Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[DESTRUCTION5]

thats ex-ingrid

No.

[cpdaman]

um ex ingrid's circulation (albeit weak) is well north of puerto rico and can be seen on satelite with convection to it's SW

offshore florida is where the action may be,
i assume the word of the season and this system would be................................ P A T I E N C E

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well i think AJC3 has found "waldo"..I sure can see a circualtion now east of melbourne moving WSW.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Stormcenter]

A couple things to note. Whatever is in the GOM right now is
definitely moving and also notice how the dry is eroding any convection forming to the
N and NW of the system. The dry air is our friend.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[wxman57]

Well i think AJC3 has found "waldo"..I sure can see a circualtion now east of melbourne moving WSW.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Looks like a little eddy, but I don't think the center will form way up there. Probably off the SW peninsula.

[Stormcenter]

Well i think AJC3 has found "waldo"..I sure can see a circualtion now east of melbourne moving WSW.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

The problem is the ULL is going to inhibit any significant development if that in fact is a
center trying to form.

[frederic79]

Looking at the WV loops, it appears the ULL is slowly moving off to the west or sw and will soon have less impact on the LLC east of Melbourne.

[chris_fit]

Just checked the radar and there is some spinning off my coast in Melbourne FL!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Kinda came outa no where. Interesting.

[AJC3]

Well i think AJC3 has found "waldo"..I sure can see a circualtion now east of melbourne moving WSW.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

The problem is the ULL is going to inhibit any significant development if that in fact is a
center trying to form.

This isn't going to be a case where the ULL inhibits surface low formation. You'll need to look to where the ULL is enhancing vertical ascent. This is where surface pressures will begin to fall...just like what has been occurring along the east coast.

I am also unsure that the low level vort just outside my window will survive it's trek across the state...however I remember quite well T.S. Leslie's (2000) incipient low level vortex survived a SSE to NNW trek across the peninsula in a similar manner. Re me earlier post....I think there will be a combination of factors leading to eventual low formation offshore southwest Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well i think AJC3 has found "waldo"..I sure can see a circualtion now east of melbourne moving WSW.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Looks like a little eddy, but I don't think the center will form way up there. Probably off the SW peninsula.

You're not just forecasting that because you're a closet college football hater and want an excuse to be at the office Saturday, by any chance?

[stormcrow]

After having read every thing, what is perfectly clear is that nothing is perfectly clear.

[Cyclone1]

That Melbourne eddy is interesting... It looks a bit bigger than just an eddy.

[Zardoz]

[cycloneye]

19/1745 UTC 28.4N 80.2W ST1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD is tracking the feature that Tony has in his analysis.

[z-bail]

the pressure has been dropping all day at the 20 mile buoy just east of port canaveral where the circulation appears to be located.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

[PTrackerLA]

I have no idea what's going on with this thing, as far as I'm concerned you can throw out most of the models because they initialize the low too far south with regards to where the eddy is now located. There's nothing going on offshore of West Palm beach as you can clearly see. Also we have the possibility of the upper level low making it's way down to the surface which would totally throw everything off again.

[Zardoz]

What is going on at 25.5N 84W?

GOM AVN Loop

[wxman57]

Well i think AJC3 has found "waldo"..I sure can see a circualtion now east of melbourne moving WSW.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Looks like a little eddy, but I don't think the center will form way up there. Probably off the SW peninsula.

You're not just forecasting that because you're a closet college football hater and want an excuse to be at the office Saturday, by any chance?

No, I'm an open hater of college football. Is there a game in Florida Saturday? I do expect a center to form SW of Ft. Myers, not near the Cape and not passing over Tampa.

[HURAKAN]

What is going on at 25.5N 84W?

GOM AVN Loop

The ULL. Look at a WV loop.

[k4sdi]

OK, here are the radar loops I made, this is a first try, I hope this works.

Tampa Bay Loop ending 18:34Z



Key West Loop Ending 18:43 Z


I see some hint of a spin from Tampa, but it all but disappears when you switch the view from Key West.

Now, let me see if I can whip one up from Melbourne, that one is impressive.

Edit: Fat Fingerer Strikes Again