Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[mascpa]

I keep hearing about the South Florida drought. I live in Jupiter Farms and I've had tons of rain the last six weeks; I don't need or want any more rain. My pond is alomst full as it is.

[Lifesgud2]

Folks this is just my opinion but I don't think 93L is going to develop at least anytime soon. I did think there was a chance yesterday but it is not impressing me at all this morning. The ULL has got it right now.

I continue to look at Ex-Ingrid which is now in a marginally favorable environment and is starting really blowup convection (some of it is near the "LLC" now) as she moves WNW north of Puerto Rico. This is where she may make her run and what I have been calling for for the past 5 days.

You gotta stop with the -removed-. yesterday with the watches and warnings, and now with ingrid. come on dude...

[Stormcenter]

Folks correct me if I'm wrong but "if" and when this gets going based on what
the models are showing it is going to be a quick mover.

[DESTRUCTION5]

With the 1st visibles i don't see anything remotely close to being a LLC in 93L..

[Agua]

If anything, there may be a very broad closed low which is already halfway across the peninsula. Don't see a tight LLC either.

[cycloneye]

Below is the latest position from the tropical models.

LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 79.9W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

If that is correct about the position of weak low,is great news as when it emerges in gulf,it will have less water to move thru.

[Ed Mahmoud]

With the 1st visibles i don't see anything remotely close to being a LLC in 93L..

Unless the LLC forms close to the ULL in the Gulf, I'd guess it'll form off Northeast Florida where all the storms are, which means Texas should be safe.

Maybe even New Orleans is too far West.

And the farther North it forms, the sooner it'd make a second landfall on the Gulf, and the weaker it'd be.


Might just get lucky and have a weak system bringing beneficial rains to the mid-South as it decays inland.

[boca]

93L doesn't look like it will produce any rain for S FL since its not moving west, but more NW. The tail of this thing is what I was counting on for rain,but the whole system seems to be shifting northward towards NE Florida.

[ronjon]

Here's my two cents - I think the LLC will reform somewhere in the eastern GOM tomorrow so it's current position off the east coast probably doesn't mean a whole lot. I'm confused by what the models are picking up on for tropical development. If I examine the GFS lower and upper levels, it looks like it wants to drill the ULL down to the surface and convert it to a tropical cyclone. Seems inplausible to me but stranger things have happened.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Below is the latest position from the tropical models.

LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 79.9W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

If that is correct about the position of weak low,is great news as when it emerges in gulf,it will have less water to move thru.

Good. In my humbly uneducated opinion, no way anything goes more than 15ºW while gaining no more than 2º of latitude.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[cycloneye]

Closeup Visible of NRL

I dont see a LLC in all the area.

[Frank2]

My own guess is that the entire area will move very little, or very slowly west-northwest (at least for the next day or so) with little or no development...

[k4sdi]

[HURAKAN]

A lot of rainfall over northern Florida. It seems that until the ULL moves away nothing will develop.

[Stormcenter]

I think the upper low has a better chance transitioning into warm core system then any surface feature forming to it's east. Anyway if it does develop it looks like it will be sub tropical. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[boca]

Their is a circulation about 30 miles off of the Palm Beaches moving slowly north. I think this will be a Carolina system atleast rain wise, including the north half of Florida.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[MWatkins]

Looks like the GFDL is doing pretty well so far. It had sniffed out the N movement (which may continue a little longer).

Afterwards...whatever surface low is there will likely be pulled westward around the ULL and at the base of the ridge setting up to the north.

If the GFDL is right we could even see some WSW movement tomorrow into Friday...

Either way there won't be much development until the surface low reaches the eastern Gulf...which could be tomorrow. So far things are happening right on schedule.

MW

[Stormcenter]

Their is a circulation about 30 miles off of the Palm Beaches moving slowly north. I think this will be a Carolina system atleast rain wise, including the north half of Florida.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Link please.

[hial2]

I keep hearing about the South Florida drought. I live in Jupiter Farms and I've had tons of rain the last six weeks; I don't need or want any more rain. My pond is alomst full as it is.

Well,you've been lucky!..Lake O, which "feeds" half of Fl during the dry season is @ 4 feet below normal for this time of year..and the end of rainy season is rapidly approaching
Unless it rains soon,and a lot, on the rivers and canals that feed it....

Note: the drought is no better in NC..