Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Steve]

Interesting post Nimbus. I don't know if the GFS 12z run is legit or not; not sure if it is based on probable setup. I'm leaning toward discounting it in favor of a farther west solution, but I guess we'll know in a few days.
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>>WAIT a minute here canefreak, I thought high ULW meant shear, and in turn would be very unfavorable for development.... am I wrong on that.

It depends on where the shearzone is in relation to the (sub)tropical low. Many posters on here (not you) get hung up with "oh look at that upper level low, or look at that TUTT! That means nothing can form or conditions are unfavorable." Here's a big Red X [tm] on that. Sometimes that is correct. Other times, it's exactly the opposite in that these upper features which appear to be unfavorable end up doing the evacuating of the air into the upper atmosphere allowing the storm engine to churn and the low to deepen. It just depends on the relative position. For instance, a tropical low isn't going to cross a shear zone without being somewhat blown to pieces (occasionally in instances such as Katrina, the low level fights back after the conditions improve). But sometimes a low level feature will move in tandem with a backing away upper feature allowing an outflow channel. And what is always next to an upper low? High pressure and light winds aloft. So you have to look at it in the context of how the ULL/TUTT will affect the low level system. Does it shear or ventilate/evaucate it? Does it harbor a pattern reversal that will allow ridging to its east (position of the low level circulation) providing more ideal conditions ato the low level circulation?

In a nutshell? It depends.

Steve

[MiamiensisWx]

Radar and satellite indicates a low-level circulation may be gradually closing off, so we could see a small surprise. If it doesn't become a TD prior to FL "landfall", lack of room won't be the problem. Remember Katrina and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane - they rapidly intensified within a smaller distance (Gulf Stream/Straits of Florida). This system won't be close to those storms, but "lack of room" isn't an issue against slow development. Shear is a bigger factor here.

Miami radar

GOES visible loop

Look at the increasing convection around the broad circulation.

[tracyswfla]

Radar and satellite indicates a low-level circulation may be gradually closing off, so we could see a small surprise. If it doesn't become a TD prior to FL "landfall", lack of room won't be the problem. Remember Katrina and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane - they rapidly intensified within a smaller distance (Gulf Stream/Straits of Florida). This system won't be close to those storms, but "lack of room" isn't an issue against slow development. Shear is a bigger factor here.

Miami radar

GOES visible loop

Look at the increasing convection around the broad circulation.

Yes and let's not forget what Humberto did last week. This season is whacked!!

[Wx_Warrior]

I would want a more West solution too if i resided in SELA...Im not jumping all over this GFS run either...Ill wait for 2:30 EURO then 18z GFS...We are within a week so some legitimacy does have to be taken into consideration.

[mattpetre]

93L has the looks of something that could get pretty strong. A long tracker across the GOM could be a recipe for disaster as far as my plans next weekend... thoughts on how long it would take this storm to reach TX if it does form and if it does track in that direction? I was guessing about next Tuesday or so, think that is about right?

['CaneFreak]

ok, before the server crashes....EVERYONE CALM DOWN....there IS a BROAD circulation starting to form east of Florida. Its not that big of a deal RIGHT NOW...we have plenty of time to watch it. Things could change later in the forecast period. I think we are up to about 3 or 4 posts per minute right now....so just...CALM DOWN.

[Johnny]

It looks like JB is pretty set on a hit somewhere along the Texas coastline on Sunday. That's what he pretty much said in 'Long Ranger' video this morning.

[Stormcenter]

93L has the looks of something that could get pretty strong. A long tracker across the GOM could be a recipe for disaster as far as my plans next weekend... thoughts on how long it would take this storm to reach TX if it does form and if it does track in that direction? I was guessing about next Tuesday or so, think that is about right?

Please explain to me how 93L has the "look" of something that could get pretty strong?
I read the same things from many posters about TS Gabrielle despite abundant shear around
the system as with 93L. The shear was suppose to decrease in that storm but that never happened. The conditions right now do not favor a "strong" system and I have doubts that they ever will. So what are you seeing and how strong do you think it will be?

[HollynLA]

ok, before the server crashes....EVERYONE CALM DOWN....there IS a BROAD circulation starting to form east of Florida. Its not that big of a deal RIGHT NOW...we have plenty of time to watch it. Things could change later in the forecast period. I think we are up to about 3 or 4 posts per minute right now....so just...CALM DOWN.

This happens everytime a new invest/storm forms, especially one that is only days from landfall. We really don't need the finger wagging.

[jhamps10]

first sat image from NRL.

[mattpetre]

It looks like JB is pretty set on a hit somewhere along the Texas coastline on Sunday. That's what he pretty much said in 'Long Ranger' video this morning.

After looking at the models I just can't see it progressing quite that quickly. Will be interesting for sure though. The day Humberto formed was the longest day I've had so far this year (yet we in W. Houston didn't even see a drop of rain.)

[chadtm80]

Code: Select all

Invest #93L Track History
Date Position Moving Speed Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
1200 TUE SEP 18  25.8N 79.2W WNW 7 (6) 29.88 (1012) 23 (20)
0600 TUE SEP 18  25.5N 78.6W WNW 7 (6) 29.91 (1013) 23 (20)
0000 TUE SEP 18  25.2N 78.0W WNW 9 (8) 29.91 (1013) 23 (20)
1800 MON SEP 17  24.9N 77.2W WNW 9 (8) 29.91 (1013) 23 (20)
1200 MON SEP 17  24.5N 76.5W - - 29.91 (1013) 23 (20)

[Wx_Warrior]

And my boy JB is always right! (see the avatar)

The one thing I have learned on here is everyone that is not a pro met is one in their own mind and have their own opinion and hence post what they think and think they are right and that's whats exactly going to happen. Then, others take it too personally. Believe what you are going to believe and just know there's nothing really you can do about it (where the storm goes).

['CaneFreak]

Interesting post Nimbus. I don't know if the GFS 12z run is legit or not; not sure if it is based on probable setup. I'm leaning toward discounting it in favor of a farther west solution, but I guess we'll know in a few days.
-----------------------------------
>>WAIT a minute here canefreak, I thought high ULW meant shear, and in turn would be very unfavorable for development.... am I wrong on that.

It depends on where the shearzone is in relation to the (sub)tropical low. Many posters on here (not you) get hung up with "oh look at that upper level low, or look at that TUTT! That means nothing can form or conditions are unfavorable." Here's a big Red X [tm] on that. Sometimes that is correct. Other times, it's exactly the opposite in that these upper features which appear to be unfavorable end up doing the evacuating of the air into the upper atmosphere allowing the storm engine to churn and the low to deepen. It just depends on the relative position. For instance, a tropical low isn't going to cross a shear zone without being somewhat blown to pieces (occasionally in instances such as Katrina, the low level fights back after the conditions improve). But sometimes a low level feature will move in tandem with a backing away upper feature allowing an outflow channel. And what is always next to an upper low? High pressure and light winds aloft. So you have to look at it in the context of how the ULL/TUTT will affect the low level system. Does it shear or ventilate/evaucate it? Does it harbor a pattern reversal that will allow ridging to its east (position of the low level circulation) providing more ideal conditions ato the low level circulation?

In a nutshell? It depends.

Steve

Good post Steve. Thanks for doing that. Did not feel like going through all that detail like you did. Great post. Thanks for helping me out!! Hope I did not confuse anyone.

[Steve]

>>I would want a more West solution too if i resided in SELA...Im not jumping all over this GFS run either.

Steve the anti-wishcaster (actually I live in South Louisiana moreso than SE LA around 29.5/90.44).

But you know me. I'm a straight-shooter when it comes to this stuff. I don't cheer for or against Louisiana or Mississippi. I try to call what I see. I had substantial differences with Derek and AFM last night on future potential, as I wasn't and am still not buying "weak, sheared TD/TS" at the end. In fact I don't think that's a credible solution at all, but those guys get paid for what they do. I'm calling it a gentlemen's disagreement.

As I also said last night, we would all learn some things out of what is now 93L. This system should have some surprises in store, though it's way too early to say whether that involves tropical transformation, track, intensity or whatever.
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One final note. While I said that I'm leaning toward a discount of the 12z's now, 4 days is pretty quick to have a Hurricane on your front door when there isn't anything really out there for the public to grasp. Should the GFS, NAM and BAMD (BAMD showing a worst case LA scenario if the pressure was low enough - and I'm pretty sure it won't be) be onto something, well there really won't be much time to evacuate any of the AL/MS/LA coastal areas or slightly-inland cities. That's kind of a nightmare for disaster officials.

Who knows?

Steve

[mattpetre]

93L has the looks of something that could get pretty strong. A long tracker across the GOM could be a recipe for disaster as far as my plans next weekend... thoughts on how long it would take this storm to reach TX if it does form and if it does track in that direction? I was guessing about next Tuesday or so, think that is about right?

Please explain to me how 93L has the "look" of something that could get pretty strong?
I read the same things from many posters about TS Gabrielle despite abundant shear around
the system as with 93L. The shear was suppose to decrease in that storm but that never happened. The conditions right now do not favor a "strong" system and I have doubts that they ever will. So what are you seeing and how strong do you think it will be?

I was comparing this system to the looks of the other GOM systems we've had this year. Humberto, Erin, and Barry did not begin to spin up quite as quickly as this appears to be doing. I am by no means an expert and so take anything I say with many grains of salt (I expect no respect of my opinions, but I will still share them.) I think this will wind up being a Cat 3 in the central GOM, but I currently have no idea whatsoever where it might actually head (agree that it could be anywhere from the BOC to Pensacola.... hard to say right now.

[PhillyWX]

It looks like JB is pretty set on a hit somewhere along the Texas coastline on Sunday. That's what he pretty much said in 'Long Ranger' video this morning.

I think LA needs to watch this too. Gotta watch the trough digging across the Plains this weekend...it COULD pull it a bit more towards LA, especially if the storm intensifies more rapidly in the GOM and becomes more prone to feeling weaknesses in the upper air patterns from farther away.

[HeeBGBz]

This should liven up my otherwise dull week. I don't want another Katrina, but a little tropical breezyness of the lower magnitudes would be okay by me. Then again, I'm a bit of a freak.

Maybe I'm in the minority here but I can find a lot of others to do to "liven" my week other than a problem from the tropics.

Oh, you must have a life then? Plus, your area has had most of the action this season so I understand where you are coming from. I better shut up before other local folk beat me up.

I'm waiting to see what the local weatherguy has to say about whatever it is that's brewing. The weather here has cooled down quite a bit in the last week or so. Would this be a weekend event for whichever area that would be affected?

ok, before the server crashes....EVERYONE CALM DOWN....there IS a BROAD circulation starting to form east of Florida. Its not that big of a deal RIGHT NOW...we have plenty of time to watch it. Things could change later in the forecast period. I think we are up to about 3 or 4 posts per minute right now....so just...CALM DOWN.

Geez, if I were any calmer, I'd be comatose.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Radars:

Weather.com Street Level Radar, Florida:
http://image.weather.com/web/flash/FMMa ... meAlpha=60

Weather Underground, Melbourne, Florida:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... fs.6.val=1

Intellicast regional radar, Florida:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... imate=true

---

Satellites:

Rapid updating visible from NOAA Aviation Weather Center:
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

PSU Visible Floater:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

GOES Southeast Imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se.html

RAMSDIS Floaters:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

And when NOAA puts a floater on it, you will be able to find it on this page:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

Western Atlantic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl.html

[hiflyer]

Nice broad low on about 75-80 miles due east of Port Eveglades/FLL. SouthEast coast of Florida getting showers running from North to South on the west side of the circulation...good sized and just enough to screw up the three commercial airports a bit..PBI FLL and MIA...with MIA being the last to get it. Radar also indicating tops being blown off due north....