Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[gatorcane]

Latest IR SAT frame shows intense storms (reds showing up) but more activity seems to be brewing farther east of the peninsula than the models are showing it right now.....

anybody think the "center" may actually form more offshore SE Florida giving it time to develop before moving onshore?

Here is the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[cpdaman]

just walked dog to beach before i go back to work, the seas and winds are up a good deal from mid morning. probably gusting to 30 in s. palm beach county with sustained around 20-23 IMO

and wow the ULL looks like it's signature improved 10x since this morning to the west of tampa, unless this thing is flying west i don't see how the shear around it would not create anything but a subtropical type storm

is the ULL development pushing the convergance/ precip shield east off florida and is the low level circulation still intact

[Air Force Met]

SHIPS has almost no shear at this time tomorrow.

The UL likely is not going to have the influence on shearing this that I thought yesterday (isn't as sheared as I thought it would be currently even)

Derek, why is the SHIPS showing such low shear as early as tomorrow? Is it figuring the ULL moving away quicker than we're currently thinking?

The SHIPS is picking up on the fact the sfc low will be in close proximity to the upper low...at least that is how I read it. I think it is a bit of a red-herring. Zero shear in this case doesn't mean ideal conditions...since it will be near the center of the upper low. Look at the forecast upper level charts. The sfc low moves close to where the upper low itis...so SHIPS sees low shear...it's not under low shear in the middle of antic-cyclonic flow...its under low shear in the middle of cyclonic flow. Thats a big difference.

[Brent]

Can someone get SSD to put a floater on this?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Can someone get SSD to put a floater on this?

Where is Dixie when you need her..LOL

[cpdaman]

is vivian brown from TWC a meteorologist or just an on air personality

she keeps saying it is an upper level feature and they are waiting on a possible low level circulation to form

then i read the 205 marine statement talking about a strengthening low near bimini

geez what gives

[babyblue4791]

SHIPS has almost no shear at this time tomorrow.

The UL likely is not going to have the influence on shearing this that I thought yesterday (isn't as sheared as I thought it would be currently even)

Derek, why is the SHIPS showing such low shear as early as tomorrow? Is it figuring the ULL moving away quicker than we're currently thinking?

The SHIPS is picking up on the fact the sfc low will be in close proximity to the upper low...at least that is how I read it. I think it is a bit of a red-herring. Zero shear in this case doesn't mean ideal conditions...since it will be near the center of the upper low. Look at the forecast upper level charts. The sfc low moves close to where the upper low itis...so SHIPS sees low shear...it's not under low shear in the middle of antic-cyclonic flow...its under low shear in the middle of cyclonic flow. Thats a big difference.

What is SHIPS?

[Derek Ortt]

however, SHIPS keeps the system under low shear until landfall. 200mb divergence/convergence is only accounting for a -2KT change in the model

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

GFS goes fully anti-cyclonic in 48 hours

[Brent]

is vivian brown from TWC a meteorologst or just an on air personality

she keeps saying it is an upper level feature and they are waiting on a possible low level circulation to form

then i read the 205 marine statement talking about a strengthening low near bimini

geez what gives

LOL... I admit I just saw it too. I don't rely on them for primary info anymore because of just this situation.

[wzrgirl1]

Derek,

Do you expect this to be named before it crosses south florida?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

When this thing does cross the state, it is expected to rapidly pass over and head west, correct? --or is there a possibility that this will be a slow-mover and, even worse, potentially stall in the gulf? right now I'm hoping for nothing but a little much needed rain from Jerry. We have company coming into town tomorrow and staying through the weekend. Please tell me that there is no chance of this getting off the west coast and then really cranking up...without moving west quickly...causing our weather here to be a mess and having to evacuate!? (we are on a barrier island)

[caneman]

Plents of West winds, at one buoy sustained running 30 mps and 40 in gusts. Pressured dropping quite a bit How long til classified?

[tracyswfla]

What is SHIPS?[/quote]Taken from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_c ... tion_model
"tropical cyclone forecast model is a computer program that uses meteorological data to forecast the motion and intensity of tropical cyclones. Such models utilize powerful supercomputers with sophisticated mathematical modeling software and meteorological data to calculate paths and intensities. There are two general types, statistical and dynamical, and two primary types of forecasts, track and intensity."

SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme) is a statistical model that uses climatological, persistence and synoptic predictors.

[Stormcenter]

To me if you look at those models and the current SAT image it reminds me alot of Frances -- although Frances was much stronger..

wow here we go again.

latest:

LMAO ..Yea that looks exactly like frances...maybe whn she left Africa!

I'm shocked that anyone is comparing this to Frances or any other "organized" named system right now. It not even close to that.

[hial2]

Remember Humberto went from nothing to 85 mph in a matter of hours..not that it's going to happen in this instance,but....it does seem to be developing fast!

[gatorcane]

Is there even a surface low yet? Can somebody show me where it is?

[Air Force Met]

Yes, that is why I think the NHC may consider tropical storm warnings for parts of Florida tonight.

Just my opinion.

Another thing to consider is the possibility of tornado watches/warnings with all the vorticity in the atmosphere....

If they put TS warnings up then it has to be at least a TD first. They don't put them up for invests only. It's certainly possible... could see another "surprise" storm.

Like I said last night...once the low closes off and deepens just a little...we should have a TS no problem just due to gradient conditions ALONE. There is a steep gradient in place already and just a little lower pressure is all that is needed to create some TS force winds on the north side...albeit 60-100 miles from the center.

Also...not sure why so many of you are acting surprised. What is happening now off the east coast of FL is by no means a shocker. The synoptic setup was almost perfect...and keeping that in mind...it isn't going to get on a runaway train like Humberto did. It will follow the synoptics and deepen to a certain extent (while off of Florida)...its not going to pull a Katrina or Humberto right now...so everyone can remain calm.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 19:45 UTC

[gatorcane]

To me if you look at those models and the current SAT image it reminds me alot of Frances -- although Frances was much stronger..

wow here we go again.

latest:

LMAO ..Yea that looks exactly like frances...maybe whn she left Africa!

I'm shocked that anyone is comparing this to Frances or any other "organized" named system right now. It not even close to that.

no the point was that it is the size of Frances, not as strong obviously but the size of it is similar.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Updated recon...


NOUS42 KNHC 182000 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0400 PM EDT TUE 18 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-116 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CHANGED)
FLIGHT ONE (ADDED)
A. 20/0000Z
B. NOAA9 01XXA SYNOPTIC
C. 19/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 25.5N 88.0W AT 20/1800Z. ANOTHER G-IV MISSION
FOR 21/0000Z (ADDED)

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF