Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Wx_Warrior]

js....The SW off florida is the one to watch...most have established that.

af: i misunderstood it then..i thought you were saying it wouldn't make it..my bad

[PTrackerLA]

FWIW, convection has been steadily increasing right where the 18z depicts a surface low in 12 hours off Ft. Myers.

[Air Force Met]

For track, I'm sticking with the Euro for now as the GFS has a habit of breaking down ridges early. For now that's my call & I'm sticking to it. Hopefully I won't go down in flames with JB, LC, & the others.

I agree. After the season the Euro has had...not only here but in the WestPac...I'm very hesitant to go against it. Perhaps a GFS/Euro blend with more weight to the EURO. The NOGAPS has also had a decent year and has pulled some stunners...and it is going for TX.

Plus...if you actually put the low off the SW Florida coast...and move all the other models to that location and extrapolate...they aren't that far off from the Euro and Nogaps. The Euro and NOGAPS hit the solution at SETX because they start the low off the SW coast of Florida. The other models are so far east because they start the low too far north and east...which I think is the wrong spot...but if you move their initial position to SW FL...their track is into SE TX too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AFM, what is your prediction on max intensity of this system right now? Is there any chance that this could still reach hurricane status at some point? Basically..how worried should we be along the SE Texas and SW Louisiana coastline?

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm not a nogaps or cmc fan...but i do think a Freeport-NOLA cone.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, what is your prediction on max intensity of this system right now? Is there any chance that this could still reach hurricane status at some point? Basically..how worried should we be along the SE Texas and SW Louisiana coastline?

Of course there is a chance. Upper level wind forecasts are notoriously bad. Claudette strengthened quickly after being sheared like this most of her life. The upper low moved south. Anything is possible.

[drezee]

There is an eddy of LLC over Titusville like right over my house! Pressure is down to 1004.7mb!

[caneman]

I'm not sure that this will really do anything with this ULL/TUTT sticking around. It has been unusually cool here for the last few days. Almost like end of Oct/Nov weather. I Frank2 has posted before that this can be a season killer. I'm not going to go that far but I think it will certainly help lower the heat content of the water on both coast perhaps heling to prevent a significant major for East or West coast Florida. I know my pool is not nearly as deep as the ocean but it has dropped from 86 to 80 for the last few days. And as I believe AFM said these features/TUTTs can stick around for awhile. So, not calling for the end of the season but it may not finish with the big bang that I and others thought.

[drezee]

TS force sustained winds on FL coast.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SAUF1

[NateFLA]

My watch was indicating falling pressure earlier, but now says it is steady around 1009mb.

This in Gainesville.

[jhamps10]

TS force sustained winds on FL coast.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SAUF1

and almost TS winds for the past hour it looks like too.

[plazaglass]

Well, I see on the Weather Channel that Jim Cantore is reporting live right now about 9 blocks from my house. Wonder if I should try to kayak down the street and try to go see him. The weather in the last couple of hours reminds me of when Jeanne and Frances were in the region.

[jhamps10]

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/5822/93ljerrythoughteh8.png

[hicksta]

l really dont understand how you are gonna suggest a cone that small when this storm doesnt even have a well defined center. Everyone from texas to florida needs to keep an eye on this storm.

[Emmett_Brown]

Gusty rain bands here in NE FL as the EC FL low passes to our south...

[Wx_Warrior]

Based on the info out there, great job on the image!

[miamicanes177]

...And I have yet to look at one upper level chart (not a SHIPS output...not a SHEAR chart...not a whatever...)...one 200mb forecast from any model in the past day or so that shows any upper level pattern that is very favorable for the kind of deepening some on here are panicking over. Things looked much different earlier in the week. Now...the upper low tracks west with the system...rather than moving south and building a ridge over the top of it.

As I said earlier...many here...I think...expected this upper low to be gone already...and as you and I know...it doesn't work that way. These cold cores just don't disappear over night.

For those of you who doubt this...go look at Ingrid. I told you all last week it would still be dealing with that upper level low through mid-week. These buggers are persistent. That's why a few well placed TUTTS can kill a season.

AFM, what is your official forecast that your putting out? I know you said yesterday you expected it to be sheared, but that you believed the shear would lessen over the w-rn GOM or something. I don't believe I've seen you forecast for the final landfall position and intensity, so this is an opportunity to clarify what your forecasting so we can know.

[maxx9512]

Just a quick question. When looking at the water vater images, the upper levels are what I am seeing in these images is that correct?
At night I find them the easier images to see what is happening. I'm I right in reguardes to this?
Help from someone who can answer this is very appreicated. Thanks

[caneman]

Yes, that is upper level. Not the place to look for a low level circ. Good to look at that for Upper Lvevel winds which in most cases destroy cyclones but in some cases enhances them. Pretty to look at but won't show a low level circ.

[tolakram]

Buoy Data:



Looking at 42014:



2 hours old obs, at least at posting time, but good drop since I last looked.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42014

Hah, and it updated as I posted.