Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would not suprize me at all if this did not become more then a low pressure area being sheared all the way across the gulf. It could form into a tropical storm, but there is no way based on current low level structure that we will have a tropical anything with in the next 24-36 hours.

The ULL rules this system.

Gonna Disagree on that...The latest GFS shows very light to no shear in the GOM
after two days- and a much more slow moving westbound system- a recipe
for explosive intensification. I think very strongly that this will be at least
a hurricane.

I'm saying I don't expect this system to get upgraded in 24-36 hours. The ULL will slowly move southwestward and out of its way after 36-48 hours...In which case will allow for better upper level enviroment. The reason I say this could be a weak low pressure across the gulf of Mexico, is because of the fact that this ULL "could" stay and shear the living heck out of our system. We will see.

[miamicanes177]

any idea on what happens to all that dry air in the GOM and across the southern states?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It would not suprize me at all if this did not become more then a low pressure area being sheared all the way across the gulf. It could form into a tropical storm, but there is no way based on current low level structure that we will have a tropical anything with in the next 24-36 hours.

The ULL rules this system.

Gonna Disagree on that...The latest GFS shows very light to no shear in the GOM
after two days- and a much more slow moving westbound system- a recipe
for explosive intensification. I think very strongly that this will be at least
a hurricane.

I'm saying I don't expect this system to get upgraded in 24-36 hours. The ULL will slowly move southwestward and out of its way after 36-48 hours...In which case will allow for better upper level enviroment. The reason I say this could be a weak low pressure across the gulf of Mexico, is because of the fact that this ULL "could" stay and shear the living heck out of our system. We will see.

I agree that in the short term it may not rapidly develop.

And yes that forecast is a possibility, though the loop
current is insanely hot...and the shear is lessened per GFS..

IMO...for the long term...Gulf coast residents need to keep a very
close eye.

[cpdaman]

well there was a LLC around earlier this afternoon

and since the convection has been pushing SE ward due to some kind of shifting "divergence" or something because you can see an obvious wave of energy moving SE thru the bahamas as the day continues and ever since this divergence spread se over the LLC no one has seen it re-appear.

this is what i'm talking about


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-rb.html

maybe the ex-ingrid fans in FL will start to transfer their attention tommorrow

and i was including my self there as well

[fci]

I don't think here in South Florida that well get alot of rain out of this. I think most of the rain will be in North and Central Florida.My reasoning is the moisture field is NE of the center and if this tracks over SouthCentral Florida we are on the drier side of the system down here. We might get a few brief showers but thats it.All the organized rain up the state.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am afraid that you are going to be right and we will miss the badly needed rainfall down here.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the old LLC has dissipated. You can see the weakening remnant circulation in the last frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

You can see a significant dry slot and marginal CAPE + lifted index values over the W Bahamas. Look at the recent Miami sounding:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/upperair/skewt/mfl.gif

Here is another good WV loop. You can blame the upper low for shear and marginal convective parameters:

RAMSDIS WV

I think boca is correct, unfortunately. This trend hurts our precipitation chances. Interestingly, I'm starting to wonder if a new LLC can become established in the central or southern Bahamas.

[MGC]

Hopefully this will just be another phamtom tropical cyclone the models are spinning up. So what if most all models are in agreement that a low will form. This will not happen (keep repeating). And I was just talking with my better half Sunday that we only need to make it about 3 more weeks and we'll be home free from a TC this year. Well, until a low forms I not going to panic yet....MGC

[Sean in New Orleans]

Whatever anybody wants to call it...it is very unimpressive right now...there is no rotation, whatsoever on radar or satellite that I see. It's just a blob. It'll act up tomorrow when the sun comes up, but, it could blow if conditions are right in the GOM come Thursday..

[mattpetre]

This ULL seems to be very strong at this point. I don't really see how anything reliable can be forecast for the short-term. How can it reliably be predicted where a sfc low would form if and when it does again?

[Derek Ortt]

It's must pretty bad when so many are having a hard time finding the center. I don't ever
recall a system where so many posted that same question "where's the center"?
Let's be honest here folks it looks pretty pathetic right now and it definitely looks
sub tropical right now.

It's just a disturbance on a frontal boundary now, precisely as was predicted it would be today. I'm actually surprised at how well it's organized for so early. I've never expected it to become a TD until Thursday, though there's a slight chance now that it may remain over water and could be classified as a TD or STD tomorrow afternoon. Such systems will be very slow to organize. One thing that's usually lacking on this forum is patience. I'm just enjoying my short 12 hour days for now. Once it develops, I work about 18 hours a day.

Just quoting to remind some that this was not supposed to be immediate rapid intensification. Some need o have patience and wait for the atmosphere to become more condusive for development

[mattpetre]

Derek,

I am having as much patience as possible, but I am just curious as to what certainty we can have as to the location of tomorrow's surface low if and when it appears again... I just can't grasp how we can really predict with much accuracy where that will occur. Your thoughts?

[AJC3]

I think the old LLC has dissipated. You can see the weakening remnant circulation in the last frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

You can see a significant dry slot and marginal CAPE + lifted index values over the W Bahamas. Look at the recent Miami sounding:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/upperair/skewt/mfl.gif

Here is another good WV loop. You can blame the upper low for shear and marginal convective parameters:

RAMSDIS WV

I think boca is correct, unfortunately. This trend hurts our precipitation chances. Interestingly, I'm starting to wonder if a new LLC can become established in the central or southern Bahamas.

This will likely be a case where you'll to follow the strong divergent ascent being forced by the upper low, and the convection, pressure falls, heaviest rainfall will follow. Tomorrow, once the upper low gets farther west and carries the dry slot (immediately to it's east) with it, I strongly suspect that south Florida will see a significant deterioration in the local weather, and much higher coverage of rainfall. For right now, both ours and the JAX CWA are getting the "best" (or worst, depending on your perspective) of it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It's must pretty bad when so many are having a hard time finding the center. I don't ever
recall a system where so many posted that same question "where's the center"?
Let's be honest here folks it looks pretty pathetic right now and it definitely looks
sub tropical right now.

It's just a disturbance on a frontal boundary now, precisely as was predicted it would be today. I'm actually surprised at how well it's organized for so early. I've never expected it to become a TD until Thursday, though there's a slight chance now that it may remain over water and could be classified as a TD or StD tomorrow afternoon. Such systems will be very slow to organize. One thing that's usually lacking on this forum is patience. I'm just enjoying my short 12 hour days for now. Once it develops, I work about 18 hours a day.

Just quoting to remind some that this was not supposed to be immediate rapid intensification. Some need o have patience and wait for the atmosphere to become more condusive for development

Derek/All Professional Mets do you think the center may reform in the central bahamas closer
to that area of thunderstorms further SE off SE FL's coast?

[Steve]

>>As Houstonia pointed out, it may never form.

As Steve pointed out, I'd lay 2-1 odds against that for whomever wants to pony up some cash.

Steve

[Normandy]

Derek,

I am having as much patience as possible, but I am just curious as to what certainty we can have as to the location of tomorrow's surface low if and when it appears again... I just can't grasp how we can really predict with much accuracy where that will occur. Your thoughts?

I'll chime in in addition to Derek,
Radar indicated very broad turning over the bahamas, and in reality a surface low could form anywhere within this broad turning. The old LLC seems gone (I cant spot it on IR2, but then again its hard to see a LLC using IR2). I would say the best bet for a LLC establishing itself would be the central Bahamas....right now its really a surface trough....Gotta wait for the ULL to move itself before development really occurs.

[Steve]

>>It would not suprize me at all if this did not become more then a low pressure area being sheared all the way across the gulf.

Whatever that means, I think you should bet yourself and if you are wrong, make a $10 contibution to the site.

Steve

[Sanibel]

ULL moving into the Gulf is still the dominate feature of this system.

[mattpetre]

Thank you for the answer Normandy. I guess I just wasn't sure if thre really was much surface low left at this point and all the talk of relocation on many other storms, it just appears to be a really difficult thing to predict to me.

I could imagine this reforming an LLC anywhere from E. Central FL coast to South of Bahamas, and it just seems that the forecast of the storm would be vastly different in those diffferent cases of LLC formation. It's the case of we may not have much time, but we really don't know what it's going to do yet.

[jaxfladude]

deleted

[Derek Ortt]

its not important if the low reforms in the C Bahamas... the effects in Florida would be the same and the final landfall likely is not going to be affected