Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[miamicanes177]

NRL has Invest 93L up...discuss here

[jhamps10]

12z GFS looks to point towards a Nola landfall, or far SW Mississippi Gulf Coast.

[MiamiensisWx]

93L is the developing sfc low E of Miami, FL.

Interestingly, the operational GFS shows much weaker 200 mbar winds over the Gulf in the short term. 200 mbar winds are near ~10-15 kts around ~66 hours with a nice upper-level support. Additionally, the upper low is much weaker around ~36 hours (500 mbar here). I'm starting to wonder if this run may reflect a longer-term trend, especially since the upper low is actually ventilating the system in the Bahamas (per satellite obs and CIMSS shear charts). The shear appears to be overdone in the previous runs, and the new sfc low has become better defined off Miami, FL.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

If the trend continues, I would not discount some slow development prior to FL "landfall", although the greatest organization will probably occur in the Gulf of Mexico. This system is a great learning tool where it is critical to watch current trends and "nowcast". Additionally, it's 93L now, so I think we should slowly discount earlier model runs and lean toward a new solution (earlier development and a better UL environment in the Bahamas/GOM).

[jhamps10]

25.8N 79.2W

064
WHXX01 KWBC 181600
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1600 UTC TUE SEP 18 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20070918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070918 1200 070919 0000 070919 1200 070920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 79.2W 26.0N 80.8W 26.2N 82.5W 26.3N 83.9W
BAMD 25.8N 79.2W 26.2N 80.0W 26.8N 81.0W 27.5N 82.2W
BAMM 25.8N 79.2W 26.0N 80.6W 26.2N 81.9W 26.4N 83.3W
LBAR 25.8N 79.2W 26.2N 80.3W 27.1N 81.5W 28.2N 82.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070920 1200 070921 1200 070922 1200 070923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.4N 85.3W 26.9N 87.9W 28.0N 91.0W 29.9N 94.3W
BAMD 28.0N 83.6W 28.7N 86.8W 29.6N 90.5W 31.7N 95.0W
BAMM 26.6N 84.6W 27.0N 87.5W 27.8N 90.7W 29.5N 94.2W
LBAR 29.6N 83.3W 31.7N 84.3W 32.8N 85.5W 33.7N 86.5W
SHIP 50KTS 67KTS 76KTS 80KTS
DSHP 45KTS 61KTS 70KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.8N LONCUR = 79.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 78.0W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 24.5N LONM24 = 76.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[caneman]

I think the thing to note from looking at this run is the amount of rainfall Florida looks to be in store for more so than an actual landfall point. Unless of course this gets a lot stronger than indicated.

[punkyg]

How fast is 93L moving?

[Sanibel]

Clear rotation at surface level on radar just south Grand Bahama:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


(We need to make up a drought deficit from the High that was over us all summer)

[Stormcenter]

This has all the makings of a sub tropical system or maybe tropical that will have to deal with a ton of dry air to it's north and west along with shear. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[JTD]

Look at Ships! Brings it up to 80 knots at the end of the run! How credible do you suppose that is? Of note, of course it was way overdone with Ingrid and I know that it assumes this to be a t.d. already.

[tracyswfla]

Bring on the rain! We need it.

[CrazyC83]

Recon already flying out? Maybe TD10 today?

[miamicanes177]

3, 9, 1 , 9, 7,

SHIPS shear forecast for hours 48-96 And yes that is 1kt of shear in 72 hours and below 10kts the entire time period

[HeeBGBz]

This should liven up my otherwise dull week. I don't want another Katrina, but a little tropical breezyness of the lower magnitudes would be okay by me. Then again, I'm a bit of a freak.

[Nimbus]

Real serious situation we have developing here. Since the track could effect so much of the gulf coastline. Glad they finely got it up as an invest. If the circulation continues closing off I don't think it will be long before the NHC upgrades it?

[Chacor]

Recon already flying out? Maybe TD10 today?

Far as I know, not scheduled until Thursday.

[Stormcenter]

This should liven up my otherwise dull week. I don't want another Katrina, but a little tropical breezyness of the lower magnitudes would be okay by me. Then again, I'm a bit of a freak.

Maybe I'm in the minority here but I can find a lot of others to do to "liven"
my week other than a problem from the tropics.

[MWatkins]

Look at Ships! Brings it up to 80 knots at the end of the run! How credible do you suppose that is? Of note, of course it was way overdone with Ingrid and I know that it assumes this to be a t.d. already.

Looks like SHIPS is basing most of the intensity increase on two things, increased SST potential along track (on the SHIPS track from the BAMM model) SST potential is up to 30C...and a reduction of westerly shear from a current value of 25 knots down to between 1 and 10 knots later in the period.

Also...BAMM is not the best track for SHIPS overall. Look for the 18Z to run against the 12Z CONU (if available in time)....

MW

[Wx_Warrior]

I would think too early for a TD today (tuesday).

[Weatherboy1]

How strong do you think this thing could get before making an initial "landfall" in FL? Seems to me it might not even get to TD status given the limited amount of water between it and the FL coast (although if I had to identify a potential center, I'd be a bit east of the latest model runs -- maybe 78.5W)

[Sanibel]

Just struck me that this is a Katrina-type track. However the atmosphere is much different than Katrina with more shear and drier air.