Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

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jasons2k
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#721 Postby jasons2k » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:37 am

I think the evolution of this system will be much different than what I (and most) expected.

Last night, the local Fox met (Dr. Jim Siebert), said the evolution of this system would entail the ULL transitioning into a warm core LLC. At the time, I thought he was crazy and switched over to Dr. Neil Frank where he was looking for the existing low east of Miami to trek across Florida and eventually develop in the GOM.

Today, I think Dr. Siebert was onto something. I think the transition of the ULL to a warm core system is indeed a real possibility. The old low east of Miami has pretty much fallen apart. If anything, it is getting sling-shot around the periphery of the ULL, and may explain its northern movement. This shows the relative strength of the ULL; it is dominating the synoptics of the whole region. I think the old LLC will continue to dissipate and no longer be a viable entity.

Convection is starting to fire around the center of the ULL and this could (and should) begin the transition into a warm core/surface system. This process TAKES TIME but I think we are already seeing the beginning stages of this.

This also has me concerned for a few reasons. The obvious one is that we shift focus to the GOM already and this has a further SW initialization (SW of Naples) as opposed to a system coming across Central Florida. Also, if the new low can move west, it might have time the threaten the WGOM before the kicker out in CA comes into play and induces shear.

In summary, I think a highly-sheared system forming from the skeleton of the Bahamas low is now looking less likely, and we really need to watch the ULL for a transition into a tropical system. I also think the models will have to completely revisit the situation once (if) the ULL makes this transition.
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Re:

#722 Postby TampaFl » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:37 am

rockyman wrote:Circulation (at what level?) is really tightening up off the SW Fla coast:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes



Look at the cells moving ssw to south through Polk County. There still might be a LLC off the East Coast, because if a low was developing off the SW Coast (Which appears to be happening) those cells would be moving more wsw to sw would they not? Thoughts & comments welcomed. It is a big mess right now though.
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#723 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:38 am

if the LLC is forming off the SW Florida coast watch out. That would e the way this thing could be significant down the road.
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Re: Re:

#724 Postby rockyman » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:39 am

TampaFl wrote:
rockyman wrote:Circulation (at what level?) is really tightening up off the SW Fla coast:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes



Look at the cells moving ssw to south through Polk County. There still might be a LLC off the East Coast, because if a low was developing off the SW Coast (Which appears to be happening) those cells would be moving more wsw to sw would they not? Thoughts & comments welcomed. It is a big mess right now though.


while there is still some swirl off the east coast, a broader view of the whole mess seems to show a more substantial circulation forming off the SW coast...whether it's at the surface is still unclear to me
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#725 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:41 am

JB cut a video, mostly about the comeback of Ingrid as shear continues to drop, but showed the GFDL and NOLA.

JB had been calling for a Texas landfall, and because he doesn't backdown from a forecast made days in advance, that is still the forecast. But he mentioned learning a lesson during Rita, and when it becomes overwhelmingly obvious that this is a Central, not a Western Gulf storm, he implied he won't be as stubborn as he was with Rita.


So, even if you dock him a point for saying Texas a week out, he gets partial credit for predicting development in the Gulf. That is, he gets partial credit if something indeed develops in the Gulf.
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#726 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:44 am

>>So, even if you dock him a point for saying Texas a week out, he gets partial credit for predicting development in the Gulf. That is, he gets partial credit if something indeed develops in the Gulf.

He called for a hurricane hit on the US 6-10 days out last Friday (and probably a major). Even if it is only a tropical storm, and even if it doesn't directly impact Texas (because he didn't give a location except for Florida or the Gulf), then it was the best thing anyone put out there 5 days ago IMHO. Great work by JB regardlessly.

Steve
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#727 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:45 am

Anybody have a plot of pressures? Are the pressures near SW Florida lowering in relation to the rest of the area?
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#728 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:49 am

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

Pressures have been steady or rising at the closest buoy stations off SW Florida.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KFMY.html

Pressures have risen at Fort Myers, too.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#729 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:52 am

jschlitz wrote:I think the evolution of this system will be much different than what I (and most) expected.

Last night, the local Fox met (Dr. Jim Siebert), said the evolution of this system would entail the ULL transitioning into a warm core LLC. At the time, I thought he was crazy and switched over to Dr. Neil Frank where he was looking for the existing low east of Miami to trek across Florida and eventually develop in the GOM.

Today, I think Dr. Siebert was onto something. I think the transition of the ULL to a warm core system is indeed a real possibility. The old low east of Miami has pretty much fallen apart. If anything, it is getting sling-shot around the periphery of the ULL, and may explain its northern movement. This shows the relative strength of the ULL; it is dominating the synoptics of the whole region. I think the old LLC will continue to dissipate and no longer be a viable entity.

Convection is starting to fire around the center of the ULL and this could (and should) begin the transition into a warm core/surface system. This process TAKES TIME but I think we are already seeing the beginning stages of this.

This also has me concerned for a few reasons. The obvious one is that we shift focus to the GOM already and this has a further SW initialization (SW of Naples) as opposed to a system coming across Central Florida. Also, if the new low can move west, it might have time the threaten the WGOM before the kicker out in CA comes into play and induces shear.

In summary, I think a highly-sheared system forming from the skeleton of the Bahamas low is now looking less likely, and we really need to watch the ULL for a transition into a tropical system. I also think the models will have to completely revisit the situation once (if) the ULL makes this transition.


I agree that the low level vortex between GBI and Andros is gone-zo. A more vigorous low level vort has formed ENE of Cape Canaveral in an area of strong synoptic ascent. SLP in this area has fallen to ~1010MB. (see buoys 41009/41010). This feature appears as if it may be moving toward the Cape...but I'm not really sure at this moment....need to see a longer radar time lapse. This feature may or may not be transient (temporary)...we shall see.

Off the southwest Florida coast...I think the combination of southward moving low level CU lines and northwestward moving upper level CI blowoff is giving the appearance of a phantom LLC. While I wouldn't rule one out actually forming in that area, there hasn't been any indication of one in either the wind or SLP tendency from METARs, buoys, and C-MANs from southwest Florida to the keys.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#730 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:53 am

The "funny" thing about all of this is if the ULL were to transition into
warm core then the models were right all along. They saw this last weekend.
The Bahamas system (93L) yesterday never had a chance as long this upper low was near by. Another funny thing they still list 93L as an invest and it really is not
even there anymore.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#731 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:56 am

AJC3 wrote:
jschlitz wrote:I think the evolution of this system will be much different than what I (and most) expected.

Last night, the local Fox met (Dr. Jim Siebert), said the evolution of this system would entail the ULL transitioning into a warm core LLC. At the time, I thought he was crazy and switched over to Dr. Neil Frank where he was looking for the existing low east of Miami to trek across Florida and eventually develop in the GOM.

Today, I think Dr. Siebert was onto something. I think the transition of the ULL to a warm core system is indeed a real possibility. The old low east of Miami has pretty much fallen apart. If anything, it is getting sling-shot around the periphery of the ULL, and may explain its northern movement. This shows the relative strength of the ULL; it is dominating the synoptics of the whole region. I think the old LLC will continue to dissipate and no longer be a viable entity.

Convection is starting to fire around the center of the ULL and this could (and should) begin the transition into a warm core/surface system. This process TAKES TIME but I think we are already seeing the beginning stages of this.

This also has me concerned for a few reasons. The obvious one is that we shift focus to the GOM already and this has a further SW initialization (SW of Naples) as opposed to a system coming across Central Florida. Also, if the new low can move west, it might have time the threaten the WGOM before the kicker out in CA comes into play and induces shear.

In summary, I think a highly-sheared system forming from the skeleton of the Bahamas low is now looking less likely, and we really need to watch the ULL for a transition into a tropical system. I also think the models will have to completely revisit the situation once (if) the ULL makes this transition.


I agree that the low level vortex between GBI and Andros is gone-zo. A more vigorous low level vort has formed ENE of Cape Canaveral in an area of strong synoptic ascent. SLP in this area has fallen to ~1010MB. (see buoys 41009/41010). This feature appears as if it may be moving toward the Cape...but I'm not really sure at this moment....need to see a longer radar time lapse. This feature may or may not be transient (temporary)...we shall see.

Off the southwest Florida coast...I think the combination of southward moving low level CU lines and northwestward moving upper level CI blowoff is giving the appearance of a phantom LLC. While I wouldn't rule one out actually forming in that area, there hasn't been any indication of one in either the wind or SLP tendency from METARs, buoys, and C-MANs from southwest Florida to the keys.


AJC3 an excellent analysis on your part concerning the disturbance/invest 93L/ULL or whatever this is.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#732 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:56 am

Anyone who claimed this WASN'T going to be a major player down the road needs to go stand on their head. I don't recall too many, if any, that said this wouldn't become of anything. So please no self pats on the back for those who claim this storm will be a significant one.

And anytime a storm gets into the GOM one can say Texas because of our big coast line. If this does hit anywhere beside Texas, a lot of crow will be eaten on here once again. Let's hope for the best.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#733 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:57 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:Anyone who claimed this WASN'T going to be a major player down the road needs to go stand on their head. I don't recall too many, if any, that said this wouldn't become of anything. So please no self pats on the back for those who claim this storm will be a significant one.

And anytime a storm gets into the GOM one can say Texas because of our big coast line. If this does hit anywhere beside Texas, a lot of crow will be eaten on here once again. Let's hope for the best.


I give it a 20% chance of development but in tropics terms that is high.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#734 Postby jasons2k » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:59 am

AJC3 wrote:
I agree that the low level vortex between GBI and Andros is gone-zo. A more vigorous low level vort has formed ENE of Cape Canaveral in an area of strong synoptic ascent. SLP in this area has fallen to ~1010MB. (see buoys 41009/41010). This feature appears as if it may be moving toward the Cape...but I'm not really sure at this moment....need to see a longer radar time lapse. This feature may or may not be transient (temporary)...we shall see.

Off the southwest Florida coast...I think the combination of southward moving low level CU lines and northwestward moving upper level CI blowoff is giving the appearance of a phantom LLC. While I wouldn't rule one out actually forming in that area, there hasn't been any indication of one in either the wind or SLP tendency from METARs, buoys, and C-MANs from southwest Florida to the keys.


Thanks for the comments, as you are VERY close to the situation :-)

I think this is temporary. IMO the strong ascent/upper divergence is being caused by its relative location to the TUTT and will be transient. But like you said, we will see.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#735 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:05 pm

jschlitz wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
I agree that the low level vortex between GBI and Andros is gone-zo. A more vigorous low level vort has formed ENE of Cape Canaveral in an area of strong synoptic ascent. SLP in this area has fallen to ~1010MB. (see buoys 41009/41010). This feature appears as if it may be moving toward the Cape...but I'm not really sure at this moment....need to see a longer radar time lapse. This feature may or may not be transient (temporary)...we shall see.

Off the southwest Florida coast...I think the combination of southward moving low level CU lines and northwestward moving upper level CI blowoff is giving the appearance of a phantom LLC. While I wouldn't rule one out actually forming in that area, there hasn't been any indication of one in either the wind or SLP tendency from METARs, buoys, and C-MANs from southwest Florida to the keys.


Thanks for the comments, as you are VERY close to the situation :-)

I think this is temporary. IMO the strong ascent/upper divergence is being caused by its relative location to the TUTT and will be transient. But like you said, we will see.



If this is the Case I think we can throw a daggar in Gulf Development..All the energy is moving well north into GA and N FL and will not have a chance to get into them warm waters..IMO only chance for dev now is for sudden SW movement of this feature or the ULL developing like stated above..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
Last edited by DESTRUCTION5 on Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#736 Postby WeatherNLU » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:07 pm

You beat me to it with your "scribble" picture! :) Good job though, I think people can get the idea when they look at it! That's the area that I am concentrated on right now.

Image
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#737 Postby Pearl River » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:08 pm

There still seems to be a good radar presentation of a circulation east of DAB. Not sure at what level.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=mlb&loop=yes
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#738 Postby jasons2k » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:16 pm

WeatherNLU wrote:
mattpetre wrote:My scribble pic dissappeared, but just as well... I'm obviously not an artist.

Not sure why, I think it showed the idea rather well.


The image was removed because it had labeled the convection west of Naples as a "New Low Level Center". There is no LLC there, at least not yet. The image gave the impression that a new LLC had already formed.

We need to be careful when we post images and how they are worded. It's no different than posting a bogus forecast or observations in text. Thanks.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#739 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:17 pm

If the eventual LLC doesn't form SW of Florida, I'd say Texas is off the hook. Not talking climatology, or models, or anything else. Something forming at say, 27.5ºN and 79ºW would have to move almost 16º to the West while gaining no more than 2.5º of latitude, or almost a due West movement, which seems unlikely. About 278º, if my quick estimate is correct.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#740 Postby jdray » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:19 pm

Pearl River wrote:There still seems to be a good radar presentation of a circulation east of DAB. Not sure at what level.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=mlb&loop=yes


Pressures are dropping offshore DAB and JAX.
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