Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET posted

#281 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:43 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
LaBreeze wrote:I know the answer to my question is "stay alert", but I'm just wondering how concerned should I be with this system? I'm here in southern Vermilion Parish just to the west of Intracoastal City, Louisiana and Vermilion Bay.



Medium. A 6.5 on a scale of 1 to 10.


IMHO.



Things like flashlights, bottled water, charcoal for outdoor cooking, canned food- they'll get used eventually, storm or no storm.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#282 Postby storms in NC » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 27.1N 83.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.09.2007 27.1N 83.9W WEAK

12UTC 21.09.2007 29.3N 85.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.09.2007 30.0N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.09.2007 30.1N 88.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.09.2007 30.6N 90.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.09.2007 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

12z UKMET



That would be south west of tampa.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET posted

#283 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:46 pm

What was that from cyclone?
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET posted

#284 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:46 pm

I think 93L forms in the off the SW Florida coast rendering all of these models runs useless. Pressures are starting to fall in the area.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#285 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:47 pm

storms in NC wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 27.1N 83.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.09.2007 27.1N 83.9W WEAK

12UTC 21.09.2007 29.3N 85.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.09.2007 30.0N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.09.2007 30.1N 88.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.09.2007 30.6N 90.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.09.2007 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

12z UKMET



That would be south west of tampa.



The "key" word there is weak.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET posted

#286 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:48 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:What was that from cyclone?


12z UKMET
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET posted

#287 Postby storms in NC » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:52 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:I think 93L forms in the off the SW Florida coast rendering all of these models runs useless. Pressures are starting to fall in the area.


Pressures are not falling much if any.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KAPF.html
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET posted

#288 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:57 pm

storms in NC wrote:
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:I think 93L forms in the off the SW Florida coast rendering all of these models runs useless. Pressures are starting to fall in the area.


Pressures are not falling much if any.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KAPF.html


It would take awhile to see pressures fall significantly at the surface when the low is working it's way down from the upper levels.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET posted

#289 Postby MGC » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:12 pm

My money is on the ULL working its way down to the surface. An such an event is rare in the GOM. I would not be surprised if this turns out to be a big bust, kinda like the big blizzard that was going to hit the EC several winters ago. Local TV has been all over this since yesterday worrying about something that don't exist yet. I'll start worring when a surface low forms. I just don't trust the models.....MGC
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET posted

#290 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:13 pm

12z NOGAPS

NOGAPS starts where the upper low is now,but is not a very strong system as it tracks towards the texas coast.

Now lets wait and see what the 12z EURO has.
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attallaman

Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET posted

#291 Postby attallaman » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:15 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
LaBreeze wrote:I know the answer to my question is "stay alert", but I'm just wondering how concerned should I be with this system? I'm here in southern Vermilion Parish just to the west of Intracoastal City, Louisiana and Vermilion Bay.



Medium. A 6.5 on a scale of 1 to 10.


IMHO.
What would your rating of a concern level be for anywhere along the Mississippi Gulf Coast? More than or less than any Louisiana threat at the moment?
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Re: 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET,NOGAPS posted

#292 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:19 pm

12Z UKMET...

Image

12Z GFS..

Image

12Z GFDL...

Image
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET posted

#293 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z NOGAPS

NOGAPS starts where the upper low is now,but is not a very strong system as it tracks towards the texas coast.

Now lets wait and see what the 12z EURO has.


The NOGAPS 12z run looks much like the 0z run.
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Re: 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET,NOGAPS posted

#294 Postby LaBreeze » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:27 pm

Thanks for the input Ed. I've been prepared with water, batteries, etc. since before the season started. I've been in quite a number of them - lost my sister in Audrey, lost my roof and garage in Lili, lost my entire house completely in Rita, and rode out many more in between all of these as well. I do appreciate the answer :)
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Re: 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET,NOGAPS posted

#295 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:30 pm

If Euro stays with Texas....then we have sets of models one way and the E...If the E shifts east, then you can bet that's the likely scenario this close out.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET,NOGAPS posted

#296 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:35 pm

LaBreeze wrote:Thanks for the input Ed. I've been prepared with water, batteries, etc. since before the season started. I've been in quite a number of them - lost my sister in Audrey, lost my roof and garage in Lili, lost my entire house completely in Rita, and rode out many more in between all of these as well. I do appreciate the answer :)


Rita killed our electricity less than a day, uprooted mi suegra's avocado tree, knocked down a few fences, a couple of tree branches. But the big panic, with stores out of water and flashlights, gas stations out of gas, the running around trying to get ready, well, we have the things like water, powdered milk, flashlights and the such already stocked this summer, just in case.
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Re: 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET,NOGAPS posted

#297 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:36 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:If Euro stays with Texas....then we have sets of models one way and the E...If the E shifts east, then you can bet that's the likely scenario this close out.


12Z Euro rolling in now. I have the 00hr data in, but we kind of know what was happening at 12Z today already.
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Re: 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET,NOGAPS posted

#298 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:If Euro stays with Texas....then we have sets of models one way and the E...If the E shifts east, then you can bet that's the likely scenario this close out.


12Z Euro rolling in now. I have the 00hr data in, but we kind of know what was happening at 12Z today already.


Really the only model left showing Texas...let's see if it stays an outlier on this run before I hit the gym and go to Air Force class
Last edited by Ivanhater on Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 93L: Model Runs=12z GFS,CMC,GFDL,UKMET,NOGAPS posted

#299 Postby z-bail » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:40 pm

i believe the center of circulation is just east of cape canaveral. very visible on radar and the pressure has been dropping all day at the 20 mile buoy off of port canaveral. is that correct for the current position?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009
Last edited by z-bail on Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INVEST 93L Model Runs=12z EURO rolling in

#300 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:40 pm

NOGAPS says Freeport, TX.

12Z Euro 24hr map has center near 25N/84W at 12Z Thursday.
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