Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

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Derek Ortt

#841 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:02 pm

likely will not see development until Friday out of this system... the convection in the GOM has just spit out an outflow boundary and there is little low-level convergence. Should take a couple of days to see development
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Re: INVEST 93L:Florida:Discussions & Images=5:30 PM TWO Shortly

#842 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:02 pm

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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#843 Postby jwayne » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:03 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:The low forming further south: IE west of Ft Myers, would target Texas. I don't think the L near Melbourne dominates anything. Im sticking with the L near FTM.


The low over south FL has shown up pretty clearly in the wind field over the last couple of hours. This one will be the dominant one and this means a hit further west. Also verifies what the EURO has shown...a low in the Keys by 00z tonight.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... duration=0


AFM: how hard a hit in the western gulf you think? seems that dry air would hinder it quite a bit.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#844 Postby carversteve » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:03 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:The low forming further south: IE west of Ft Myers, would target Texas. I don't think the L near Melbourne dominates anything. Im sticking with the L near FTM.


The low over south FL has shown up pretty clearly in the wind field over the last couple of hours. This one will be the dominant one and this means a hit further west. Also verifies what the EURO has shown...a low in the Keys by 00z tonight.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... duration=0
And if this varifies that it is forming just off the coast now...it would have plenty of gulf and warm water to work with..could get big?
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Re: INVEST 93L:Florida:Discussions & Images=5:30 PM TWO Shortly

#845 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:03 pm

I agree with the lower forming L, which will be the dominant....Im not conceding yet but EURO sure looks like the winner thus far!
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#846 Postby oyster_reef » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:04 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
oyster_reef wrote:Looking at the visible loop and the convection that is building in off the SW coast I wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to TD by 11pm tonight. Key West is already telling us there is a surface west wind.


Nah. Why upgrade something that isn't certain, and is 48 hours from land, at least, when the AC will be there in the morning. I suppose if it was as obvious as all get out, based on ships, buoys and vis satellite, they might pull the trigger on an STD at 10:45 AM EDT before the AC arrives.

Just my opinion.


if the convection continues to build around it... it will be obvious by 11pm.
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jhamps10

Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#847 Postby jhamps10 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:04 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
oyster_reef wrote:Looking at the visible loop and the convection that is building in off the SW coast I wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to TD by 11pm tonight. Key West is already telling us there is a surface west wind.


Nah. Why upgrade something that isn't certain, and is 48 hours from land, at least, when the AC will be there in the morning. I suppose if it was as obvious as all get out, based on ships, buoys and vis satellite, they might pull the trigger on an STD at 10:45 AM EDT before the AC arrives.

Just my opinion.


I got to agree with this, if it wasn't for recon coming in tomorrow, I would go ahead and upgrade to at least an STD, but with recon, I'd wait unless it makes a rapid development over the next few hours. Something to watch though
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Derek Ortt

#848 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:05 pm

depression by 11 tonight? Maybe by 11 p.m. Friday. This si currently light years away from TD status
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: INVEST 93L:Florida:Discussions & Images=5:30 PM TWO Shortly

#849 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:06 pm

Not usre if outflow boundaries are a bad sign for non-tropical lows or not, but the big thunderstorm complex West of Florida looks to be barfing one out.
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jhamps10

Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#850 Postby jhamps10 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:07 pm

carversteve wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:The low forming further south: IE west of Ft Myers, would target Texas. I don't think the L near Melbourne dominates anything. Im sticking with the L near FTM.


The low over south FL has shown up pretty clearly in the wind field over the last couple of hours. This one will be the dominant one and this means a hit further west. Also verifies what the EURO has shown...a low in the Keys by 00z tonight.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... duration=0
And if this varifies that it is forming just off the coast now...it would have plenty of gulf and warm water to work with..could get big?


well, as we've learned with previous storms this year, it seems that this year is a year of rapid development storms from TD to hurricane in less than 24 hours. Will it get big? That is the $30,000,000 question. I think cat 1 at least, maybe cat 2 for now, but if it goes tropical sooner than we have planned, it very well could become a major, we just don't know right now.
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Re:

#851 Postby Cyclone1 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:07 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:depression by 11 tonight? Maybe by 11 p.m. Friday. This si currently light years away from TD status


I agree, there's nothing really impressive with this system that isn't moving inland over Florida.

My eyes are on ex-Ingrid right now.

For the record, a light year is a measurement of distance, not time. :wink:
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caneman

Re: INVEST 93L:Florida:Discussions & Images=5:30 PM TWO Shortly

#852 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:08 pm

Whoa, pressures dropping 29.80 at Venice bouy. I think we have have our LLC. Will be here off the West coast.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=VENF1
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Re: INVEST 93L:Florida:Discussions & Images=5:30 PM TWO Shortly

#853 Postby Duddy » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:10 pm

jsu to make sure I'm looking at the same thing you guys are, are you all saying the dominant LLC may be forming at about 83W 26N?
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Re: INVEST 93L:Florida:Discussions & Images=5:30 PM TWO Shortly

#854 Postby jasons2k » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:10 pm

This email just came from our work operations center. We use ImpactWeather here in Houston for our weather needs. I CANNOT verify the content of this email, it surpised me what I saw it, this is just what it says:

Background:

Tropical Disturbance 50 has organized about 30 miles west of Ft. Myers, Fla., and is expected to become a tropical depression, most likely on Thursday afternoon, Sept. 20.

The system is expected to steer on a west to west-northwest track, and then turn northwest, taking it into the mid-Louisiana coast on Saturday afternoon or evening. However, the storm could move on shore as far west as the mid-Texas coast or as far east as the Mississippi coast.

Impact:

Locations along the Gulf of Mexico coast from Matagorda Bay, Texas, to Destin, Fla., have a potential for hurricane-force wind-gusts within the next six (6) days. This storm could begin to impact the Destin to southeast Louisiana coast as early as Friday – or the southwest Louisiana or mid-to-upper Texas coast as soon as Saturday.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#855 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:11 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:depression by 11 tonight? Maybe by 11 p.m. Friday. This si currently light years away from TD status


I could see an STD if recon finds anything interesting, maybe even a STS, at the 4:45 pm EDT issuance time tomorrow. An STD or STS, even for a mostly non-tropical low, would allow watches for the Lousiana and Mississippi Coasts a little more than 36 hours before the weather might start going downhill.
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Re: Re:

#856 Postby Duddy » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:17 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:depression by 11 tonight? Maybe by 11 p.m. Friday. This si currently light years away from TD status


I could see an STD if recon finds anything interesting, maybe even a STS, at the 4:45 pm EDT issuance time tomorrow. An STD or STS, even for a mostly non-tropical low, would allow watches for the Lousiana and Mississippi Coasts a little more than 36 hours before the weather might start going downhill.


But I thought you guys were saying that some of the models were initializing the center too far North and therefore was taking it in the Mid Northern Gulf Coast, but that the center is now forming further South, meaning that it would be a Texas storm?
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Re: INVEST 93L:Florida:Discussions & Images=5:30 PM TWO Shortly

#857 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:18 pm

Some kind of surface spiral going into Canaveral on visible loop. Whether vortex or not.
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#858 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:19 pm

What is scary: even this lowly Invest is enough to raise oil prices...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070919/oil_prices.html?.v=14
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Re: INVEST 93L:Florida:Discussions & Images=5:30 PM TWO Shortly

#859 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:20 pm

Yes...lower L would mean a more western track (IE: Freeport, TX -Lafayette, La)
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Re:

#860 Postby BigA » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:22 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What is scary: even this lowly Invest is enough to raise oil prices...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070919/oil_prices.html?.v=14


I wonder if the NHC, if they were unscrupulous and had something to gain, could change their forecasts to manipulate the oil market.

I DO NOT believe the above statement one iota! I believe in the goodness of the NHC. I am just mentioning that tropical weather has an awful lot of influence on oil prices.
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