Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[mattpetre]

I would say it looks like there are two surface lows at this point, one that we've been following on the East Coast and one that is developing under the ULL on the West. Question is, what does this do to the overall picture if the ULL does create a surface circulation? My bet is that it weakens the ULL over the long haul and forces a more westward movement of the other surface low by allowing steering currents to take effect more than the low itself (I'm thinking the one that forms under the ULL will eventually dissipate into nothingness.) Does any of this make sense?

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like if anything forms it will be the upper low transitioning to warm core, I see nothing off the east coast of Florida today.

[Steve]

>>My gut, the new GFS idea into Biloxi or Mobile, if anything does form, is probably on the money.

Could be. But then what? WPAC teleconnections would indicate that the system would still slide WNWish as a ridge builds in unless it squeezes up and out. As it turns out, Wipha went much farther inland into China than had been indicated. That stuff isn't exact, but it's been pretty solid this year.

The entire theory of a coast runner on a slight WNW slope maybe all the way into central Texas seemed reasonable if this was an LA hit. I'm still not sold on a LA hit either, but it would seem that farther west/TX would still seem reasonable. I don't know. We'll have to wait to see if we get the WSW motion tomorrow in front of a gradual turn to the WNW.

Steve

[dtrain44]

Lest we forget, we don't actually have a cyclone yet - the model tracks should be taken for what they are, which is a very preliminary estimate. Obviously, though, the further south 93L can get, the wider the potential GOM threat area.

[Steve]

>>Still looking, can you give me a better hint where that post is? Or a link would be even greater for a lazy old man like me.

Yes...and that is what we were talking about last night. The ULL would baroclinically spark it at the sfc...get it going...then the shear would kick up and a sheared low would track into the GoM and wait for better conditions later in the period.

This was way later than the technical discussion. But Search keeps dying on me mid-stream, so I can't find what I wanted to. You'd have to scroll through either that thread or this one for more information. Sorry.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,if possible,that closeup image can you get it more south and west to see what is going on off the West Florida coast?

[Buck]

I think this may develope into a Schizotropical Storm. It can't make up it's mind!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think a surface low is beginning to form just to the SW of Ft. Myers.

[Wx_Warrior]

Let's not forget this is NOT a longer tracker either my friend....Very close to the Gulf Coast so we aren't going to see drastic shifts...Some, absolutely. If the EURO starts moving more east then it could be an all-in scenario.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: HURAKAN,if possible,that closeup image can you get it more south and west to see what is going on off the West Florida coast?

Luis, it would have to done manually because the close-up already comes like that.

See you later, have class now.

[rockyman]

Circulation (at what level?) is really tightening up off the SW Fla coast:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[k4sdi]

Circulation (at what level?) is really tightening up off the SW Fla coast:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Yea, and It's finally starting to show on the Key West radar as well. After lunch I'll gather these images and make a loop.

Edited for fat fingers.

[rockyman]

[HouTXmetro]

It looks like a LLC is trying to form just SW of the ULL? Not good if this feature organizes. It would traverse the Loop Current.

[PTrackerLA]

I can see indications of a circulation on that loop but it's right under the UPPER level low. If my memory serves me correct, it takes quite a while for a full transition. Basically I don't expect much of a wind event anymore, just a big ole' subtropical mess of rain impacting the northern gulf coast this weekend.

[Sanibel]

The cell over Key West would not be moving east as it is if a surface feature were forming off SW Florida.

[rockyman]

The cell over Key West would not be moving east as it is if a surface feature were forming off SW Florida.

why not? cells south of a counterclockwise circulation would move east

[hiflyer]

IMHO there is about zip left east of Florida now....the ULL off the West Coast has dropped to near Ft Myers and is beginning to impact down towards the surface closer to itself than prior days....it is still east of the tongue. However...overall breadth of the whole thing is about 3x what it was a couple days ago... MIA radar says circular with the Lake about in the middle....MLB radar shows that but also a small circ east of Daytona with storms rolling coming in on the north side...Tampa Radar quite interesting...

[fci]

Thank you.
If a surface low were forming North of Key West, then a cell by Key West WOULD move East