Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[babyblue4791]

How soon do you think a plane will be sent in?

[Ed Mahmoud]

A G-IV mission before a low level invest mission. Kinky, but I like it.

[Air Force Met]

Is there even a surface low yet? Can somebody show me where it is?

Yes...there is...

About 25.8N / 79W...1012Mb or so...

Hi-Res Sat

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

anybody want to bet Tropical storm watches/warnings will be issued for the South Florida waters from Tampa Bay south around through Melborune on the East Coast including West Palm Beach through Miami?

Wouldn't surprise me if we see some tonight....

Depends of if they upgrade it to a depression or storm based on
observations in the bahamas

Observed at: Foots Cay, Foots Cay, Abaco
Elevation: 30 ft / 9 m

Temperature: 78.7 °F / 25 °C
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 79 °F / 26 °C
Wind: 14.5 mph / 23 km/h from the ENE
Wind Gust: 16.2 mph / 26 km/h
Pressure: 29.77 in / 1008.0 hPa
Heat Index: 83 °F / 28 °C

Can you advise this station's web site?? Thanks

I apologize but I have no idea what the web site was- I got it off
Dr. Masters WunderBlog Comments posted by several bloggers.

[rockyman]

is 25.5/88 where NHC thinks the center will be...or is that just a starting point? (recon plan)

[Derek Ortt]

they COULD do an invest mission this afternoon as the NOAA aircraft are flying back from barbados.. not sure if this will occur though

[Sabanic]

is 25.5/88 where NHC thinks the center will be...or is that just a starting point? (recon plan)

No. That would be S of Gulf Shores, AL/Pensacola

[sevenleft]

is 25.5/88 where NHC thinks the center will be...or is that just a starting point? (recon plan)

General area they think the center might be on Thursday as it works its way westward tonight and wednesday.

[artist]

gator - there is a lot of difference between size of Frances and just looking like Frances


What does this mean from the NRL site, please -

NOTE: Windsat data offline. 9/18/07

[Brent]

A high-altitude flight before a low-level mission. There's a surprise.

Wasn't their a flight scheduled into that area east of the islands for tomorrow? Couldn't they divert that plane? They did it with Philippe/Rita back in 2005(when Rita first developed and Philippe was clearly not nearly as big of a threat).

[sevenleft]

gator - there is a lot of difference between size of Frances and just looking like Frances


What does this mean from the NRL site, please -

NOTE: Windsat data offline. 9/18/07

It means windsat data offline. As in, windsat data isn't available right now. Don't worry about it.

[Dean4Storms]

Sure is coming together quickly with the aid of the ULL. I think it'll battle the sub to purely tropical status till it gets into the GOM. From there should take off as the shear lessens if the models are correct.

I think most of the stronger winds will be on the north side where the gradient is steepest, if the low passes to your north as it moves westward you may not see much rain or even wind at all.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Is there even a surface low yet? Can somebody show me where it is?

The 18Z model suite initialized the center at 1011mb 26.0N 79.0W

[sevenleft]

A high-altitude flight before a low-level mission. There's a surprise.

Wasn't their a flight scheduled into that area east of the islands for tomorrow? Couldn't they divert that plane? They did it with Philippe/Rita back in 2005(when Rita first developed and Philippe was clearly not nearly as big of a threat).

If they wanted to investigate 93L they'd just send an aircraft from Keesler. There isn't much of a reason to right now. Probably not until it reaches the GOM.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Frances was stronger but looking at some of the models I'm concerned that on the West coast it could jump its intensity rather quickly.

I am also very concerned about that. Frances trapped me in my neighborhood
by flooding the only roads out and the water was flooding my yard covering
the streets and almost flooding into my house. Barry this June caused the canal
in my back yard to rise and flood my entire back yard...and that was at a 30-40 mph
system.

Kinda exciting to watch though- with those crazy winds- just hope it doesnt flood
the house.

[Air Force Met]

Observed at: Foots Cay, Foots Cay, Abaco
Elevation: 30 ft / 9 m

Temperature: 78.7 °F / 25 °C
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 79 °F / 26 °C
Wind: 14.5 mph / 23 km/h from the ENE
Wind Gust: 16.2 mph / 26 km/h
Pressure: 29.77 in / 1008.0 hPa
Heat Index: 83 °F / 28 °C

[/quote]

The pressure is almost certainly wrong. There have been issues in the past from reports in the Bahamas with the pressure being too low...and this pressure seems too low by about 5 MB. All other pressures from buoys...and other reporting stations in that area indicate a loose pressure gradient around the low and that it is near 1011-1012 as all other reports are in the 1012-1013 mb range. If a pressure of 1008 existed you would see evidence of a tight LLC on the hi-res vis...and there is none. So...the pressure is obviously way too low.

[Emmett_Brown]

While we definitely something brewing... doesnt appear to be a well defined LLC yet:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Overall, very wrapped up in the ULL at the moment. Here in NE FL, bands of showers beginning to pull onshore again. Winds pick up a bit in the bands, gusting to perhaps 25 mph. Rain is quite heavy in the bands, and no lightning... feels very tropical. Yesterday we had a lot more lightning, more like Tstorms on a cold front, so this feels like the fringes of a developing TC.

Just my guess, but judging by the upper low, might the center form a bit further offshore of E FL? (more of a baroclinic deepening?)

[caneman]

Well the fact that they're sending NOAA right now tells me they deem it important because so close to land and need upper air pattern to get a better feel for where it may go.

[micktooth]

is vivian brown from TWC a meteorologist or just an on air personality

she keeps saying it is an upper level feature and they are waiting on a possible low level circulation to form

then i read the 205 marine statement talking about a strengthening low near bimini

geez what gives

I wouldn't count on TWC too much. Vivian Brown is ok, much better than Lisa "Gulf of Georgia" Moser from a few years back.

[tracyswfla]

Well the fact that they're sending NOAA right now tells me they deem it important because so close to land and need upper air pattern to get a better feel for where it may go.

They are?