Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

Stratosphere747 · #921 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:06 pm

That seemed to be the concern, after the system was in the CGOM.

#922 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:06 pm

>>This system really does have me concerned. With a ridge building to the north and a slow west movement beneath it, it would seem like quite a favorable environment for TC development/intensification. The "fly in the ointment" is that upper low....

Thing is, everything this season that's come off the continent and dropped into the Gulf has split. I'm sure you've looked at the WV several million times today, but run the 30 frame on fast. Looks to me that the upper trough now just nosing off the panhandle is already in the middle of a squeeze play. That thing isn't going to cut off and sit there all week (not saying you're saying that FWIW). It's going to be the "shear monger" precursor to an upper high. I don't really give a **** what any of the models are saying when you can watch the evolution on a satellite run.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

I understand your concern in Texas and tend to share it for your state's coastline. JMO

Steve

#923 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:08 pm

00z GFS 200mb at 102 hours

Light Upper Winds in WGOM.

jhamps10 · #924 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:08 pm

gfs in another stall phase of the low between 90 and 108.

jhamps10 · #925 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:12 pm

114, still stalled folks.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114s.gif

#926 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:12 pm

00z GFS 200mb at 114 hours

WGOM with light upper winds,EGOM with strong upper winds.

Stratosphere747 · #927 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:13 pm

Steve wrote:>>This system really does have me concerned. With a ridge building to the north and a slow west movement beneath it, it would seem like quite a favorable environment for TC development/intensification. The "fly in the ointment" is that upper low....

Thing is, everything this season that's come off the continent and dropped into the Gulf has split. I'm sure you've looked at the WV several million times today, but run the 30 frame on fast. Looks to me that the upper trough now just nosing off the panhandle is already in the middle of a squeeze play. That thing isn't going to cut off and sit there all week (not saying you're saying that FWIW). It's going to be the "shear monger" precursor to an upper high. I don't really give a **** what any of the models are saying when you can watch the evolution on a satellite run.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

I understand your concern in Texas and tend to share it for your state's coastline. JMO

Steve

Some of the parameters would cause some concern. I'm going to stay neutral until we at least get something going.

Steve - Also haven't you been touching on the teleconnection ideas a bit?

#928 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:13 pm

jhamps10 wrote:114, still stalled folks.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114s.gif

I wouldn't say it's completely stalled. It's moving, just VERY SLOWLY.

jhamps10 · #929 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:17 pm

132, FINALLY kicks it into gear... and points it towards Houston/Galveston area...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132s.gif

#930 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:18 pm

00z GFS 200mb at 132 hours

Shear increases in WGOM.

wxmann_91 · #931 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z GFS 200mb at 114 hours

WGOM with light upper winds,EGOM with strong upper winds.

FWIW, the 12Z Euro had westerly shear vectors over Louisiana at hr 120... (vs. the easterly shear vectors the GFS is showing)

Clearly, there's some model disagreement.

#932 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:25 pm

Skysummit,what is your take on the 00z GFS?

jhamps10 · #933 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:25 pm

138, actually looks like it moves it EAST a bit....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138s.gif

#934 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:26 pm

Gone at 144 hours, but what ever remains is situated just offshore Cameron Parish, LA. The high shear in this run is probably why it's dissipating the system. Let's forget about forecasted shear and storm intensity at that time frame, and all we have left is continued model agreement on gulf development over the next few days.

In that perspective, this run was pretty close to the 18z run. Dang I wish I could stay up for the Euro! LOL

jhamps10 · #935 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:27 pm

150 makes landfall near Beaumont/port arthur...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150s.gif

although I will say that it loses it at 144 for a frame, and then this at 150 at landfall.

jhamps10 · #936 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:29 pm

skysummit wrote:Gone at 144 hours, but what ever remains is situated just offshore Cameron Parish, LA. The high shear in this run is probably why it's dissipating the system. Let's forget about forecasted shear and storm intensity at that time frame, and all we have left is continued model agreement on gulf development over the next few days.

In that perspective, this run was pretty close to the 18z run. Dang I wish I could stay up for the Euro! LOL

bingo, it was very close to the 18z.

I too wish that I could stay up for EURO, but I got to get up at 6:30 to get ready for classes, so I'll be hitting the sack here in a few, but my opinions on 00z GFS, no big changes that I see. In fact gives me more confidence that we see something brew out in the GOM this week.

Wx_Warrior · #937 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:30 pm

When is EURO....? 2:30 Central?

jhamps10 · #938 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:32 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:When is EURO....? 2:30 Central?

yeah, I think so anyway.

#939 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:33 pm

>>Some of the parameters would cause some concern. I'm going to stay neutral until we at least get something going.

Yeah. I'm mostly neutral, but I see the way from ingredients to development as has happened already a few times this year (and in years gone by as noted earlier). Too many people will start posting about how nothing is going to be able to get going with all that shear around, but that ignores the proverbial forest for the trees. It is a temporary impediment (though it could provide some of the spark as 57 noted) at best. Even where I disagree with AFM and Derek about potential, I think they alluded to improving conditions mid-week/central Gulf (guessing they're talking +/- 72-96 hours = Thursday/Friday). I've got a suspicion that if we do get a surface low, there well may be ample opportunity for development - maybe 2 days or more - which we didn't see with Erin or Humberto. This simply means to me that there should be more opportunity for significant development. Humberto was a late bloomer, luckily for those in its path.

One other note about possible intensity: look at the recent posts about the weather in Jacksonville. There is energy there to be sure. You don't wring (sp?) 7" of rainfall on Jacksonville every day.

>>Steve - Also haven't you been touching on the teleconnection ideas a bit?

Yeah, I've been following them. There was kind of an indication for a 1-2 punch to the SE (be it Gulf or Atlantic). Nari came up from the south and hit Korea (similar to what maybe could have happend with a system had one originated, in the SW Caribbean). Wipha, last I checked, was now progged to round Shanghai before hitting North Korea. That would indicate a pretty strong ridge into the SE US. I think the WPAC/WATL teleconnection is better for upper-air and mid-level patterns than say intensity, but sometimes there is a parallel*. There are a few things that are going to intersect and then have to simplify (may happen as upper low/TUTT/split backs away).

* This is one of those times we don't want the intensity parallel (would be ugly IMHO). WIPHA has intensified into a 135k storm (gusts to 165k!!!!!) and it's going to hit China per the projected path. The latest advisory (#12) takes Wipha north of the Island of Taiwan. Should it hit Taiwan, Gulf/SE Ridge will be even stronger than progged and could indicate a central texas or even south texas coast landfall. It's progged to cross land around 28N (corresponding roughly to Freeport/Matagora/Galveston/Texas City/etc.). I'll give it a look tomorrow I guess and see if anything changes.

That teleconnection doesn't always work, but sometimes elements of it are there. It's been right too many times in non-El Nino years to ignore completely IMHO.

Steve

Wx_Warrior · #940 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:38 pm

I haven't read too many on here that say nothing will get going. Most on here jump on anything that moves. I think we all agree that the soup is ready to be cooked. Someone just needs to put the pot on the stove and BAM, there's your storm!

I just hope whatever forms stays down on the food chain and doesnt bring too much kick. Lil ol Humberto was enough for me this season!

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