dissipate within the next 24 hours or else it will likely reintensify
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Re:
RL3AO wrote:Well well well. I agree with you about it making it through the shear, but I was expecting it to have to survive three days or more. And I also agree that the NHC is too far north and not far enough west.
some of the globals open it up but you can still see the wave.....might hang on some.....
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Re: I Still think I Ingrid Will be Back
Gator,
My opinion, as far as any potential hit on the SE coast is concerned, is that Ingrid will never even get close even if it does regenerate. It is moving far too slowly and is so far away. Actually, I think that the NE US probably has a better chance of being hit, but even that chance is small. I'll also add that the wave east of Ingrid has very little shot at ever getting close to the lower 48 imho due to climo and the current sluggish movement of Ingrid.
But that doesn't mean I don't think there are any realistic potential threats to the SE US. I'll be watching very closely what that upper low does N of Hisp. (for SE coast) as well as the Caribbean mess (main initial direct hit threat to Gulf coast imho).
My opinion, as far as any potential hit on the SE coast is concerned, is that Ingrid will never even get close even if it does regenerate. It is moving far too slowly and is so far away. Actually, I think that the NE US probably has a better chance of being hit, but even that chance is small. I'll also add that the wave east of Ingrid has very little shot at ever getting close to the lower 48 imho due to climo and the current sluggish movement of Ingrid.
But that doesn't mean I don't think there are any realistic potential threats to the SE US. I'll be watching very closely what that upper low does N of Hisp. (for SE coast) as well as the Caribbean mess (main initial direct hit threat to Gulf coast imho).
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- Category 5
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Re: I Still think I Ingrid Will be Back
hmmmmm
how about TD 8...looks like I smell BIG bust coming and a huge let down for this board.
Again all bark and no bite. Should have stuck to my guns and not even given it a chance....
Fall is coming quick this year....I'm not sure how much longer we will see any CV storms.
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Re: I Still think I Ingrid Will be Back
Looks like the weakness above it is so weak it will be too far out to sea to get grabbed by any High.
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- gatorcane
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models have shifted left all day today (Saturday) and Ingrid is currently only about 400 miles ESE of much more favorable conditions. She continues to burst deep convection that is blowing off east of the LLC. Based on her current movement at 10mph, we can calculate that in appx 40 hours or 2 days or so, she will be approaching the beginning of a much favorable environment as she moves WNW to W just north of the Leewards. In fact the GFDL moves her west now for the next 3-5 days.
Shear has still not killed her and if she can hang on just a couple of more days she will have her chance.
Shear has still not killed her and if she can hang on just a couple of more days she will have her chance.
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re: I Still think I Ingrid Will be Back
Told ya the shear wasn't going to relax and that you were rooting for a loser...
It won't get better till mid week...and by then there won't be anything left.
It won't get better till mid week...and by then there won't be anything left.
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Re: I Still think I Ingrid Will be Back
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0828.shtml
it seems the season as a whole is winding down very quickly...
it seems the season as a whole is winding down very quickly...
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Re: I Still think I Ingrid Will be Back
Is there some where we should send flowers? Or perhaps a donation could be made in the deceased name to a charity of your choosing.
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Ex-Ingrid (still on NRL) north of Leewards
Since Ingrid is no longer a tropical cyclone and that thread is to be locked, I decided to create this thread to continue discussions.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- x-y-no
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:I believe if this regenerates (not expected at this point), it remains Ingrid. Correct?
No ... since it has opened up into a wave, any new surface circulation would be a different entity.
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