EPAC: TD 13-E=Last Advisory : T1.5/1.5 (Still alive!)

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[RL3AO]

Almost a closed circulation.

[CrazyC83]

Wow this has sure developed in a hurry! I wouldn't be surprised to see TD13-E soon...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm very very impressed with this system. This system is as impressive as Ivo to me. I would say 40 knots. This is also much larger.

[Chacor]

WTPN21 PHNC 190930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8N 126.4W TO 17.8N 130.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.9N 126.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9N 126.7W,
APPROXIMATELY 915 NM WEST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN
19/0616Z AMSU MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK, DEVELOPING
BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR OUTFLOW. RECENT
UW-CIMSS PRODUCTS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED
ON IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 200930Z.//
NNNN

ABPZ20 KNHC 191016
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM IVO CENTERED ABOUT 565 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM IVO ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Very close to 140W already, so this could become another CPac storm.

[cycloneye]

19/1200 UTC 16.9N 127.3W T2.0/2.0 98E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

Very close to 140W already, so this could become another CPac storm.

Hmm, based on the 06z GFDL output it looks like it might recurve east around 130W.

[CrazyC83]

19/1200 UTC 16.9N 127.3W T2.0/2.0 98E -- East Pacific Ocean

They could almost call it TD13-E with those...

[Chacor]

Still T1.5 from TAFB.

[HURAKAN]

This most be already a depression. "Juliette" could form soon.

[WindRunner]

Yeah, it looked a little better than 12-E did late yesterday evening - though I guess it was Ivo by that point . . . so that says something right there. Convection has warmed considerably since last night's -80C tops, but is still significantly deep for "just an interesting blob of clouds" . . .

[Chacor]

Same thing as yesterday - an off-timing upgrade.

13E on NRL now, we should see first adv at 10 PDT.

[Chacor]

324
WTPZ23 KNHC 191645
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007
1700 UTC WED SEP 19 2007

...CORRECTED FOR 30 KT INITIAL INTENSITY...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.9W AT 19/1700Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.9W AT 19/1700Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 128.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.2N 129.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.2N 129.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.5N 129.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 19.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 127.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

Very weird track...

[Chacor]

110
WTPZ43 KNHC 191707
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007
1000 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY....VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION. DATA FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS AND A DVORAK INTENSITY FROM SAB SUPPORT A 30 KT INITIAL
INTENSITY.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ERODE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS A LARGE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE
DEPRESSION IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO INDUCE A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE FORECAST AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP OF THE CYCLONE...HOWEVER THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION...WITH A TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS.

FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION LOOKS RATHER BLEAK. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM IN 24 HOURS...ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE DOES NOT INGEST TOO
MUCH OF THE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1700Z 17.1N 127.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 17.2N 128.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 17.2N 129.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 17.2N 129.9W 35 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 129.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W 25 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 19.5N 127.5W 25 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[CrazyC83]

Looks like this may have a short life ahead of itself.

[HurricaneRobert]

Juliette's not usually a weak storm, but it looks like this one will be.

[CrazyC83]

Juliette's not usually a weak storm, but it looks like this one will be.

If it even gets that far - it doesn't look as good as it did a few hours ago.