Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[wiggles]

I truly would love to know what that is below 93L. Where is it coming from?

[Ivanhater]

New Orleans yet again...Still believe it latched to the EC low

read my post above..it did but lost it and latched on to the one sw of Florida in 12 hr

[jhamps10]

I truly would love to know what that is below 93L. Where is it coming from?

NW Caribbean.

[jhamps10]

New Orleans yet again...Still believe it latched to the EC low

read my post above..it did but lost it and latched on to the one sw of Florida in 12 hr

you sure bout that?

sorry IMO, any run that latches on to the EC low is suspect right now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

plus any low that moves a storm NW from the SW coast of FL to New Orleans under a ridge is suspect too. I think a general W or WNW motion (as seen with the EURO) is more likely. Even Derek Ortt's blog said that if the storm forms south of Tampa, it will likely hit Texas.

[Ivanhater]

New Orleans yet again...Still believe it latched to the EC low

read my post above..it did but lost it and latched on to the one sw of Florida in 12 hr

you sure bout that?

sorry IMO, any run that latches on to the EC low is suspect right now.

Lol..Im positive...look at GFS and NAM at 12 hours...they both have the low SW of Florida and STILL move it northwest...not my opinion..just what the runs have

[Wx_Warrior]

My bro (kfdm pro met) said it latched but heck who knows? LOL

[skysummit]

plus any low that moves a storm NW from the SW coast of FL to New Orleans under a ridge is suspect too. I think a general W or WNW motion (as seen with the EURO) is more likely. Even Derek Ortt's blog said that if the storm forms south of Tampa, it will likely hit Texas.

Yea, but it's not moving it north into a ridge. On this run, just like the last few, the GFS has a ridge over Texas. That's why it's not sending it west. The EURO is seeing the opposite. One will be right, but which one?

The one good thing about this run is shear looks to really pick up as it's nearing the coast line.

[Dean4Storms]

Exactly, the GFS has the ridge back over TX, the EURO has it moving eastward thus sending it back toward TX.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmm..

Does anyone notice that after the GFS shows the system hitting NOLA that it suddenly shoots it back to the south?

72 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

78 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

Then, after heading south it goes on to move it into the TX/LA border area...

84 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

Pretty strange, IMO.

[Wx_Warrior]

You beat me to the post...Once on the TX/LA border its gone on 9/24

[jhamps10]

Hmm..

Does anyone notice that after the GFS shows the system hitting NOLA that it suddenly shoots it back to the south?

72 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

78 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

Then, after heading south it goes on to move it into the TX/LA border area...

84 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

Pretty strange, IMO.

actually EWG, it does not move it back south, or if it does, it aien't much. What you are most likely referring to is the low, that is coming out of the NW Carribean, but at 84, 93L is at about the same latitude as the 72 hour image.

[skysummit]

It's not shooting it back to the south. That's another low coming up from the northwestern Caribbean that heads north.

[skysummit]

18z GFDL.....


718
WHXX04 KWBC 192320
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 27.9 80.2 345./ 8.0
6 28.0 80.4 308./ 2.2
12 28.8 81.1 317./ 9.6

STORM DISSIPATED AT 12 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFDL kills the system b/c it initializes the low currently near the east coast of Florida. If the storm forms SW of Florida though, then we will be looking at a whole different situation.

[jhamps10]

18z GFDL.....


718
WHXX04 KWBC 192320
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 27.9 80.2 345./ 8.0
6 28.0 80.4 308./ 2.2
12 28.8 81.1 317./ 9.6

STORM DISSIPATED AT 12 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

well, that was a waste of a run.

[Wx_Warrior]

Do you know that GFDL losses it for that reason or was shear involved?

[PTPatrick]

IMHO...GFS didnt "latch" onto the EC low...it simply initialized that it was there...which it was. The GFS then shows the low off southwest FL in 12 hours which it would appear will be correct. So I dont think GFS is as far out to lunch as some people claim. Sure this could be a texas hit but who knows.

Also, could the reason GFDL dissapates it be because it actually was run on the EC low...which is now dissapated to give way to the SW coast low...perhaps the GFDL needs to see the right low before it can get a handle. I think the GFDL is rather specific to what it is supposed to be run on and in all fairness it probably initialized the first low...

[skysummit]

Do you know that GFDL losses it for that reason or was shear involved?

Because it initialized the wrong low. It initialized the one off the east coast. The primary low will be off the southwest coast. Once the models initialize it, I suspect them to shift west a bit to the northern Texas coast and southwest - southcentral Louisiana.

[PTPatrick]

ITs true the GFDL is crap because it initialized the wrong low... BUT the GFS is not. It does see the right low. So, nothing constitutes a big shift. I think a lot of people are saying boo to the GFS when it really for the short term is doing better than Euro...because the EURO did NOT see the first low.