Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[baygirl_1]

Excerpt from NWS Mobile AFD:
LONG TERM: FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BELIEVE GULF LOW
WILL LIKELY BECOME TROPICAL OR WARM CORE IN NATURE...LATE THU OR
EARLY FRI...GENERALLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA OR
ALABAMA COAST. LATEST GFS AND NAM KEEP THIS SYSTEM ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST TRACK...MOVING INLAND NEAR THE LA/MS BORDER. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THE TRACK. FOR FRI EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGH POPS BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON SAT. AS A RESULT RAINFALL TOTALS FRI THROUGH SAT COULD
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL ZONES WITHIN
THE CWFA. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BUILD FROM THE NE...VEERING TO THE SE
THAN S LATER IN THE DAY. AS FOR THE SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS SYSTEM DUE TO ITS HYBRID CHARACTER INITIALLY
BELIEVE THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
QUADS. ANYHOW PEOPLE LIVING WITHIN 100 MI FROM THE COAST SHOULD TAKE
THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS NOW DUE TO THIS TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
AFFECTING THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /32

Okay, that part that I put in bold--- what are we supposed to be preparing for? I read this on the NWS website and a red flag went up then. So, should we be preparing for heavy rains? Or for a upper end tropical storm/hurricane (i.e. moving outside stuff)? I'm concerned here because I'm currently sporting a walking boot due to an ankle injury and DH is heading to the game with our oldest this weekend. That leaves me unable to do any lifting and taking care of our youngest. I'm just wondering if I need to have him take care of things tomorrow evening.

[MGC]

Well, if anything does develope it is going to be a couple of days. Currently the upper enviroment is hostile east of Florida. There is a weak low off the Cape but it will be moving inland soon and will likely dissipate before emerging into the GOM. The other option is the ULL working its way down to the surface. Typically this transition takes days to happen and to my recollection has never occured in the GOM. With the recent outflow boundries off of Fla west coast it is obvious that there is no surface circulation there yet. I am almost split 50/50 on this being a model bust non event.....MGC

[AJC3]

Well, if anything does develope it is going to be a couple of days. Currently the upper enviroment is hostile east of Florida. There is a weak low off the Cape but it will be moving inland soon and will likely dissipate before emerging into the GOM. The other option is the ULL working its way down to the surface. Typically this transition takes days to happen and to my recollection has never occured in the GOM. With the recent outflow boundries off of Fla west coast it is obvious that there is no surface circulation there yet. I am almost split 50/50 on this being a model bust non event.....MGC

The ULL is unlikely to simply "drill down" to the surface per se. What is much more likely to happen instead is for the low to create strong convection and induce surface pressure falls to it's east via strong UL divergence/forced ascent, just like it's been doing for two days. The big question is when and where in the GOMEX consolidation takes place.

[marcane_1973]

Invest 93L will be lucky to be a TD by Friday 11 p.m. What a disorganized mess. I wouldn't be surprised if this does not develop at all and ends up another all bark no bite once again for the hundreth time in 2007.

[Dean4Storms]

yea, I don't think we are going to see the ULL work down to the surface here, I think we'll see a sheared surface low develop to the east of the ULL and really struggle to deepen and get stacked. However with the ridge/pressure gradient we could see some strong winds on the east and especially northern fringes of this surface low which could foster a strong TS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The tropical wave energy is starting to move into the upper low west of Naples right now. You can see that clearly as convection starts forming over the ULL...It is showing signs of a "LLC" forming at the lower levels to, even so broad. I do expect a tropical cyclone to form, maybe only a weak system but a tropical cyclone at that. I remember Barry 2001 formed from a ULL in the keys that took in a wave moving in to its area...I also have some interest in the energy forming off the coast of GA/SC...Could form into a nice little system as it moves out to sea. Unless it forms some cold convection and quickscat can catch a nice LLC I don't expect the nhc upgrade it.

I expect the LLC over the eastern gulf of mexico to slowly move to the surface, and become more defined as convection forms over it. A westward track should be expected afterwards.

[jhamps10]

18z GFS STILL latching on the Cape Canaveral low, landfall in Nola area in 72-78 hours.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS STILL latching on the Cape Canaveral low, landfall in Nola area in 72-78 hours.

Ugh No it doesnt...look at 12 hours..develops the low SW of Florida

[Dean4Storms]

What does anyone make of the 12z GFS developing a second more deeper low in the Yucatan channel and bringing it northward early next week?


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

[Nimbus]

This may turn out to be a good spot to watch from.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Surface winds are still East of due north. If a surface low gets going and passes to the north we should see the pressures plunge and the winds pick up with a component from the west.

[jhamps10]

Thread for the SW CARIB, that goes into the yucatan channel on 18z gfs:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98120

[stormcrow]

If 93L was/ is the LLC on the east coast of Fl and if the ULL develops into TS or STS why wouldn't this become 94L

[tigergirl]

Yeah saw and don't like it!!!!!

We don't like the 1 -2 punch!!

[HURAKAN]

So many "I think" I have read already that I don't know what to think!!

[CrazyC83]

Yeah saw and don't like it!!!!!

We don't like the 1 -2 punch!!

1-2-3 punch with Ingrid out there...

[JonathanBelles]

Yeah saw and don't like it!!!!!

We don't like the 1 -2 punch!!

1-2-3 punch with Ingrid out there...

1-2-3 punches are not fun, been there done that. I do think that the rest of the month may be more active than now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[jaxfladude]

So many "I think" I have read already that I don't know what to think!!

Wow NE FLA is wet!!
Thank goodness is was not a system to fear....prayers for those on the Gulf Coast if something does develop...

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

So many "I think" I have read already that I don't know what to think!!

Wow NE FLA is wet!!
Thank goodness is was not a system to fear....prayers for those on the Gulf Coast if something does develop...

That looks like (S)TD10 with the center over the Gulf...