Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[ROCK]

Looking at the visibles, I'm approximating the surface circulation to be further south right now than most, ESE of the beginning of the keys (where they start from FL proper.) Anyone else think its this far south?

Keep in mind, visibles are useless at night. The closest alternative is IR2, and even that isn't quite as useful.

The convection appears to have weakened and become less organized in the latest loops, and definitely appears to be sheared.

true.....but as some METS have pointed out this was expected with the ULL pulling away. Its losing its influence......

[Extremeweatherguy]

What 93L is doing right now has very little to do with what it will be doing on Thursday. As we have seen time and time again, these systems usually spin up as they move westward in the GOM. No body that I know of is or was expecting a TD or TS to form tonight, so it is no surprise that the convection is weakening some and the system is sheared...this was expected all along.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Who is the world said for sure it was going to "hit" somewhere in LA.?

As Houstonia pointed out, it may never form. While everything points at Louisiana that I can see, in my uneducated opinion, with even JB, who was saying Texas now mentioning Louisiana as well, I can see the models come further East to Mississippi, Alabama or the Florida Panhandle.

Please show me where all of these models point to LA.?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Well, if you want to get technical, I guess the LBAR comes nowhere close, and the NOGAPS, which seems of questionable history this year, and is a run from this morning doesn't. I was referring, as is obvious to most reasonable people, to the GFS, 2 runs of the GFDL, the UK Met and the Beta Advection models.


If you want to get excited on a Texas or South Carolina landfall from the extreme outliers, who am I to argue.

[lamsalfl]

Which direction is this thing moving? Call me crazy, but if it is at 25.4N and is moving west, it will not be crossing much solid land at all. The Everglades are wet, as is Florida Bay obviously. I know there is friction with the interaction with land, but it's going to have less time over land than if it was coming in 150 miles to the north and travelling west.

That's just my $0.02

[Cape Verde]

I'm less concerned how good-looking the folks are who present the situation on television. I'm more concerned about how credible they sound.

I don't think any of us know much at all tonight about what will happen, and that surely includes the pro mets here who know the uncertainties.

This thing seems likely to cross Florida and regroup. It's at that point the forecasts really matter. Florida is going to get some needed rain. So far so good.

[Stratosphere747]

[quote="ROCK"]




I agree there is always a possibility that nothing forms regardless of what the guidance suggests. I do want to point out that the models though trending east today have trended west somewhat tonight. The EURO, CONU, GFS, NOGAPS all are left than they were yesterday. You discount the BAMMS as they are good for the deep tropics.....

[i]Hey Rock...

Could be a bit off. But the 0z EURO was near Freeport, while the 12z was near Sabine Pass..?

[americanrebel]

Ok, this is a serious qustion. Where do all the Mets that are on here expect the LLC to be in the morning and how long before they expect it to be a TD/STD? I have read all the post on here and they say as soon as the morning as late as never, but what is the consensus? After the flights that go through this system tomorrow afternoon, I expect all of us to have a better idea of what this system is going to do. But until then I would like some true educational answers to the question, where will the center of the LLC be in the morning and when will it intensify? I know that it would be best to wait until later in the week, but if it does hit the TX/LA line as some of the models are suggesting, and all the local METs are saying it will be nothing but a small tropical disturbance, this has me a little worried, since some people where Humberto hit is just getting their electricty back and trying to get their lifes back together, they will not be ready for anything this weekend.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Which direction is this thing moving? Call me crazy, but if it is at 25.4N and is moving west, it will not be crossing much solid land at all. The Everglades are wet, as is Florida Bay obviously. I know there is friction with the interaction with land, but it's going to have less time over land than if it was coming in 150 miles to the north and travelling west.

That's just my $0.02

I don't think a less than purely tropical system would be as badly impacted by brief land interaction assuming there ins't a lot of topography (which isn't an issue in SFL)

[boca]

I don't think here in South Florida that well get alot of rain out of this. I think most of the rain will be in North and Central Florida.My reasoning is the moisture field is NE of the center and if this tracks over SouthCentral Florida we are on the drier side of the system down here. We might get a few brief showers but thats it.All the organized rain up the state.

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[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, this is a serious qustion. Where do all the Mets that are on here expect the LLC to be in the morning and how long before they expect it to be a TD/STD? I have read all the post on here and they say as soon as the morning as late as never, but what is the consensus? After the flights that go through this system tomorrow afternoon, I expect all of us to have a better idea of what this system is going to do. But until then I would like some true educational answers to the question, where will the center of the LLC be in the morning and when will it intensify? I know that it would be best to wait until later in the week, but if it does hit the TX/LA line as some of the models are suggesting, and all the local METs are saying it will be nothing but a small tropical disturbance, this has me a little worried, since some people where Humberto hit is just getting their electricty back and trying to get their lifes back together, they will not be ready for anything this weekend.

Unless they have added a flight, tomorrows mission was a high altitude G-IV mission, although this close to land (and I think Bahamas has radar as well) the general location of an LLC, if one forms, should be relatively easy to discern.

[ROCK]

As Houstonia pointed out, it may never form. While everything points at Louisiana that I can see, in my uneducated opinion, with even JB, who was saying Texas now mentioning Louisiana as well, I can see the models come further East to Mississippi, Alabama or the Florida Panhandle.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Well, if you want to get technical, I guess the LBAR comes nowhere close, and the NOGAPS, which seems of questionable history this year, and is a run from this morning doesn't. I was referring, as is obvious to most reasonable people, to the GFS, 2 runs of the GFDL, the UK Met and the Beta Advection models.


If you want to get exited on a Texas or South Carolina landfall from the extreme outliers, who am I to argue.[/quote]


Derek said the last GFDL run should be discounted because of the initial north track. The GFS has trended back to Sabine pass in the last run.....The EURO has never left Texas.......Ed, I wouldnt get to hung up over Climo just because we are in late Sept.....The high is settling in over the SECONUS which will intially take this west to wnw....Now the SW moving over CA could erode the high some to allow a NW turn in the long term. If we followed Climo exclusively, we should be looking at the CLIPPER for guidance...

[vbhoutex]

All of this speculation/discussion is interesting and good to really get all of the "information" we find out in the open. But I have checked buoys up and down the coast of FL and the Bahamas and can not really find any indication of even a broad low pressure attm.(I found one buoy that would support the formation of a surface low to its south with a movement to the west, but nothing past that to support this). I am not discounting that this is going to probably form into at a minimum some sort of low pressure area that we do indeed need to watch, but it is definitely taking its' time about it from what I see. With the models all picking up on it and this evening trending West you can be sure I will be watching it though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just looking at the WV, the ULL is really digging towards the SW, which might increase separation from whatever is left of surface low, which should be a positive. But wow, it is really pulling down some bone dry air, which probably is a negative for development.

[Weatherfreak000]

It's irresponsible to be calling for a Texas hit right now, I don't know why i'm even seeing it.

Nothing will begin to suggest any possibility unless 93l can cross Florida and develops. The general speed and locations 93L ends up back in the gulf will determine landfall of probably a Rapidly Intensifying Minor Hurricane.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just looking at the WV, the ULL is really digging towards the SW, which might increase separation from whatever is left of surface low, which should be a positive. But wow, it is really pulling down some bone dry air, which probably is a negative for development.

The WV loop isn't fooling about dry air:

Tallahasee sounding:

[Ed Mahmoud]

Rock, never said CLIMO is always right, but most models suggests Louisiana, and Euro was trending East. Hey, OSU beat Miami, Texas beat USC, Appy State beat Michigan, it snowed on my palm trees on Christmas Eve three years ago, it is a chaotic world where any solution can't be completely discarded, but I, as an interested amateur, would be more than a little surprised anything closer to my house than the Sabine River.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would not suprize me at all if this did not become more then a low pressure area being sheared all the way across the gulf. It could form into a tropical storm, but there is no way based on current low level structure that we will have a tropical anything with in the next 24-36 hours.

The ULL rules this system.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It would not suprize me at all if this did not become more then a low pressure area being sheared all the way across the gulf. It could form into a tropical storm, but there is no way based on current low level structure that we will have a tropical anything with in the next 24-36 hours.

The ULL rules this system.

Gonna Disagree on that...The latest GFS shows very light to no shear in the GOM
after two days- and a much more slow moving westbound system- a recipe
for explosive intensification. I think very strongly that this will be at least
a hurricane.

[jhamps10]

It would not suprize me at all if this did not become more then a low pressure area being sheared all the way across the gulf. It could form into a tropical storm, but there is no way based on current low level structure that we will have a tropical anything with in the next 24-36 hours.

The ULL rules this system.

yeah, but tell that to the 00zGFS which forecasts VERY little shear in 42 hours, over where 93L is tracking.

[ROCK]

Rock, never said CLIMO is always right, but most models suggests Louisiana, and Euro was trending East. Hey, OSU beat Miami, Texas beat USC, Appy State beat Michigan, it snowed on my palm trees on Christmas Eve three years ago, it is a chaotic world where any solution can't be completely discarded, but I, as an interested amateur, would be more than a little surprised anything closer to my house than the Sabine River.

I know...Ed....you forgot Houston beat MS State to win Conf USA....