Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[CalmBeforeStorm]

NOGAPS says Freeport, TX.

12Z Euro 24hr map has center near 25N/84W at 12Z Thursday.

~~~~~~~~~
I would put more credence in the Euro's solution as well as NOGAPS because they are the only models to intialize at the likely center location.

[wxman57]

i believe the center of circulation is just east of cape canaveral. very visible on radar and the pressure has been dropping all day at the 20 mile buoy off of port canaveral. is that correct for the current position?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

Looks like a small transient vortex. Already appears to be dissipating. Look near the SW peninsula for development.

[wxman57]

New ECMWF has center at 26N/88W at 12Z Friday. Moved 282 degrees at about 9 kts from 12Z Thu position.

[PTrackerLA]

New ECMWF has center at 26N/88W at 12Z Friday. Moved 282 degrees at about 9 kts from 12Z Thu position.

Any indication of strength or if it's purely tropical?

[Ivanhater]

Continues to be an outlier at this point...I wonder when the EURO will join most of the other globals

[Wx_Warrior]

This still concerns me...Not as much because it's not the majority of the others.

[wxman57]

Full track up to landfall is in for ECMWF:

12Z Thu: 25N/84W
12Z Fri: 26N/88W
12Z Sat: 26.5N/92W
12Z Sun: 29N/96W <-- about over Matagorda Bay, mid TX coast.

What makes the Euro different from the GFS is that it holds the ridge strong north of the storm Thu-Sat while the GFS drives the storm straight into the ridge, splitting it in two. Once the GFS takes the center into the ridge to the coast, it builds the ridge to the north and moves the storm westward across south LA.

Which model is correct? GFS hasn't hit one right this year, so my confidence isn't high in it.

[wxman57]

Continues to be an outlier at this point...I wonder when the EURO will join most of the other globals

Or vice-versa, as with Dean & Felix.

[wxman57]

New ECMWF has center at 26N/88W at 12Z Friday. Moved 282 degrees at about 9 kts from 12Z Thu position.

Any indication of strength or if it's purely tropical?

Well, we found that the ECMWF was about 100mb too high with Felix. It says 1011mb for Jerry, so figure 911mb, I guess.

[jhamps10]

Full track up to landfall is in for ECMWF:

12Z Thu: 25N/84W
12Z Fri: 26N/88W
12Z Sat: 26.5N/92W
12Z Sun: 29N/96W <-- about over Matagorda Bay, mid TX coast.

What makes the Euro different from the GFS is that it holds the ridge strong north of the storm Thu-Sat while the GFS drives the storm straight into the ridge, splitting it in two. Once the GFS takes the center into the ridge to the coast, it builds the ridge to the north and moves the storm westward across south LA.

Which model is correct? GFS hasn't hit one right this year, so my confidence isn't high in it.

and EURO has been great in 5 day forecasts, and what would today be..... 5 days out from sunday. So I'll take the EURO solution for 200 Alex

[Wx_Warrior]

The further south this L forms the more West "jerry" will move. GREAT

[Ivanhater]

Full track up to landfall is in for ECMWF:

12Z Thu: 25N/84W
12Z Fri: 26N/88W
12Z Sat: 26.5N/92W
12Z Sun: 29N/96W <-- about over Matagorda Bay, mid TX coast.

What makes the Euro different from the GFS is that it holds the ridge strong north of the storm Thu-Sat while the GFS drives the storm straight into the ridge, splitting it in two. Once the GFS takes the center into the ridge to the coast, it builds the ridge to the north and moves the storm westward across south LA.

Which model is correct? GFS hasn't hit one right this year, so my confidence isn't high in it.

You can make that argument, however I think you need to add gfdl and ukmet that agree with the gfs...Yes I know they run off the gfs but they all have the same solution...As much as I would love to debate the models today...I need to head to the University...Dont have too much fun with the models

[jhamps10]

The further south this L forms the more West "jerry" will move. GREAT

also the further south this forms, the bigger part of the LC it will be in too.

[perk]

Continues to be an outlier at this point...I wonder when the EURO will join most of the other globals

Or when will the globals join the Euro.

[skysummit]

The EURO has performed exceptionally well in the deep tropics. Now, can it perform just as good in the Gulf?

[wxman57]

I made an animation of the 12Z Euro valid 0, 24, 48, 72, and 96 hours and did the same with the 12Z GFS. Plotted are isobars to the nearest 1/2 millibar in purple. The yellow lines are 500mb heights to the nearest 10 meters. Not really a lot of difference, just that the GFS moves the center northwest initially, right into what the GFS predicts will be a weakness in the ridge. Euro sees no such weakness.

I see the NHC just initialized the BAM models way up at 28N/80W. I doubt a center will form up there, but we'll see by tomorrow.

Euro:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/euroanim.gif

GFS:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gfsanim.gif

[AJC3]

i believe the center of circulation is just east of cape canaveral. very visible on radar and the pressure has been dropping all day at the 20 mile buoy off of port canaveral. is that correct for the current position?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

Looks like a small transient vortex. Already appears to be dissipating. Look near the SW peninsula for development.

Nah, It's not dissipating. Produced near TS force gusts in squalls at the cape within the last hour.

[skysummit]

The 18z tropical models have initialized on the swirl east of Canaveral, and never let it get into the gulf.....

[wxman57]

i believe the center of circulation is just east of cape canaveral. very visible on radar and the pressure has been dropping all day at the 20 mile buoy off of port canaveral. is that correct for the current position?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

Looks like a small transient vortex. Already appears to be dissipating. Look near the SW peninsula for development.

Nah, It's not dissipating. Produced near TS force gusts in squalls at the cape within the last hour.

Just a passing thunderstorm. Winds offshore in the area are 5-15 kts. Hardly any pressure gradient across the buoys/ships/coastal obs. There are some winds to 20-25 kts north of the swirl.

[cycloneye]

The 18z tropical models have initialized on the swirl east of Canaveral, and never let it get into the gulf.....

LATCUR = 28.4N LONCUR = 80.1W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 8KT


Yep and moving NNW at 8 kts.