Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[wxman57]

I'll buy lunch for whomever knows the answer to this question. What track is used for SHIP and DSHP guidance?

[ROCK]

I'll buy lunch for whomever knows the answer to this question. What track is used for SHIP and DSHP guidance?

I am googling as I type....dont go any where.....

[caneman]

GFS???

[gboudx]

NHC.

<---------knowsthereaintknowsuchthingasafreelunch

[JTD]

I'll buy lunch for whomever knows the answer to this question. What track is used for SHIP and DSHP guidance?

Isn't it CONU? And if not CONU, Bamm right?

[ROCK]

CONU........I am guessing....didnt find nothing on google....

[caneman]

How bout MRF?

[Stratosphere747]

I believe it used to be the "GUNS."

[wxman57]

I don't know the answer to my question, guys. I'm trying to find out what track the NHC uses for the SHIP and DSHP guidance when there is no NHC track. I would think that the decision may be flexible. What are they using for the 00Z tonight runs? The reason I'd like to know is because the chosen track can greatly impact the intensity forecast.

[caneman]

http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm


Maybe you can find it here. I saw something about VICbar model based on cllimo and other things..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the ship uses the Lbar...

[Stormcenter]

Canadian.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[wxman57]

I suppose I can email the tstorms group as most of the NHC forecasters are on it. Surely, THEY know what they use.

[Derek Ortt]

The SHIPS track is based off of the medium BAM before being declared a TD and off of the interpolated official NHC forecast once forecasts are being issued (note for the non mets, I did NOT say advisories... I said forecasts, which sometimes come prior to the issuance of advisories)

[wxman57]

Canadian.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That for comic relief?

[Stratosphere747]

I don't know the answer to my question, guys. I'm trying to find out what track the NHC uses for the SHIP and DSHP guidance when there is no NHC track. I would think that the decision may be flexible. What are they using for the 00Z tonight runs? The reason I'd like to know is because the chosen track can greatly impact the intensity forecast.

Not sure if they base it on the "GUNS." At one time I thought they did.

GUNS. James Goerss of the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, California, demonstrated that a simple consensus of the GFDL, UKMET and NOGAPS models was about 20% more accurate at 24, 48 and 72 hrs than the best of individual models. The National Hurricane Center confirmed his results and dubbed the ensemble "GUNS," using the initials of the three models.

[ROCK]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/ht ... .htm#SHIPS


LBAR.....how weird is that....

[wxman57]

The SHIPS track is based off of the medium BAM before being declared a TD and off of the interpolated official NHC forecast once forecasts are being issued (note for the non mets, I did NOT say advisories... I said forecasts, which sometimes come prior to the issuance of advisories)

I'll check that out, Derek. If you're right, I owe you lunch. Have to get over here to collect, though.

[Derek Ortt]

see my post above for the correct answer

[ROCK]

see my post above for the correct answer

Hey Derek, can I take your lunch since I live down the street?