Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas
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- gatorcane
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Re: Model runs & Discussion for GOM - Bahamas (Threads merged)
MiamiensisWx you nailed this one.
In fact if development happens in the Bahamas as it looks like it is trying to do -- watch out East Coast of Florida and South Florida. A system can rapidly organize in that area with the Gulf stream current showing water temps well into the mid 80s.
In fact if development happens in the Bahamas as it looks like it is trying to do -- watch out East Coast of Florida and South Florida. A system can rapidly organize in that area with the Gulf stream current showing water temps well into the mid 80s.
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Re: Model runs & Discussion for GOM - Bahamas (Threads merged)
There will not be enough time for rapid deepening after anaylizing the upper air synoptics. Just not enough real estate available for intensification. Now, on the other side of the state....well that's a different story. If it possibly stall and organize closer to the Turks and Caicos, it may be something to deal with on the approach to Fla. But that has rarely happened in the past, not to say that it could not, but that scenario in this case is unlikely.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: Model runs & Discussion for GOM - Bahamas (Threads merged)
I could be incorrect, but it looks like the main convective "focus" is occurring further south. There doesn't appear to be a low-level circulation with the NE Florida area, so I would not be surprised if any slow development (assuming it actually takes place) occurs in the Bahamas. Mesoscale isn't an inhibitive factor against convection from the C Bahamas south to the Turks and Caicos/W to the Straits of Florida. I tend to believe this region may be the best location for a possible broad sfc low. The best low-level convergence is situated in this area. I don't see rapid organization, but some slow development could take place closer to the FL Keys/Straits prior to FL exit and Gulf entry. The precipitation will be beneficial for interior southern FL (I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Lake Okeechobee relief).
The diurnal maximum is working in convection's favor:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html
Low-level convergence is better further S in the Bahamas, too:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html
Summary: It's nothing where we should lose any sleep, and it certainly doesn't deserve hype, but we should keep one eye open. Personally, I don't think the NE Florida system will organize so far to the N. I think the possible "focus" for slow development will zero in toward the Bahamas. The "popcorn" convection is firing under a colder upper-air environment and more instability exists in the region.
The diurnal maximum is working in convection's favor:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html
Low-level convergence is better further S in the Bahamas, too:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html
Summary: It's nothing where we should lose any sleep, and it certainly doesn't deserve hype, but we should keep one eye open. Personally, I don't think the NE Florida system will organize so far to the N. I think the possible "focus" for slow development will zero in toward the Bahamas. The "popcorn" convection is firing under a colder upper-air environment and more instability exists in the region.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Model runs & Discussion for GOM - Bahamas (Threads merged)
gatorcane wrote:MiamiensisWx you nailed this one.
In fact if development happens in the Bahamas as it looks like it is trying to do -- watch out East Coast of Florida and South Florida. A system can rapidly organize in that area with the Gulf stream current showing water temps well into the mid 80s.
While water temps are favorable...the upper level winds will not be favorable for anything but a sheared system. The upper low that is going to dig down into the eastern GoM is going to keep anything that tries to form in-check trough late week.
If the models are right, the low that moves thru FL in 48 hours will be moving thru 40 kts of southerly shear. Even if they are off by 20 kts...its still a lot of shear...more than enough to keep it from deepening rapidly.
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Re: Model runs & Discussion for GOM - Bahamas (Threads merged)
Air Force Met wrote:While water temps are favorable...the upper level winds will not be favorable for anything but a sheared system. The upper low that is going to dig down into the eastern GoM is going to keep anything that tries to form in-check trough late week.
If the models are right, the low that moves thru FL in 48 hours will be moving thru 40 kts of southerly shear. Even if they are off by 20 kts...its still a lot of shear...more than enough to keep it from deepening rapidly.
Thanks, AFM. It's good to put rational data into our minds, but where do you see the upper low? Do you see it over NE Florida?
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Re: Model runs & Discussion for GOM - Bahamas (Threads merged)
TheShrimper wrote:There will not be enough time for rapid deepening after anaylizing the upper air synoptics. Just not enough real estate available for intensification. Now, on the other side of the state....well that's a different story. If it possibly stall and organize closer to the Turks and Caicos, it may be something to deal with on the approach to Fla. But that has rarely happened in the past, not to say that it could not, but that scenario in this case is unlikely.
Far be it for me to be one who is apt to jump to conclusions about "possibilities", but if this were to start to from east of the Bahamas or in the Southern Bahamas or even Central Bahamas; there is plenty of real estate available.
Remember where Katrina really started 23.1/75.1; not real far away from Florida and it came in as a Cat 1.
Oh, as usual; I am not buying into this solution, however, I don't subscribe to the statement that there is not enough time for RI.
I just don't see it happening but not from a lack of real estate.
Shear, UL's and TUTT's or any of the other wonders that keeps deadening systems would keep it from happening.
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Re: Model runs & Discussion for GOM - Bahamas (Threads merged)
MiamiensisWx wrote:Air Force Met wrote:While water temps are favorable...the upper level winds will not be favorable for anything but a sheared system. The upper low that is going to dig down into the eastern GoM is going to keep anything that tries to form in-check trough late week.
If the models are right, the low that moves thru FL in 48 hours will be moving thru 40 kts of southerly shear. Even if they are off by 20 kts...its still a lot of shear...more than enough to keep it from deepening rapidly.
Thanks, AFM. It's good to put rational data into our minds, but where do you see the upper low? Do you see it over NE Florida?
Yes...N Fl and SE GA in an elongated trof...part of the longwave...continuing to dig southward where it will cutoff over the next day or so and be a shear monster for the whole week.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:Katrina also had favorable upper air conditions... this thing is almost certainly not going to have favorable conditions
Right now, as I stated in my evening PNJ blog post, a TS at most is all I can see from this
I agree and second this. I would add: A highly sheared...baroclinically enhanced type tropical system at that (in other words...the initial deepening will be due to baroclinic type forcing...not pure tropical deepening).
Edit: Let me add - If it develops I think it will be a TS due to gradient alone...because of the high to its north. It won't have to work too hard.
Last edited by Air Force Met on Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Model runs & Discussion for GOM - Bahamas (Threads merged)
Yes...N Fl and SE GA in an elongated trof...part of the longwave...continuing to dig southward where it will cutoff over the next day or so and be a shear monster for the whole week
I thought the idea (if JB idea is right) ULL starts t-storms, and provides enough divergence to lower surface pressures, then moves away from lower surface pressures, as it has a forward speed a tad faster than surface feature it generates, then weak tropical wave from Caribbean piles in with added heat and moisture, continued t-storms warm environment aloft via latent heat condensation, and as ULL continues to outpace, eventually get into an area of upper motion and outflow of system becoming warm core.
But it is all about ULL gaining separation, so it still provides upper support, but not much shear.
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So you don't think ULL will back West faster than any surface lowering of pressure it induces?
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re: Re:
Air Force Met wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:Katrina also had favorable upper air conditions... this thing is almost certainly not going to have favorable conditions
Right now, as I stated in my evening PNJ blog post, a TS at most is all I can see from this
I agree and second this. I would add: A highly sheared...baroclinically enhanced type tropical system at that (in other words...the initial deepening will be due to baroclinic type forcing...not pure tropical deepening).
Yep, the position of that UL is going to be a key factor for intensity. I agree with both of you. If that upper low stalls out like it looks to do once it cuts off from the jet stream, good night to development chances. They key will be: where does the upper level low go?
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can we really get much baroclinic enhancement with a westward moving TC? That usually happens when we have a very strong trough advancing to the east when the TC is downwind of the trough. In this case, the TC would be upwind of the trough and the QG support just is not going to be the same
if this has to rely upon purely baroclinic forcing, this may be fortunate to ever see a name then
if this has to rely upon purely baroclinic forcing, this may be fortunate to ever see a name then
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:Katrina also had favorable upper air conditions... this thing is almost certainly not going to have favorable conditions
Right now, as I stated in my evening PNJ blog post, a TS at most is all I can see from this
And if I read correctly in the blog; a TS in the GOM and not for Fla.
That would calm down the barrage of "Fla is getting a storm from the Bahamas" talk that is probabaly about to start.
(A least maybe a little

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Re: Model runs & Discussion for GOM - Bahamas (Threads merged)
Maybe Wxman57 will post his thoughts to confirm the suspicions of the other Storm2k pro mets that this will be nothing but a sheared tropical storm at best. Wxman57 had been concerned of a major hurricane in the GOM.
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Re: Model runs & Discussion for GOM - Bahamas (Threads merged)
If it is purely baroclinic, it would never be named by definition, right?
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Re: Model runs & Discussion for GOM - Bahamas (Threads merged)
Ed Mahmoud wrote: I thought the idea (if JB idea is right) ULL starts t-storms, and provides enough divergence to lower surface pressures, then moves away from lower surface pressures, as it has a forward speed a tad faster than surface feature it generates, then weak tropical wave from Caribbean piles in with added heat and moisture, continued t-storms warm environment aloft via latent heat condensation, and as ULL continues to outpace, eventually get into an area of upper motion and outflow of system becoming warm core.
But it is all about ULL gaining separation, so it still provides upper support, but not much shear.
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So you don't think ULL will back West faster than any surface lowering of pressure it induces?
I buy the first part but not the last. I don't see the upper low backing away. I think it will be the kicker to get the sfc low started, but I think the sfc low will have to contend with it...and may have to work thru it. I don't see the upper low backing away anytime soon. If it can sink south and whatever develops can work west of the low...then the upper environment will be really good...but that won't happen till later...like the weekend...and once it is in the central GOM...
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:can we really get much baroclinic enhancement with a westward moving TC? That usually happens when we have a very strong trough advancing to the east when the TC is downwind of the trough. In this case, the TC would be upwind of the trough and the QG support just is not going to be the same
if this has to rely upon purely baroclinic forcing, this may be fortunate to ever see a name then
Wasn't Tammy baroclinically enhanced? Maybe this will be similar.
Last edited by Jam151 on Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Model runs & Discussion for GOM - Bahamas (Threads merged)
Ed Mahmoud wrote:If it is purely baroclinic, it would never be named by definition, right?
It can get a name if it is warm core. Plenty of TS's have started off by baroclinic means.
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