Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Ed Mahmoud]

I haven't seen Bastardi address this since this weekend, but from watching his videos, a few of his rabbit out a hat" storms started with a blob of storms induced by an ULL. But what really sets it off is the arrival of a tropical wave, maybe like the one in the Caribbean, that brings in enough moisture and heat that all the thunderstorms eventually warm the environment aloft, if the shear isn't unreasonable, and the ULL that started the whole thing gains enough separation that instead of shearing the system (too badly, anyway) it provides some short wave ridging aloft that helps the developing hybrid system become fully tropical.

[skysummit]

12z GFS @ 90 Hours...low in central gulf.

[Stormcenter]

Some of you people are nuts and apparently just want to have something out there that put you in a super positive or super negative (on development) camp so you can come back and stake some kind of weather-weenie claim. Really.

All you have to do is look for pattern reversal which has pre-indicated several developments this year (as it does almost every year). I don't understand what's so hard to see. You have an upper trough splitting away and behind it, you're going to have a surge coming off south america, a low (possibly mid or upper) cutting across Florida and a wave moving in from a little farther north than the tropical surge. So basically we're going to end up with high pressure aloft sitting atop the interesection of a tropical wave and tropical surge. Either it forms or it doesn't, but the opportunity is there. To say to stick a fork in something that hasn't even started yet is crazy. And for anyone who says, "I don't see anything there", that would be correct. Nothing is. Surge and wave intersection would be Tuesday or Wednesday. Possible landfall might be Friday or Saturday. And this will happen quick if it does. There's not going to be 72 hours of advance warning. It's going to be more like Humberto where people would say, "wow, I didn't see that coming." (That's because they didn't pay attention to the signs or storm2k.) Now we don't know whether something is or isn't going to form, but if it does, look out.

Steve <---- Putting actual thought into the post and leaving the cockiness and absolutes out.

Aren't these kind of posts (name calling and all) illegal on this board?
It's only tropical weather folks. What's going to happen is going to happen
no matter what I or anyone else posts. We just all have different opinions.

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, I know "I Agree" posts are a waste of space, and not a lot of people care if a non-met agrees.

But for Steve's post right above mine- I agree.

[skysummit]

12z GFS @ 108 Hours...low south of Louisiana.

[xironman]

The convection over the Bahamas is left over from a system that was on the TWO a few days ago, http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98023&start=20. I am of the train of thought that this is what enters the gulf to become the system. Staying low enough to avoid the worst of the shear.

[skysummit]

12z GFS @ 120 Hours...strengthening low south of southwest Louisiana.

[NateFLA]

This moisture off the coast of Florida is messing me up for classes today at UF... somebody make it move!

[skysummit]

12z GFS @ 138 Hours...low off the coast of south Texas.

[skysummit]

The GFS still isn't showing this purely tropical in nature....keeping a low pressure system over it at both the mid and upper layers. Wouldn't steering be a little different if it were purely tropical in nature, and did have an anticyclone at the upper layers rather than a low?

[miamicanes177]

And the GFS is NOT developing anything from the caribbean moving into the GOM. The low being developed by the GFS is from the pile of mess currently located off the east coast of Florida. It has it moving over the length of florida, crossing the loop current and strengthening. This is a reasonable solution from the GFS in my opinion.

[Wx_Warrior]

Another to sweat out this weekend

[skysummit]

12z GFS @ 150 Hours...low inland near Corpus Christi.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I haven't seen Bastardi address this since this weekend, but from watching his videos, a few of his rabbit out a hat" storms started with a blob of storms induced by an ULL. But what really sets it off is the arrival of a tropical wave, maybe like the one in the Caribbean, that brings in enough moisture and heat that all the thunderstorms eventually warm the environment aloft, if the shear isn't unreasonable, and the ULL that started the whole thing gains enough separation that instead of shearing the system (too badly, anyway) it provides some short wave ridging aloft that helps the developing hybrid system become fully tropical.

Having just seen the JB video, although I left out his talk of impending "Endless Summer" (because Indian Summer isn't PC) and a few longer term climate items, I predicted his discussion pretty well.

[MiamiensisWx]

Low-level convergence is slowly increasing, while convective parameters could become more favorable. There is an upper low W of Hispaniola that has been providing UL divergence. Additionally, thunderstorms have been persistent near the E and SE Bahamas - click here for the recent shortwave imagery. Satellite obs suggest shear may slowly relax, and the latest CIMSS shear chart (click here) indicates decreasing shear. It will be interesting to watch this area over the next 24 hours.

Low-level convergence:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

850 mbar relative vorticity is decent:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

[Steve]

Thanks Ed. He was the one who went out and said a hurricane would hit the US in 6-10 days (now 3-7), and it would probably be a major. That's enough for me to pay attention to the synoptics.

>>Aren't these kind of posts (name calling and all) illegal on this board?
It's only tropical weather folks. What's going to happen is going to happen
no matter what I or anyone else posts. We just all have different opinions.

No name calling, just commentary. It just seems like attenion [edited: getting] to me for someone to post (matter-of-factly or otherwise), "There isn't anything there to worry about"; "There's nothing there"; "Stick a fork in it"; "ZOMG! It's going to be a Cat 5 hitting the worst possible area!!!!"; or those using absolutes "a system WILL develop there or no system CAN develop there"

I'm just saying that if you or anyone else (I'm talking bad posters too, a category that doesn't include you) wants to deal in absolutes or be the "first one on the block" to have a recorded opinion that will soon be forgotten anyway, what's the point? The thread is to discuss things that might occur to bring our country it's next tropical threat (billed by one Pro Met as likely a major at landfall - first major in 2 years to hit the US). If you do or don't think anything is going to form, then say why or why not. That's not too much to ask. Posters generally don't do that good of a job policing themselves, but if we want a quality board with input from those with all levels of experience and/or education, then people should lay the proverbial goods on the table. JMO

TPS

[Ed Mahmoud]

Even if the GFS doesn't ever see a purely tropical entity, the fact it predicts anything is a sign, that while nothing is guaranteed.

And, again, Humberto was a non-tropical entity, badly sheared, the remnants of an old frontal boundary, when it was in the Gulf near Florida.


Not saying potential Jerry is Humberto Part Deux, just saying I don't see how one can declare for certain nothing will happen. Nothing may happen, but enough models are suggesting something, and there is at least limited pro met support, to make it foolhardy to make definitive predictions.

On the other hand, starting from scratch as a non-tropical system, the odds of a major hurricane seem rather remote.


Also, potential landfall forecasts of a system that hasn't formed yet, when one doesn't know the starting point or the strength, also seems like an iffy practice.

[cpdaman]

how bout the low near melbourne

[skysummit]

I believe I may have found something. Pull up the KMLB radar site (Melbourne) and look at Base Velocity 1, and animate it. Now look very closely off the east coast of Florida half way between Titusville and Daytona...appx 45 miles offshore. A low level circulation is evident.

For those using GR3, this should be pretty east to see.

[jasons2k]

Let's stay on topic please, this thread is very close to going astray. Thanks.