Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[thatguy1]

robbielyn wrote:
BrSpinDoc wrote:
I am not a weather person, but the spokesperson for the state agency in charge of hurricane response in Louisiana. I am seeking a little guidance. What affect will this storm have on Louisiana and when? Should we start warning people now?

Warn people? Not yet. Inform them to keep a vigilant eye out everyday til we know what's happening sure.



Uh, what? Is this for real? Come on....




Here in Louisiana our local goverment doesn't know how to protect us. Hopefully mnjb28 will speak up and let us locals know what is going on. mnjb28 is a little Nash Roberts in the making.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This looks like a training mission or a flight back from a cancelled Ingrid deployment (just a guess). But they are in the neighborhood. I guess they don't just pop in unannounced.


043
URNT10 KNHC 182040
97779 20384 30242 76008 85300 18015 77802 /8047
RMK AF309 WXWXA 07091818309 OB 06

[lrak]

I am not a weather person, but the spokesperson for the state agency in charge of hurricane response in Louisiana. I am seeking a little guidance. What affect will this storm have on Louisiana and when? Should we start warning people now?

I seriously hope you are joking. A state spokesperson in charge of hurricane response looking at a blog to determine whether to warn people in your state. Very nice!!!

Utilize all sources of information, nice!


Think ahead and prepare.

[Stormcenter]

New Orleans AFD from this afternoon:

.LONG TERM...
GFS LATEST RUN HAS INITIALIZED THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK WEST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS
INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST GULF LATE WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE A LOW HAS
NOT DEVELOP...A POINTED FORECAST TRACK WOULD BE EARLY. A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THIS LOW TRACKS WEST ACROSS THE GULF. TEMPS
AT 5H ARE AROUND -9C OVER FLORIDA COMPARED TO -5C OVER LOUISIANA. MEAN RH
VALUES CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS THE LOW TRACKS WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXIST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. WITH ALL THESE WEATHER UNCERTAINTIES...THE
MAIN THREAT WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM OR POSSIBLE GULF LOW
WILL BE POSSIBLY TIDAL FLOODING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY.

As I've mentioned before the "very dry" air to the north will prevent this from becoming something major unless it gets further west then 90' and then it still may have problems.

[Air Force Met]

ok... definitely no LLC, as the ULL is totally in charge. If we do see and LLC, my guess is that it would initially form in the Central Bahamas... this might seem a bit far to the SE, but that is just my opinion. I am thinking a sub trop low forming near this area do proximity to the ULL.

There is a LLC...its pretty obvious on hi-res satellite. Its not well formed...but there are west winds in the low clouds...

Hi-Res Sat

[alienstorm]

It seems that the ULL is now more pronounce and there is no LLC that I can see in the High Resolution Visible Loop. All the coluds are being sheared to the North and East, development of a tropical nature is not likely for another 24-48 hours. A sub-tropical system is more likely to develop and move to the north and then cross across the state. It is now looking more like all the related weather will be from the lake north.

We have cleared out in Southeast Florida which is another indication of the system consolidating and moving off to the north and east.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Wx_Warrior, which NWS/TPC product is this from (it helps to provide this information for reference)?

Never mind, answering my own question:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
149 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 21 2007 - 12Z TUE SEP 25 2007

FINAL...

THE 12Z GFS IS OUT OF SYNC WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 12Z GEM
GLOBAL OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN PRAIRIES OF
CANADA DAY 5...KEEPING THE ENERGY IN THE SPLIT FLOW SEPARATE.
THIS SEPARATION PRECLUDES THE BIG LOW NORTH OF THE BORDER DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST GEM GLOBAL AND GEFS MEAN. STUCK
WITH THE CONSENSUS HERE. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET ARE EVEN
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY DAY
4...SO SAW NO REASON IN DILUTING THE PRELIMINARY FORECAST FOR THE
FINAL ISSUANCE WITH THAT SYSTEM. FINALLY...THE LOW TRACKING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS FARTHER NORTH ON THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM GLOBAL THAN EITHER THE 00Z ECMWF OR 12Z
UKMET. THE COORDINATED TRACK WITH TPC TAKES THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO
THE EC/UK TRACK...MAKING LANDFALL IN TEXAS EARLY DAY 6.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A LLC appears to be developing with inflow becoming more "round" around the base of the enlongated low pressure area. Around 25.5-26 north/79 west. I think a depression maybe forming.

[Wx_Warrior]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fcsttxt.html

[bwhorton2007]

I think louisiana emegency prepardness people could better answer this and if this person didn't or doesn't know this then god be with us if this thing threatens louisiana as a major storm.

[gatorcane]

It seems that the ULL is now more pronounce and there is no LLC that I can see in the High Resolution Visible Loop. All the coluds are being sheared to the North and East, development of a tropical nature is not likely for another 24-48 hours. A sub-tropical system is more likely to develop and move to the north and then cross across the state. It is now looking more like all the related weather will be from the lake north.

We have cleared out in Southeast Florida which is another indication of the system consolidating and moving off to the north and east.

For now we have but give it time there is alot of nasty weather offshore that may want to sneak back towards us.

[mattpetre]

I am not a weather person, but the spokesperson for the state agency in charge of hurricane response in Louisiana. I am seeking a little guidance. What affect will this storm have on Louisiana and when? Should we start warning people now?

I seriously hope you are joking. A state spokesperson in charge of hurricane response looking at a blog to determine whether to warn people in your state. Very nice!!!

Actually, this FORUM not a blog! is a very good place to get the most accurate tropical weather analysis in the world second only to the NHC as far as I'm concerned. This was probably the only place other than paying for JB's site that you would have heard anything about Humberto other than the day of the storm. There is nothing wrong at all for officials looking for guidance here. Ever hear of the Near Earth Object program? a large percentage of near earth objects are discovered by hobbyist astronomers every year... and we do have quite a few Pros on here. I am pretty sure that all of us (including many weather sites) would be further behind the tropical curve if not for Storm2K. My 2 cents.

BTW, BrSpinDoc, I wouldn't sound warnings just yet, but I would be watching this thing very closely the next day or so and would at least mention it to colleagues.

[Air Force Met]

A LLC appears to be developing with inflow becoming more "round" around the base of the enlongated low pressure area. Around 25.5-26 north/79 west. I think a depression maybe forming.

The exact coordinates I gave an hour ago. Yes...it is near there. You can see the eastward moving low clouds around 25N.

Hi-Res Sat

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[bwhorton2007]

Well all i can say is something is developing off florida despite shearing and a ULL and has a real chance to be a big time weathermaker this week.

[jdjaguar]

ok... definitely no LLC, as the ULL is totally in charge. If we do see and LLC, my guess is that it would initially form in the Central Bahamas... this might seem a bit far to the SE, but that is just my opinion. I am thinking a sub trop low forming near this area do proximity to the ULL.

There is a LLC...its pretty obvious on hi-res satellite. Its not well formed...but there are west winds in the low clouds...

Hi-Res Sat

I see that too..I also note some convection popping up in that area.

[Normandy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Ok folks, couple of things need to be remembered.

1) Stop forecasting intensity four days out. There is probably a 20% chance of this becoming a major. There is also probably a 20% chance of this dissipating. Trying to figure out what intensity this will be 4 days out is absurd....Even the NHC is poor at forecasting intensity and THEY are the best we have. We just don't know enough about TC intensity cycles. What makes anybody here think they can forecast intensity any more accurately? I sure as hell can't (And Humberto quickly reminded me of that...I didn't even think he'd get named).

2) It isn't going to develop right now. It is VERY close to a ULL and if it does develop today it likely will be more suptropical than purely tropical. Don't fret if this doesn't explode overnight (Because all signs are pointing to a steady and slow intensification process for the first 24 hours).

3) This is probably the first US threat of any significance (Besides Humberto). Be prepared.

EDIT:
Also, there IS an LLC.

[Steve]

>>AFM, wxman57, or other mets.... it's hard to believe this could trek west all the way across the GOM and hit Texas (as the Euro shows), without finding a weakness. It's getting late in the season for us. I know Rita did it, so it keeps my guard up, but that was considered pretty late in the season.... surely not another one just 2 years later. I know you can change your mind, but what odds do you put on it doing that? Everyone is asking me questions since I'm the weather geek of the crowd.... can I ease their minds a little?

Gale,

Don't be surprised if Texas doesn't get the all clear for a couple of more weeks. We have to wait to see what the setup is post-93L, but ridging doesn't appear to be going anywhere soon.

Steve

[Air Force Met]

It seems that the ULL is now more pronounce and there is no LLC that I can see in the High Resolution Visible Loop. All the coluds are being sheared to the North and East, development of a tropical nature is not likely for another 24-48 hours. A sub-tropical system is more likely to develop and move to the north and then cross across the state. It is now looking more like all the related weather will be from the lake north.

We have cleared out in Southeast Florida which is another indication of the system consolidating and moving off to the north and east.

Hi-Res Sat


Do you see the low clouds moving east at 25N? Just north of there is your closed low.

[Ivanhater]

Derek ortt's blog on Pensacola News Journal...

http://www.pnj.com/blogs/weather/index.shtml