Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[skysummit]

Well wouldn't that be a lovely run for south Louisiana. Here's the 00z GFDL.....the blue line:

[Ivanhater]

Graphic updated...Southeast Louisiana the target tonight...North central gulfcoast looks most likely....rainy and windy weekend in store for us

[Wx_Warrior]

Ivan...Your take on this system breaking the ridge instead of heading west?

[skysummit]

Ivan...Your take on this system breaking the ridge instead of heading west?

The 00z GFS showed a ridge protecting Texas more so than the northern gulf coast.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan...Your take on this system breaking the ridge instead of heading west?

Well looking at the models, it doesnt look it is going to shoot due north or anything while in the gulf...most likely a general wnw heading in the gulf giving everybody along the north gulfcoast nasty weather

[Ivanhater]

00Z UKMET...New Orleans area

[skysummit]

00z EURO.....still keeps it west and looks to push it just south of Houston:

[Wx_Warrior]

link?

[southerngale]

link?

00Z ECMWF

[Extremeweatherguy]

Except for the wacky 0z GFS (with it's strange, brief north movement in the GOM), there has definitely been a shift west with potential track overnight. Yesterday afternoon the target looked like New Orleans, but right now it looks more like SW Louisiana. Even the CONU has shifted a good deal south and west..

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

(notice how the CONU has shifted since yesterday? It now aims at SW Louisiana instead of New Orleans)

..If I had to make an honest call right now, I would say that the upper TX coast or SW Louisiana are at the greatest potential risk down the road. This statement is based on what I have been hearing from the mets, the current model trends and the expected building ridge.

[caneman]

Well, the NOGAPS shifted significantly NOrth. Still say this doesn't make it WEst of LA.

[ronjon]

Except for the wacky 0z GFS (with it's strange, brief north movement in the GOM), there has definitely been a shift west with potential track overnight. Yesterday afternoon the target looked like New Orleans, but right now it looks more like SW Louisiana. Even the CONU has shifted a good deal south and west..

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

(notice how the CONU has shifted since yesterday? It now aims at SW Louisiana instead of New Orleans)

..If I had to make an honest call right now, I would say that the upper TX coast or SW Louisiana are at the greatest potential risk down the road. This statement is based on what I have been hearing from the mets, the current model trends and the expected building ridge.

Not sure about the shift to the west in the model runs. The GFS, UKMET, and CMC take it into NOLA. The Euro stays with the upper TX coast. The NOGAPs is furthest west and south. The GFS is ejecting out a piece of energy from off of CA which is weakening the western extent of the ridge. HPC seemed to buy off on that scenario this morning. We shall see. Not sure with the intensity either with the ULL in the vicinity. GFDL now only bringing it to tropical storm strength.

[Meso]

06z GFS @ 60 Hours



06 NAM @ 72 Hours

[Meso]

That looks rather odd,a TS half way inland

[Extremeweatherguy]

Except for the wacky 0z GFS (with it's strange, brief north movement in the GOM), there has definitely been a shift west with potential track overnight. Yesterday afternoon the target looked like New Orleans, but right now it looks more like SW Louisiana. Even the CONU has shifted a good deal south and west..

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

(notice how the CONU has shifted since yesterday? It now aims at SW Louisiana instead of New Orleans)

..If I had to make an honest call right now, I would say that the upper TX coast or SW Louisiana are at the greatest potential risk down the road. This statement is based on what I have been hearing from the mets, the current model trends and the expected building ridge.

Not sure about the shift to the west in the model runs. The GFS, UKMET, and CMC take it into NOLA. The Euro stays with the upper TX coast. The NOGAPs is furthest west and south. The GFS is ejecting out a piece of energy from off of CA which is weakening the western extent of the ridge. HPC seemed to buy off on that scenario this morning. We shall see. Not sure with the intensity either with the ULL in the vicinity. GFDL now only bringing it to tropical storm strength.

The CMC has never been a good tropical model to begin with though, so that can be thrown out. Also, while the GFS, GFDL and UKMET move this into NOLA..the EURO, NOGAPS, HWRF do not. Basically...I just do not believe this storm will turn N/NNW in the GOM before turning back west like the GFS and GFDL is trying to show this morning. The ridge is still too strong and I think a general WNW motion is most likely.

You can see the unrealistic GFS and GFDL north turn in the Gulf here at this link: http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... _model.gif

I just doubt we will see anything that sharp. IF it is going to turn, it would probably be more gradual.

[HURAKAN]

That looks rather odd,a TS half way inland

Maybe it's trying to imitate Erin in this one!!!

[Chacor]

Not quite, that's for 35m, so that's still a TD at sfc.

[Meso]

There isn't that much difference in sfc and 35m winds. And the interesting part of it,is it is a depression at first as it's moving inland but then intensifies the further north and inland it goes.It is most likely nothing,just odd to see it do such a thing with a system.

[cycloneye]

6z GFDL goes to the mouth of Mississippi.But track is suspect because of that initial northward movement.


890
WHXX04 KWBC 191123
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.0 79.8 300./ 6.0
6 26.7 79.7 5./ 7.1
12 27.4 80.0 341./ 7.0
18 27.8 81.1 291./11.2
24 27.1 83.9 256./25.6
30 26.9 84.9 255./ 9.3
36 26.6 85.6 248./ 6.2
42 26.7 85.7 307./ 2.0
48 27.3 86.0 331./ 6.2
54 28.0 86.9 309./10.3
60 28.6 87.6 313./ 8.4
66 29.4 88.6 306./11.5
72 29.8 89.8 288./11.9
78 30.5 91.2 299./13.9
84 31.3 92.9 294./16.2
90 32.1 94.4 297./15.4
96 33.0 95.8 303./14.6
102 34.1 96.5 329./13.0
108 35.6 96.5 1./14.8
114 37.5 95.7 23./19.9
120 39.8 93.9 38./26.7
126 42.5 91.0 47./34.7

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, the northward movement of the GFDL off the FL coast and then the other northward movement of both the GFS and GFDL in the Gulf is very suspect to me. I just cannot see such a sharp turn playing out. Hopefully the 12z GFS and GFDL, with new data, will be more realistic.