Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[jasons2k]

Discussion from NWS Houston-Galveston. I couldn't have said it better myself:

HOWEVER...THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM WITH THIS PACKAGE REMAINS
THE WEEKEND PART OF THE FCST. HANGING OVER US LIKE THE SWORD OF
DAMOCLES...WE HAVE BEEN GOING THROUGH SOME ANGST CONCERNING THE
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE ERN
GULF IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE 12Z RUNS APPEARED TO HAVE REACHED
A CONSENSUS AND AIMED IT TOWARD THE LA COAST...THESE LATEST 00Z
SOLNS LOOK TO BE BACKING OFF ON THIS TREND A BIT. NAM KEEPS ITS
TRACK TO THE NORTH BUT THE GFS TRACK IS NOW A TOUCH MORE SOUTH.
ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST INSISTENT/CONSISTENT ON THE TX SHORES. A
LOOK AT THE OTHER MODELS DO INDICATE A GOOD SPREAD FROM TX OVER
TO LA. BUT HAVING SAID ALL THAT...WE ARE STILL A WAYS AWAY FROM
THE ACTUAL POSSIBLE EVENT. OVERALL FCST/GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY BE
CLEARER MORE ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS ACTUALLY DEVELOPED/INITIALIZED
INTO THE MODELS. SO UNTIL THEN...ALL WE CAN DO IS KEEP WATCHING
/WAITING/HOPING...

[Stormcenter]

The TCFA puts the center a little south of the NHC fix...but does not assume development under the upper low:

FROM THE TCFA:

SYNOPTIC
DATA AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 80.0W OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF WEST PALM BEACH, FL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS. NEARBY STATIONS HAVE REPORTED A 3MB DECREASE IN
PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXPECT THE PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN
BEFORE BEGINING TO DEEPEN IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

It's moving at a pretty decent clip per the TCFA. Does anyone else see this circulation on visible besides them?

[Stratosphere747]

TCFA disco makes sense. Must admit it was easy to become confused with the graphic and leading to an assumption of the ULL being the focus.

[boca]

93L will be the rain bust of the summer from West Palm south. Yes it rained along the Treasure coast. I don't see us getting out of the dry slot and the tail will be north of S FL by the time it makes that westward shift.

[Derek Ortt]

a weak to moderate TS is not a non event

this is nto going to be moving fast, so flooding is likely

[Sanibel]

Let's see what the diurnal sun heating does when it intensifies the daily thunderstorms. It could whip up a faster formation of low pressure.

We are in the dry spot on this so far. We could use a flooder to make up a rain deficit.

[AJC3]

A quick comment here...whatever surface circulation there was yesterday doesn't look as well defined today - in fact, the appearance is more like that of a n-s trough axis. There's good reason for this. Remember yesterday my blurb about the surface pressure falls being likely to follow the upper level divergence? This is what appears to be occurring - the RUC analysis fields show the strongest H25 divergence has shifted north to around Cape Canaveral-Daytona Beach. Buoy obs at 41009 (SW-SE) and 41010 (E) support the idea of an elongated (or elongating) trough.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner @ 7:10AM:

The complex area of disturbed weather over FL has been declared 93L.

Discussion:

Highly complex area of disturbed weather this morning over Fl with upper low near the FL W coast and a 1010mb surface low N of Miami. SSW winds on the SE side of the upper low are providing heavy shear across the surface low along with closeness to land to prevent significant short term development. All global model guidance continues to support tropical or sub-tropical development as this system moves westward into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours.

Track:

Model guidance is now being run on the 1010mb low center and there is large spread in the guidance envelop from the 00Z and 06Z runs. The respectable global guidance including the GFS and UKMET take the system more WNW toward SE LA and the New Orleans area while the NOGAPS and EURO take the system more westward toward SW LA or the SE TX coast. The hurricane run model GFDL takes the system along much of the S LA coast and inland east of Lake Charles. Hence solutions range from coastal MS to coastal TX….fact is the guidance is of little use at the moment until a well defined center forms. History with similar ill defined Gulf systems with a surface low SE of an upper level low suggest a highly shear system that over time re-locates its center more to the N and E where the deeper convection is located. If one were to look at the weak circulation center this morning on radar all the activity is well removed to the N and E. A weaker system will likely track more rightward (northward) while a stronger system would track more leftward (westward)

Intensity:

The GFDL brings the system to near 51kts before is skirts it along the LA coast and then intensifies it more well inland over N TX? The SHIPS guidance is very aggressive and brings the system to a 70kt hurricane. Given the fairly unfavorable upper air pattern and large mass of dry air over the SE US and E/C Gulf only slow development is likely. IF the upper low is able to progress westward and allow more upper ridging to build over the low level center then a faster rate of deepening would be possible.

Impacts:

Wide spread of model solutions makes any attempt at local impacts mute at this time. Will likely need an increase in wind and seas starting Saturday across the coastal waters even with a track E of our area. Should the EURO or NOGAPS verify or model guidance shift westward significant forecast changes will be needed in all areas including much increases in tides, seas, winds, and QPF.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My forecast and a dollar plus tax is good for medium French Fries at Mickie D's


But the Texas coast will have a fine weekend, warm, but offshore flow keeps humidity reasonable, surf may be a little rough from a possible system well to the East.


My wife is 8 months pregnant, and doesn't enjoy road trips, and GLS is over an hour away, but how many more warm and generally dry weekends will we have left this Autumn. There is a pool where we go, so if surf is rough the kids won't go into the Gulf.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This looks like what my eye caught on Radar:

FROM THE TCFA:

SYNOPTIC
DATA AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 80.0W OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF WEST PALM BEACH, FL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS. NEARBY STATIONS HAVE REPORTED A 3MB DECREASE IN
PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXPECT THE PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN
BEFORE BEGINING TO DEEPEN IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

[Sanibel]

The cloud movement looks like the Low is trying to form over Canaveral because of the change in direction between cloud bands up there. But that is probably just a quirk and the center is further south closer to Quickscat.

[Stormcenter]

A quick comment here...whatever surface circulation there was yesterday doesn't look as well defined today - in fact, the appearance is more like that of a n-s trough axis. There's good reason for this. Remember yesterday my blurb about the surface pressure falls being likely to follow the upper level divergence? This is what appears to be occurring - the RUC analysis fields show the strongest H25 divergence has shifted north to around Cape Canaveral-Daytona Beach. Buoy obs at 41009 (SW-SE) and 41010 (E) support the idea of an elongated (or elongating) trough.

So how does this affect the long term development and track of 93L?

[storms in NC]

This is going to be one good size storm. I hate to see it going into Miss and La tho.

[jdray]

North Florida will gladly share our rain with South Florida.

We have had 9+ inches since monday in a lot of areas.
Been under a flood watch since Monday, will continue through tomorrow.

[MCWX]

looks like the chances of a significant hurricane for the WGOM ar a little lower today. None of the guidance ahs this solution. A track farther west likely will mean increased shear.

Looking at it right now, likely no development until Friday and maybe a moderate TS striking somewhere between Destin and Intracoastal City

The initialization at 27.2 may not mean very much and likewise, the 12z Beta and Advection guidance may not be very insightful either.

If there is to be a tropical transition (TT) it probably will take another 2 days or so. As you know, TTs are often slow to occur, often do not yield a major (Cat3+) tropical cyclone and are often not handled well by the numerical weather guidance.

Because this looks more extra-tropical than anything else, I would be inclined at this stage of development to favor guidance that is more skillful predicting the synoptic scale. If one looks at the trends and consistency of the ensemble means from various global centers, there seems to be a rather robust signal for a more west cyclone.

There is some good work by Bosart and others on these types of transitions.

We shall see if a more west cyclone as projected by the global model enembles is correct.

[Cape Verde]

Impacts:

Wide spread of model solutions makes any attempt at local impacts mute at this time.

It makes them more moot than mute.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Systems like 93L are interesting because they don't look tropical, they don't look non-tropical, then they must look ¿_________?.

Good ¿question?

[storms in NC]

I think this will build into a bigger storm than they say. The gulf it very warm and this Low has that look already. So La should start watching this now. Not to wait till someone has to tell them when to leave. Get stuck in a line of traffic. If some need a way out start planing now not a day away. I would hate a repeat of Katrina. Not good.

[jwayne]

Maybe I'm wrong, but it sure looks like that ULL is trying to work it's way down to the surface (maybe I'm misinterpreting visible sat.) Is it possible that this is occurring now?

[mattpetre]

Latest:

Systems like 93L are interesting because they don't look tropical, they don't look non-tropical, then they must look ¿_________?.

Good ¿question?

I would say this system looks manic-depressive or bipolar... hmmmm, bi-tropical?