Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Wx_Warrior]

I know what my brother thinks..Does Greg_Kfdm want to bite on any of this?

[wxman57]

I expect we'll see a westward jog in the guidance overnight. I'm quite skeptical of the NW motion that the models were initialized with, and I don't buy the initial northward motion by the GFS/GFDL/HWRF. With the upper low sinking south, the convection and surface low probably won't move north over the next 24 hrs. My first track is toward the TX/LA border with landfall mid morning Sunday. We've seen that the models are having a very hard time with predicting the upper-level winds more than a day or so out, so I have low confidence in the intensity forecasts. I am sticking closer to the ECMWF track for now and ignoring the BAM models in the subtropics. Lots of shear now, but if landfall isn't until Saturday or Sunday there should be plenty of time for it to become a hurricane. My best estimate for farthest west and farthest east landfalls would be Matagorda Bay (Victoria, TX) to the west and the western Florida panhandle to the east. Sounds like a big area, but if you locate the center then draw lines to each of these areas it doesn't take too much of a track shift to go from mid TX to SE LA coasts. Could be a TD by tomorrow afternoon.

[jhamps10]

JB's thoughts on video, FREE folks,

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... PenStoneJB

[cycloneye]

I expect we'll see a westward jog in the guidance overnight. I'm quite skeptical of the NW motion that the models were initialized with, and I don't buy the initial northward motion by the GFS/GFDL/HWRF. With the upper low sinking south, the convection and surface low probably won't move north over the next 24 hrs. My first track is toward the TX/LA border with landfall mid morning Sunday. We've seen that the models are having a very hard time with predicting the upper-level winds more than a day or so out, so I have low confidence in the intensity forecasts. I am sticking closer to the ECMWF track for now and ignoring the BAM models in the subtropics. Lots of shear now, but if landfall isn't until Saturday or Sunday there should be plenty of time for it to become a hurricane. My best estimate for farthest west and farthest east landfalls would be Matagorda Bay (Victoria, TX) to the west and the western Florida panhandle to the east. Sounds like a big area, but if you locate the center then draw lines to each of these areas it doesn't take too much of a track shift to go from mid TX to SE LA coasts. Could be a TD by tomorrow afternoon.

57,you think pure tropical or subtropical TD?

[wxman57]

I expect we'll see a westward jog in the guidance overnight. I'm quite skeptical of the NW motion that the models were initialized with, and I don't buy the initial northward motion by the GFS/GFDL/HWRF. With the upper low sinking south, the convection and surface low probably won't move north over the next 24 hrs. My first track is toward the TX/LA border with landfall mid morning Sunday. We've seen that the models are having a very hard time with predicting the upper-level winds more than a day or so out, so I have low confidence in the intensity forecasts. I am sticking closer to the ECMWF track for now and ignoring the BAM models in the subtropics. Lots of shear now, but if landfall isn't until Saturday or Sunday there should be plenty of time for it to become a hurricane. My best estimate for farthest west and farthest east landfalls would be Matagorda Bay (Victoria, TX) to the west and the western Florida panhandle to the east. Sounds like a big area, but if you locate the center then draw lines to each of these areas it doesn't take too much of a track shift to go from mid TX to SE LA coasts. Could be a TD by tomorrow afternoon.

57,you think pure tropical or subtropical TD?

I say TD, but it'll be transitioning still by tomorrow afternoon.

[Air Force Met]

SHIPS has the shear below 10kts for the crucial time of 36-84 hours when it is over the highest heat content and 30 deg C SST. This is how I come up with the solution Jerry will be huge. Humberto did not have much time at all and look what it did. This will have plenty of time over water. The tropics can do amazing things with the right environment.

I guess you missed my post about the SHIPS...and the reason it is showing 10 knots of shear during that time period is because this system is going to be under the upper low...so its not under 10 kts of anticyclonic outflow...its under 10 kts of cyclonic flow...

That is a big difference....and an important one.

Which ULL? The one diving WSW from Fl right now? The low level center would need to start haulin to catch up with that ULL....is the ULL suppose to stall out in the GOM?

Yes...its going to cut off and stay off the west coast of Florida until it finally moves out of the way.

Check out the model runs...200 mb...and you will see why SHIPS puts out 10 kts or less (I believe it is run off the GFS for shear).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

I don't think a lot of people are actually looking at the maps...they are just looking at model output...but not the maps themselves...and this is where a lot of mistakes are made in forecasting.

[curtadams]

Wind Speed (WSPD): 38 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 42 kts
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

Looks like if it where to be upgraded it would be a tropical storm.

I have to say this doesn't look tropical at all. There's a low-level low, but it's not being caused by the convection. Not now, anyway. The convection is also moving around while in tropical systems at least some is relatively stationary.

[Blown Away]

Where is the low, Lat/Long? Is it moving, if so at what speed?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Excerpt from NHC's 8:05PM EDT ATWD:

"...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC BETWEEN THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND THE E COAST OF FLORIDA ANALYZED BY A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 26N79W. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING IN THE AREA
AND CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTION OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO."

[shannon]

In regards to SE florida, what day are we looking at this affecting us the most? We had some good rains early this morning and a refreshing breezy afternoon. Could I expect something a little more significant in the terms of wind? I expect and anticipate the rain, thats for sure. I am in PB county and just wondered what to expect. Thanks.

[sevenleft]

In regards to SE florida, what day are we looking at this affecting us the most? We had some good rains early this morning and a refreshing breezy afternoon. Could I expect something a little more significant in the terms of wind? I expect and anticipate the rain, thats for sure. I am in PB county and just wondered what to expect. Thanks.

Conditions should be similar tomorrow as the disturbance moves westward over S Florida. Wind won't be an issue.

[x-y-no]

JB's thoughts on video, FREE folks,

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... PenStoneJB

Been a few years since I saw one of his videos. He looks awfully tired ... I was a little shocked at his appearance.

Wonder what time that was recorded - I'm guessing in the morning since he said the center was trying to form on the Florida coast a little south of Cape Canaveral.

All in all I have little quarrel with these comments.

[jaxfladude]

For most of the NE Florida coastal areas, tomorrow is forecasted to be almost a total wash....

[bwhorton2007]

One thing we need to remember this is a large system so cyclogenisis will likely be much slower.

[shannon]

Thanks sevenleft, that sucks though, one of my qualms with moving here to S. florida in the last few years is, it is so freaking hot!! I could use a few days reprieve.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[fasterdisaster]

Sorry but this really looks like crap. Unless we're going to by nontropical standards, in which case it looks fine.

There is no way this thing is tropical, and I HIGHLY DOUBT this is even subtropical. No way will this get a start until at least Thursday looking at how far away it is from being the slightest bit tropical.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Could be a TD by tomorrow afternoon.

If this happens, will it form in the Atlantic off the east coast of FL, or in the Gulf off the west coast?

[CrazyC83]

When does the next QuikSCAT come out? That could tell us a lot.

[TheShrimper]

Hey Crazy, please explain to everyone why you need Quickscat here? I am real curious.