Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[Stormcenter]

Well looking at the lastest loop all I see (right now)is a huge "upper Level" low
moving westward into the GOM and nothing else. It really still looks
unimpressive even as an upper low and I have a hard time believing it all of sudden will transform into a well organized warm core system even in two days from now. I think it may stay cold core. Oh well I know things can change but as of now that is my take on it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed

What I find amusing is that how many people argue when models come out that doesn't support their "guess". Gotta love it!!!

[Ivanhater]

LLC is trying to form off the SW coast of FLorida under the ULL...if this develops then I'm think LA, or more likely TX.

I definitely see that, too. This means the models are being initialized about 120 miles too far north. The low will develop off SW Florida not track across Tampa. And that would result in a farther west track than the current models are forecasting. I 'd point out that the European predicted development off SW Florida between 25N-26N. 00Z European took it to the mid TX coast. GFS may be breaking down the ridge too quickly.

Oh come on...So GFS, GFDL, UKMET are all breaking down the ridge too fast? Most of the models bring it SW across Florida then bring it NW...setup the same regardless

[Stormcenter]

LLC is trying to form off the SW coast of FLorida under the ULL...if this develops then I'm think LA, or more likely TX.

I definitely see that, too. This means the models are being initialized about 120 miles too far north. The low will develop off SW Florida not track across Tampa. And that would result in a farther west track than the current models are forecasting. I 'd point out that the European predicted development off SW Florida between 25N-26N. 00Z European took it to the mid TX coast. GFS may be breaking down the ridge too quickly.

wxman57 can you please post one of your sat. maps and show us where you think this center is? If it's where I think you say it is then it is having a hard time with the UL.

[mattpetre]

Seems to be rather obviously WSW of Naples FL about 70 to 80 miles. Should this become the main surface low? Does this mean more time under the influence and thus not developing as quickly? We know some of the track implications, but what are the intensity implications?

[Rocketman]

Everyone along the Gulf Coast needs to keep a sharp eye on this one. South Texas to the FL Panhandle IMO.

It's all my fault.

I bought a generator yesterday.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC Animation

Changed track from past runs and now it goes further west close to the Texas/Louisiana border.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z CMC Animation

Changed track from past runs and now it goes further west close to the Texas/Louisiana border.

Chases Ingrid twards FL too...Humm gotta love this model..

[Cape Verde]

It will be a Houston/Galveston hit. Is this prediction based on my weather skills? No, I have none.

It's based on the fact that I'm supposed fly into Houston Hobby airport on Sunday afternoon, and it's just my luck. If you think I'm joking, consider that I bought ValuJet stock two days before one of its aircraft nosedived into the Florida Everglades.

Fortunately I have a friend in Beaumont, Texas, who seems to be a hurricane magnet, so the uncertainty in the storm track is going to be the debate between my bad luck and her magnetism. Sure, we can argue about ridges, shear, and steering currents. But the computer models fail to account for the fact that she's a magnet or that I have a terrible problem with timing.

[Duddy]

12z CMC Animation

Changed track from past runs and now it goes further west close to the Texas/Louisiana border.

That is a much more dangerous storm than before.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Re: SW of Florida- that is the only realistic shot for a Texas storm, as an low forming near DAB would have to track almost due West, 278º, to reach even the upper Texas coast.


Pro-Met* from Melbourne on 93L main thread, notes rotation on radar near DAB, and pressures falling East of Florida, and no falling pressures off SW Florida, so the Canadian solution of New Iberia or Intracoastal City may be in the ballpark.


(*hard to remember board nick)

[Wx_Warrior]

Here come the CMC lovers!!! j/k

That model makes me feel a little safer (I live in Beaumont).

[skysummit]

12z GFDL....still Louisiana:



WHXX04 KWBC 191724
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.8 79.9 335./ 6.0
6 27.1 80.2 317./ 3.5
12 27.1 81.4 270./11.2
18 26.9 83.3 265./16.9
24 26.6 84.3 250./ 9.2
30 26.7 84.8 279./ 4.9
36 26.7 85.6 276./ 6.5
42 26.9 86.2 285./ 6.4
48 27.4 86.6 323./ 5.8
54 27.8 87.1 311./ 6.1
60 28.4 87.8 309./ 8.2
66 28.9 88.8 295./10.1
72 29.4 90.0 295./11.7
78 29.8 91.6 283./13.9
84 30.3 93.2 288./15.4
90 31.0 94.9 292./15.8
96 32.2 96.3 313./17.6
102 33.7 97.1 332./16.2
108 35.6 97.3 354./18.4
114 37.5 97.1 6./19.2
120 40.0 95.6 31./27.5
126 42.9 93.1 40./34.9

[Ivanhater]

[Ed Mahmoud]

UK met text product, Mississippi or Alabama.

12UTC 22.09.2007 30.1N 88.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[cycloneye]

871
WHXX04 KWBC 191724
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.8 79.9 335./ 6.0
6 27.1 80.2 317./ 3.5
12 27.1 81.4 270./11.2
18 26.9 83.3 265./16.9
24 26.6 84.3 250./ 9.2
30 26.7 84.8 279./ 4.9
36 26.7 85.6 276./ 6.5
42 26.9 86.2 285./ 6.4
48 27.4 86.6 323./ 5.8
54 27.8 87.1 311./ 6.1
60 28.4 87.8 309./ 8.2
66 28.9 88.8 295./10.1
72 29.4 90.0 295./11.7
78 29.8 91.6 283./13.9
84 30.3 93.2 288./15.4
90 31.0 94.9 292./15.8
96 32.2 96.3 313./17.6
102 33.7 97.1 332./16.2
108 35.6 97.3 354./18.4
114 37.5 97.1 6./19.2
120 40.0 95.6 31./27.5
126 42.9 93.1 40./34.9

12z GFDL.

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 27.1N 83.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.09.2007 27.1N 83.9W WEAK

12UTC 21.09.2007 29.3N 85.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.09.2007 30.0N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.09.2007 30.1N 88.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.09.2007 30.6N 90.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.09.2007 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

12z UKMET

[LaBreeze]

I know the answer to my question is "stay alert", but I'm just wondering how concerned should I be with this system? I'm here in southern Vermilion Parish just to the west of Intracoastal City, Louisiana and Vermilion Bay.

[wxman57]

LLC is trying to form off the SW coast of FLorida under the ULL...if this develops then I'm think LA, or more likely TX.

I definitely see that, too. This means the models are being initialized about 120 miles too far north. The low will develop off SW Florida not track across Tampa. And that would result in a farther west track than the current models are forecasting. I 'd point out that the European predicted development off SW Florida between 25N-26N. 00Z European took it to the mid TX coast. GFS may be breaking down the ridge too quickly.

Oh come on...So GFS, GFDL, UKMET are all breaking down the ridge too fast? Most of the models bring it SW across Florida then bring it NW...setup the same regardless

Quite possibly, yes, as they did with most other storms this year. Dean and Felix in particular. With Katrina, there was a quite strong consensus that it would move north to the mid FL Panhandle. Just because there may be a consensus doesn't mean the consensus is right. And GFDL and HWRF do initilize off the GFS, right? So why should they be too different? I'll be interested to see the 12Z Euro. 00Z still had mid TX coast, but turning sharply at the end.

Don't see any low actually at the surface off the SW coast of FL, but that looks like the place it'll form. Though a few models (even the GFS) move a low WSW at first, none moves it as far southwest as it may form. Just be careful believing in the model consensus at this early stage. It's easy to get burned.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I know the answer to my question is "stay alert", but I'm just wondering how concerned should I be with this system? I'm here in southern Vermilion Parish just to the west of Intracoastal City, Louisiana and Vermilion Bay.

Medium. A 6.5 on a scale of 1 to 10.


IMHO.