Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I don't see a sfc low near the models' initialization (27.2N and 79.9W). Additionally, winds along the E Florida coast (NNW and N at most stations) and Settlement Point, Bahamas (N wind in latest observation) don't support a defined circulation ~20-30 miles off Stuart, FL. I don't see a low-level cloud movement (rotation) in the area. Something could form at the sfc when the upper low moves out of the area, but the uncertainties are great at the time. I don't see any circulation on Miami radar.

RAMSDIS visibles

I do see a radar circulation (low-level?) ESE of Palm Beach, FL.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hard to tell, witb circulation around ULL, but maybe a hint of rotation East of PBI.

[x-y-no]

Pressure at Fowey Rocks hit its minimum early this morning at 1010.3mb. It has risen 1.4mb in the last 3 hours.

Same for Lake Worth - 1010.2mb a 5AM, up to 1011.3 at 9AM.

Didn't check all the west coast stations, but pressure seems to be rising on that side too, albeit not as fast. Seems like the surface low is weakening.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like the GFDL is doing pretty well so far. It had sniffed out the N movement (which may continue a little longer).

Afterwards...whatever surface low is there will likely be pulled westward around the ULL and at the base of the ridge setting up to the north.

If the GFDL is right we could even see some WSW movement tomorrow into Friday...

Either way there won't be much development until the surface low reaches the eastern Gulf...which could be tomorrow. So far things are happening right on schedule.

MW

What things are happening on schedule and what should anyone along the Gulf coast
expect out of this when these things happen?

[MWatkins]

Looks like the GFDL is doing pretty well so far. It had sniffed out the N movement (which may continue a little longer).

Afterwards...whatever surface low is there will likely be pulled westward around the ULL and at the base of the ridge setting up to the north.

If the GFDL is right we could even see some WSW movement tomorrow into Friday...

Either way there won't be much development until the surface low reaches the eastern Gulf...which could be tomorrow. So far things are happening right on schedule.

MW

What things are happening on schedule and what should anyone along the Gulf coast
expect out of this when these things happen?

1. Significant development (or really any development) is not forecast to occur today. Tomorrow is the day for development...

2. The surface low (and surface pressures are still lower to the east of Florida) should continue to drift around some for a while before starting to move westward later today/tonight. This system is not heading to the Carolinas.

3. The system looks very subtropical now. Any chance to converting to a classic warm core tropical system will be tomorrow over the Gulf.

There is really nothing happening right now that wasn't forseen by the models. The good news is at least so far...the upper low isn't getting out of the way...so the upper ewnvironment remains unfavorable...for now.

However, the overall pattern has more curvature than yesterday...

I suppose time will tell...

MW

[Derek Ortt]

looks like the chances of a significant hurricane for the WGOM ar a little lower today. None of the guidance ahs this solution. A track farther west likely will mean increased shear.

Looking at it right now, likely no development until Friday and maybe a moderate TS striking somewhere between Destin and Intracoastal City

[x-y-no]

Pressure is lower by 1mb at Canaveral East than at Canaveral and the lowest pressure I can find at any station in the area is 1010.8mb at Settlement Point in the Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued.

WTNT01 KNGU 191200Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191200Z SEP 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 82.0W TO 27.6N 85.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC
DATA AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 80.0W OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF WEST PALM BEACH, FL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS. NEARBY STATIONS HAVE REPORTED A 3MB DECREASE IN
PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXPECT THE PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN
BEFORE BEGINING TO DEEPEN IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 201200Z.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like the GFDL is doing pretty well so far. It had sniffed out the N movement (which may continue a little longer).

Afterwards...whatever surface low is there will likely be pulled westward around the ULL and at the base of the ridge setting up to the north.

If the GFDL is right we could even see some WSW movement tomorrow into Friday...

Either way there won't be much development until the surface low reaches the eastern Gulf...which could be tomorrow. So far things are happening right on schedule.

MW

Mike,

The sfc low appears (in my eyes) to be stationary off Palm Beach County, FL. I don't see a sfc low near the 12Z models' initialization (27.2N and 79.9W). I'm checking the NWS Miami radar loop. I can't see an LLC on the visible floater. Where do you see a N drift? Do you expect a sfc low reformation off east-central FL? Additionally, the new QuikSCAT supports a broad circulation further SE near the Bahamas (not east-central FL near the models' position).

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Thanks in advance!

[caneman]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

NEw quickscat. Broad somewhat ill defined low is there. and there are TD strength wins to the NE

[DESTRUCTION5]

Something interesting may be happening East of St Lucie County..All of a sudden Rain pattern is not going E to W and now has a slight rotation look to it..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[cpdaman]

i think we should be looking just west of tampa and to the SW for signs of a developing LLC

per the TCFA that is.

[MWatkins]

Low has been drifting north since yesterday. However...I don't see much short-term motion...

MW

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks for the clarification, Mike.

On another note, did anyone notice that the TCFA (posted above) was issued for the upper low's position in SW Florida? That's an interesting change. I wonder if the upper low may form a sfc low in the Gulf of Mexico, as 93L is heavily involved with the system. The upper low is much more defined than any sfc low associated with 93L. It would be interesting if we were looking at the wrong area...

[Stormcenter]

Looks like the GFDL is doing pretty well so far. It had sniffed out the N movement (which may continue a little longer).

Afterwards...whatever surface low is there will likely be pulled westward around the ULL and at the base of the ridge setting up to the north.

If the GFDL is right we could even see some WSW movement tomorrow into Friday...

Either way there won't be much development until the surface low reaches the eastern Gulf...which could be tomorrow. So far things are happening right on schedule.

MW

What things are happening on schedule and what should anyone along the Gulf coast
expect out of this when these things happen?

1. Significant development (or really any development) is not forecast to occur today. Tomorrow is the day for development...

2. The surface low (and surface pressures are still lower to the east of Florida) should continue to drift around some for a while before starting to move westward later today/tonight. This system is not heading to the Carolinas.

3. The system looks very subtropical now. Any chance to converting to a classic warm core tropical system will be tomorrow over the Gulf.

There is really nothing happening right now that wasn't forseen by the models. The good news is at least so far...the upper low isn't getting out of the way...so the upper ewnvironment remains unfavorable...for now.

However, the overall pattern has more curvature than yesterday...

I suppose time will tell...

MW

Thank you very much for your opinion on 93L.

[caneman]

Something interesting may be happening East of St Lucie County..All of a sudden Rain pattern is not going E to W and now has a slight rotation look to it..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I think this may be the low folks. Watch it is moving SSw and should put it just off my coast here in CLearwater by AM tomorrow.

[Stratosphere747]

I was beginning to think that maybe we should be looking more towards that ULL. We had discussed the possibility a few days back when it seemed a few of the models were trying to develop this feature instead.

Has to be a long shot though?

[Stormcenter]

Thanks for the clarification, Mike.

On another note, did anyone notice that the TCFA (posted above) was issued for the upper low's position in SW Florida? That's an interesting change. I wonder if the upper low may form a sfc low in the Gulf of Mexico, as 93L is heavily involved with the system. The upper low is much more defined than any sfc low associated with 93L. It would be interesting if we were looking at the wrong area...

I was just going to post that. Any comments from the ProMets on this please?

[MWatkins]

The TCFA puts the center a little south of the NHC fix...but does not assume development under the upper low:

FROM THE TCFA:

SYNOPTIC
DATA AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 80.0W OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF WEST PALM BEACH, FL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS. NEARBY STATIONS HAVE REPORTED A 3MB DECREASE IN
PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXPECT THE PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN
BEFORE BEGINING TO DEEPEN IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea I agree with you Derek about this now. I had a chance to look at some maps etc last night and I'm now jumping off the "development" bandwagon...I too think this will just be a weak to moderate tropical storm non event. Kudos to Storm Center for calling this one yesterday .... It just doesn't look very favorable at all in the gulf.
I wouldn't be shocked if this doesn't develop into anything at all, but I do think a weak tropical storm is possible, completely opposite as to what I was thinking yesterday....It's starting to get late in the season with the unfavorable conditions across the
Atlantic, so perhaps that's a sign things are ending a bit early this year....Conditions don't lie....