Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Stormcenter]

I think this will build into a bigger storm than they say. The gulf it very warm and this Low has that look already. So La should start watching this now. Not to wait till someone has to tell them when to leave. Get stuck in a line of traffic. If some need a way out start planing now not a day away. I would hate a repeat of Katrina. Not good.

Why do you think this will be the case and what do you mean by "bigger"?
The upper low looks bigger right now.

[Stormcenter]

Maybe I'm wrong, but it sure looks like that ULL is trying to work it's way down to the surface (maybe I'm misinterpreting visible sat.) Is it possible that this is occurring now?

A good question. I guess one of the Pro Mets can answer that.

[chadtm80]

A look at our 93L and the ULL

[boca]

It looks like a circulation off Daytona moving NW towards Jacksonville on satelite.

[HURAKAN]

180
ABNT20 KNHC 191520
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE EASTERN GULF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OR REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHERE A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

That sentence from the 11:30 AM is important in terms of the the possibility of the low redeveloping in the GOM.

THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OR REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHERE A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM.

[jwayne]

After reading TPC statement and looking at sat, willing to bet that ULL coming down to surface is how this plays out.

[lrak]

something looks to be West of Naples.

find a link.

still way South and the Euro may play out.

[Sanibel]

We have those little gray cotton ball puffs of clouds at the low level entrained into the circulation that you see when something is forming here.

[storms in NC]

I think this will build into a bigger storm than they say. The gulf it very warm and this Low has that look already. So La should start watching this now. Not to wait till someone has to tell them when to leave. Get stuck in a line of traffic. If some need a way out start planing now not a day away. I would hate a repeat of Katrina. Not good.

Why do you think this will be the case and what do you mean by "bigger"?
The upper low looks bigger right now.

Look at the size it is now. Not bad for a low. I think (I have to go back and look) that they have it going in at a TS or low cat 1? I think it will be a top cat3. But that is JMHO.

[k4sdi]

Does anyone have a link to the SSTs in the Gulf?

Thanks in advance.

[storms in NC]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

[k4sdi]

something looks to be West of Naples.

find a link.

still way South and the Euro may play out.

Looking around 25.6 by 82.4 on the Tampa radar, it almost looks as if there is a hint of circulation trying to form. Although looking in that area from Key West it's not as evident.

Sanibel - approximately where are you out there?

[HURAKAN]

[jwayne]

Maybe I'm wrong, but it sure looks like that ULL is trying to work it's way down to the surface (maybe I'm misinterpreting visible sat.) Is it possible that this is occurring now?

A good question. I guess one of the Pro Mets can answer that.

anyone with an answer on this one?

[maxx9512]

Looking at Tampa radar the showers off the SWFLA coast near Naples don't appear to be moving as do the showers elsewhere around the state. Is this an illusion or could the ULL be working its way down to the surface? Any thoughts on that?
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Steve]

>>Maybe I'm wrong, but it sure looks like that ULL is trying to work it's way down to the surface (maybe I'm misinterpreting visible sat.) Is it possible that this is occurring now?

I think it's just the look because of the moisture. Air Force Met took a lot of time to explain what the scenario was for development and how we'd get to point B from point A. It's on the talking tropics forum somewhere around the mid 30's or early 40's pages. The key point was that the low level center wouldn't form in spite of the ULL but because of the upper level low. It's a very detailed description of what we were going to witness on Tuesday and today.

Steve

[tolakram]

Maybe I'm wrong, but it sure looks like that ULL is trying to work it's way down to the surface (maybe I'm misinterpreting visible sat.) Is it possible that this is occurring now?

A good question. I guess one of the Pro Mets can answer that.

anyone with an answer on this one?

I'd like an opinion on that too. Looking at the visible I now see mid to possibly low level clouds moving around the low. Yesterday I couldn't detect the upper low without looking at the water vapor.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My gut, the new GFS idea into Biloxi or Mobile, if anything does form, is probably on the money.

[k4sdi]

>>............. Air Force Met took a lot of time to explain what the scenario was for development and how we'd get to point B from point A. It's on the talking tropics forum somewhere around the mid 30's or early 40's pages. ..............

Steve

Still looking, can you give me a better hint where that post is? Or a link would be even greater for a lazy old man like me.

Thanks!