Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[tolakram]

Tampa long range:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Might be a swirl. You can clearly see storms moving south and west, and far below the possible center you can see movement to the east.

[mattpetre]

I apologize for the wording on previous image. A pro met had agreed that he believed there was a surface feature here and I created the image in regards to that. My bad...

[PTrackerLA]

If the low-level center really is forming off the east coast of Florida it looks like it will emerge into the GOM north of Tampa which would limit the time over water unless it moves WSW. This thing is a total mess right now though!

[storms in NC]

Anyone who claimed this WASN'T going to be a major player down the road needs to go stand on their head. I don't recall too many, if any, that said this wouldn't become of anything. So please no self pats on the back for those who claim this storm will be a significant one.

And anytime a storm gets into the GOM one can say Texas because of our big coast line. If this does hit anywhere beside Texas, a lot of crow will be eaten on here once again. Let's hope for the best.

It may go to TX But I think not. Right now I would say from La to Fla panhandle. More like La-Miss to me.JMO

[skysummit]

Is this what you all are talking about???

[niner21]

So, are models going to be MIA or what???

is there anything to model any more?


This weekend is mine 93L ---> Go Away!!!

No Houston rain Sat or Sun please!!!!

[niner21]

If the low-level center really is forming off the east coast of Florida it looks like it will emerge into the GOM north of Tampa which would limit the time over water unless it moves WSW. This thing is a total mess right now though!

This is good news!!

I'm all for you guys having something to track/ watch but just not right now... (how selfish of me...)

[micktooth]

Nice NEXRAD loop. Shows some type of swirl east of the Cape. (I don't want to say circulation, for fear of my post beeing deleted. )

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... g_off=9999

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anyone who claimed this WASN'T going to be a major player down the road needs to go stand on their head. I don't recall too many, if any, that said this wouldn't become of anything. So please no self pats on the back for those who claim this storm will be a significant one.

And anytime a storm gets into the GOM one can say Texas because of our big coast line. If this does hit anywhere beside Texas, a lot of crow will be eaten on here once again. Let's hope for the best.

It may go to TX But I think not. Right now I would say from La to Fla panhandle. More like La-Miss to me.JMO

Only chance for a Texas storm would be a center forming offshore SW Florida, but that isn't where the pressures are falling. I still think SC at LSU will be played in outer bands of Jerry, (assuming no game canx), as I think odds better than 50/50 something develops, whether a TS/STS or low end hurricane, and I think Central LA to Destin is likely location.

In my highly unofficial opinion. Also unofficial- SC is a bowl team this year, but LSU is better, and playing at home. Bayou Bengals by 17. Under warm and dry conditions, Texas over Rice by 27. Would be more, but unlike OU and Stoops, Mac Brown doesn't run up the score, and UT will run the ball every play in the second half, even on 3rd and Long.

[mattpetre]

This storm seems really unable to decide what it would like to do... Seems like lots of vorticity all over the place and nothing wanting to take control other than the ULL. I think the Pros and the models have been onto something for a few days now, but I just can't see how we can really feel like we have a hold on what something as chaotic as this pattern is going to wind up doing. Hopefully it will just waste lots and lots of energy spinning up small areas and never really gain strength (at least a lot of the moisture is much further North today.)

[tolakram]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

I think pressure is starting to fall along the SW coast. All buoys are either steady or slowly falling. Readings later today should be interesting.

[Portastorm]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

I think pressure is starting to fall along the SW coast. All buoys are either steady or slowly falling. Readings later today should be interesting.

Great .... just great. Looks like we'll be spending the rest of today playing S2K's own brand of "Where's Waldo: Find 93L's LLC."

[Stormcenter]

This storm seems really unable to decide what it would like to do... Seems like lots of vorticity all over the place and nothing wanting to take control other than the ULL. I think the Pros and the models have been onto something for a few days now, but I just can't see how we can really feel like we have a hold on what something as chaotic as this pattern is going to wind up doing. Hopefully it will just waste lots and lots of energy spinning up small areas and never really gain strength (at least a lot of the moisture is much further North today.)

That is good point you mention in reference to the moisture. A majority of it seems to be way to the NE of wherever the "center" is supposed to be. I hate be a downer (for those looking for some tropical excitement) but this thing continues look to worse then better. It looks less orgainzed now then even this morning. Oh well we shall see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[AJC3]

A few more brief thoughts...

1) The vort offshore the Cape is moving a bit south of due west. It passed right over 41009 (1009.9MB) and appears to be heading for...well...me. MLB (1010.5MB). I think this vort will survive and trek across the peninsula overnight.

2) The RUC analysis fields are showing an increase in the H25 divergence over on the GOMEX side now.

So what me may be looking at overnight into THU morning is a combination of...

a) low level vorticity from whatever is leftover from the low level vort about to move onshore near MLB, and b) pressure falls induced from increasing synoptic ascent offshore southwest Florida... wind up "conspiring" to spin up the GOMEX low that the models are suggesting.

[mattpetre]

A few more brief thoughts...

1) The vort offshore the Cape is moving a bit south of due west. It passed right over 41009 (1009.9MB) and appears to be heading for...well...me. MLB (1010.5MB). I think this vort will survive and trek across the peninsula overnight.

2) The RUC analysis fields are showing an increase in the H25 divergence over on the GOMEX side now.

So what me may be looking at overnight into THU morning is a combination of...

a) low level vorticity from whatever is leftover from the low level vort about to move onshore near MLB, and b) pressure falls induced from increasing synoptic ascent offshore southwest Florida... wind up "conspiring" to spin up the GOMEX low that the models are suggesting.

Does this mean that the resulting GOM low will be possibly a combination of the features we are discussing on both sides of FL today? Is the ULL, still on track to fill in as quickly as thought before?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
~~~~~~~~~~
I think all the action is off the SW Florida coast now and the fact that all the convection that was around the weak LLC off the Cape is now drifting north away from that area supports the formation of a new LLC.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
~~~~~~~~~~
I think all the action is off the SW Florida coast now and the fact that all the convection that was around the weak LLC off the Cape is now drifting north away from that area supports the formation of a new LLC.

Where was the old one?
I'm sorry I couldn't resist.

[MGC]

Yep, if something is going to come of this is will be the ULL working its way down to the surface. So, quit looking at the east coast of Florida, too much shear and a dry slot is working its way up the coast. I can't recall a ULL becoming tropical in the GOM so if any of you do recall such an event I'd like to know about it. There does look to be some convection near the center of the ULL so perhaps the transition has begun....MGC

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 14:45 UTC

[Evil Jeremy]

thats ex-ingrid