Decaying cold front off US Atlantic coast

[mattpetre]

Well well, this morning it looks more and more like the low that may develop is a feature that will come across Florida from an old front into the gulf over the next few days... This setup is quite a bit different than Humberto and should bring quite a bit more attention to itself before becoming a real threat if it does. I have been too bullish on some very minor features in the gulf lately, but that is mostly because the gulf is still the main area that would be conducive to good development at this moment. The areas carribean and atlantic are just a little to hostile right now...

So my latest prediction:

A depression will form 150 miles WSW of Tampa on Thurday around noon... just a guess... I'll make more predictions if that comes to fruition.

So far this year I said Dean and Felix would be more north than they ever were (totally wrong on path) -2pts
However, I believed very early that Dean and Felix would get as strong as they did (correct in general on intensities) 2pts
I predicted Erin's more northerly path and intensity (moderate TS getting stronger as she moved in) 2pts
Didn't have a clue as to Gabrielle other than what JB, Ortt and other pros had to say -1pt
Right on Humberto for a week before landfall on both path and intensity (bonus for lack of agreement) 3pts
Wrong about two other possibilities in the GOM after Humberto -2pts;
Totally wrong about Ingrid (along with a lot of folks) -1pt;

That puts me at +1pts this year on SWAG (Scientific Wild A## Guessing) predictions... I'll take that considering I'm learning a lot this year...

[cpdaman]

well there is a 1015 weak low east of n. central florida

http://www.weatherunderground.com/satel ... 1k/US.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like something, I don't know what, that is going on down east of Melbourne.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[skysummit]

I'm seeing two areas of broad circulation....one over Florida, and another east of Florida. The one east of Florida is just 'beginning" to show signs of a twist in the past 3 images or so from GHCC CONUS imagery.

[HurricaneGirl]

The rain here since this morning is insane. I'm about 1.5 miles from the beach and these cells keep training across the area. Right now the rain is coming in sideways.

[sevenleft]

The low east of Daytona is a meso low that is embedded along the frontal boundary. I don't think there is much potential for it to do anything "interesting".

[storms in NC]

The blob next to fla is being blown away . You can see the shear working on this big time right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Not the latest image, but a couple ago...



Models are latching onto something developing in this general area.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/07091712/74.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07091712/86.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam/fcst/archive/07091718/4.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07091718/58.html

[Ptarmigan]

this is the only area that I can see developing and moving into the Gulf

It is also the closest to the Gulf. I have been hearing on the local news that it would come from the east and we should keep an eye on the frontal boundries. Hurricane Alicia formed that way.

[SouthFloridawx]

The blob next to fla is being blown away . You can see the shear working on this big time right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

As the trough pulls out, we should see a gradual decrease in sheer.

[Epsilon_Fan]

if you look at the visible sat loop there seems to be a LLC forming off the Fla/GA coast... I'd say this should be an Invest ASAP

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

this is off central fl coast and pushing eastward (for now) it is also starting to mesh/unite with the low level turning and convection in the central bahamas

could be a party in the NW bahamas tommorrow