Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[ROCK]

No, but a cat 1 or 2 cane is very possible once it gets in the gulf. I'm not saying cat 5, but cat 1 or 2 can still be very eventful with damaging winds and flooding rains...

Absolutely. The central gulf coast does not need any sort of tropical system right now. Even a solution close to what the GFDL 12z run forecasts (a sloppy category 1 hitting near the mouth of the Mississippi) would cause a lot of panic, and could prove very harmful.

I would buy into that (cat.1 not 2) maybe in the central GOM or westward "maybe" but not eastern.

SC how so? I thought dry air entrainment would not allow it to reach anything above a TS? sorry bro had to call you out on that one....

[Cyclenall]

The thing is, even if there is some shear a hurricane can still form. Remember Alberto (2006)? That was quite something because I remember how strong the shear was affecting it when it came almost to hurricane strength quickly. I think it was close to a warm eddy or some hot spot. I also remember the bone dry air near it.

[Dean4Storms]

I think we have a more Baroclinic system for now which eventually evolves into a Barotropic system once in the GOM. I don't think we see much more than an average TS strength winds for peninsula Florida but once in the GOM that could well change if the UL winds become more favorable as they seem to be forecasted. We could then see more of a warm core transition take place and a hurricane in the making.

Everyone from the FL Panhandle to Texas needs to stay up to date on this developing Storm.

[Bgator]

Hey, I live in Miami, and where do you all think the Low will form? and how fast it will form? When will it make it to the west coast? Thanks!

[Wx_Warrior]

18z GFS has landing just east of TX/LA border

[RL3AO]

This is interesting.

Dunmore Town, Bahamas
Wind: 10.0 mph / 16.1 km/h / 4.5 m/s from the SW

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78077.html

[micktooth]

18Z GFS has a landfall at TX/LA border

You beat me to it WW

[RL3AO]

Surface obs.

[chadtm80]

All kinds of new things added for 93L on homepage!
http://www.storm2k.org/wx/index.php

[sphelps8681]

Where is it that you see the models that say it will hit east of texas/la border.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Those wind reports show we have a closed LLC. With 25-30 knot winds. Looks like a depression.

[gboudx]

Where is it that you see the models that say it will hit east of texas/la border.

Here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114s.gif

Also, checkout the 93L Model thread.

[MiamiensisWx]

I could be incorrect, but the upper low appears to be moving away from the area, so 93L could be experiencing the biggest shear test over the next ~10-24 hours. Currently, it looks like the upper low is moving slightly faster than progged by some model initializations. Take a look at the recent visibles and WV. Click here for GOES visible imagery. Click here for GOES WV. If the LLC relocates to another location (i.e. further E or SE in lower shear), we could see some slow development (probably baroclinic/subtropical) before FL landfall as it gradually acquires some warm core characteristics. Regardless, it looks like 93L has a shot for pre-FL development when the upper low enters the central Gulf of Mexico. Interestingly, low-level convergence has decreased in the W Bahamas. Could this trend be an early indicator of relaxing UL divergence/shear? It's probably related to the adjacent upper low, so it may not be a trend toward lower shear, but I decided to mention it in this post.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wind Speed (WSPD): 38 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 42 kts
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1


Looks like if it where to be upgraded it would be a tropical storm.

[NateFLA]

This is going to turn into a very annoying rain feature for walking to class in gainesville, isnt it?

Bah!

[cycloneye]

Wind Speed (WSPD): 38 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 42 kts

Looks like if it where to be upgraded it would be a tropical storm.

From where you got that? Include a link please.

[robbielyn]

I think that ull can take care of that dry air for Jerry

[RL3AO]

West wind of 21 mph in Nassau, Bahamas.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

English: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN
Metric: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

[CrazyC83]

I'll go ahead and say it since a lot of people are thinking it: this could be a major hurricane and category 5 is possible. No, I do not expect a major hurricane or category 5 from this, however it is possible. We all know it is after what Dean, Felix, and Humberto have done. The correct thing to do is say a cat 1 or 2 is possible and that is what everyone is saying. Deep down inside we all know it has a better than 50/50 shot at exploding over the loop current with low shear.

If this goes over the dreaded Loop Current, all bets are off.

Notice the guys have been all the mean ones this year...