Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[xironman]

A question on shear, on Thursday the low may be going in the same direction as the upper level winds http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_200_048m.gif, does that somewhat mitigate the effects of them?

[boca]

It doesn't look like extreme South Florida will get much rain out of this system because were in the dry slot today and this weather system really isn't moving too fast. The rain looks to be West Palm northward today. My 2 cents.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We need the rain. But who knows we'll probably
have wildfires burning the entire state next spring
because of a dry rainy season.

Anyway, the discussion earlier on a previous page
mentioned a low closing off. I do thing this will
bring some heavy rains to Florida on Thursday,
but it seems to not want to move before then and
keep it dry and hot here today, except right on the east
coast near melbourne (where there is light rain now).

[Vortex]

Developing low East of S.FL Winds are now due North in Fort lauderdale and NNW in Miami

[boca]

We need the rain. But who knows we'll probably
have wildfires burning the entire state next spring
because of a dry rainy season.

Anyway, the discussion earlier on a previous page
mentioned a low closing off. I do thing this will
bring some heavy rains to Florida on Thursday,
but it seems to not want to move before then and
keep it dry and hot here today, except right on the east
coast near melbourne (where there is light rain now).

I agree with you I think well get the rain tomorrow providing the low drops SW because here in S FL are rain chance is 60%.We have a pretty good dry slot over us right now.

[Portastorm]

Developing low East of S.FL Winds are now due North in Fort lauderdale and NNW in Miami

And so it begins ...
(sorry, I just always wanted to post one of these forboding-sounding notes!)

[lrak]

Developing low East of S.FL Winds are now due North in Fort lauderdale and NNW in Miami

And so it begins ...
(sorry, I just always wanted to post one of these forboding-sounding notes!)

developing, meaning TD by today?

[alienstorm]

The LLC (weak and broad) is developing between Miami and Freeport, east of Ft. Lauderdale. this is basically stationary and the question becomes will it move north as the Canadian is showing or west to west southwest into South Florida. Personally I would hope toward the west southwest so we can get much needed rain. If it moves north than very minimal rain on the lake.

[caneman]

Yeah, I'm surprised this area hasn't already been mareked as invest with so much model support and the look it is taking on.

[N2FSU]

Good radar loop of the rotation off of Florida:

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USFL0438&animate=true

[HURAKAN]

[boca]

Looks like its between Binimi and Grand Bahama not moving.

[Meso]

12z NAM

[Stormcenter]

Wasn't this suppose to develop further north off the coast of FL.? If this is not the case then this may just cross Fl. and head west or wsw across the GOM straight into MX.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Nam don't moe this thing much at all..Let alone to TX..

[Vortex]

Expect Invest anytime..model runs should be interesting.

[fci]

Developing low East of S.FL Winds are now due North in Fort lauderdale and NNW in Miami

And so it begins ...
(sorry, I just always wanted to post one of these forboding-sounding notes!)

If you REALLY want to go for it, you need to add several "eeks" and use the word "folks" a lot.


Here we go FOLKS.....

['CaneFreak]

Wasn't this suppose to develop further north off the coast of FL.? If this is not the case then this may just cross Fl. and head west or wsw across the GOM straight into MX.

I dont think this is going to Mexico. As long as this thing remains fairly weak, it will go with the low level flow. The low-level flow right now would not quite take it into Mexico. It would steer it to the southwest and then north around the back side of the trough. The proximity of the UL to the system SHOULD keep it in check.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[ronjon]

Little doubt that low pressure has formed south of Freeport and east of Ft Laud. Right now it is weak near 1014 mb but the RAD signiture has improved since this morning. There is about 20 kts of shear over the system now which is probably too high for significant development. This low can move either west across S FL (GFS) or north along the east coast and then pivot west across north-central FL into the NE GOM (NAM).

[Stormcenter]

ABNT20 KNHC 181523
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA EASTWARD FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.