Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[jhamps10]

l really dont understand how you are gonna suggest a cone that small when this storm doesnt even have a well defined center. Everyone from texas to florida needs to keep an eye on this storm.

I was tempted to move the cone all the way to Florida, don't get me wrong but the more I looked at the models and the satellite images, it would have to make a sharp turn real quick to hit florida, and i just do not see that happening.

[Cape Verde]

Does Ivo off the Mexican coast have an impact on where this system might end up?

[ronjon]

NWS Tampa Bay 8 PM Discussion:

AS FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...CIMSS SHEAR AND SHEAR TENDENCY PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE GULF IS
BECOMING THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION AS OPPOSED TO THE ATLANTIC. GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL PICK UP ON THIS CHANGE AND NOW DEVELOP A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW OFF OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...COULD SEE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FORTUNATELY...SHOULD THIS LOW DEVELOP OUR AREA WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT
SUSTAINED-WIND WISE...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINS. ALREADY SEEING SOME
OF THE LATTER IN SOUTH LEE COUNTY...WHERE STORMS HAVE DE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND ARE STATIONARY. SO FAR RADAR IS
ESTIMATING 2-3 INCHES THERE AND WE HAVE AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY ISSUED.

[Air Force Met]

...And I have yet to look at one upper level chart (not a SHIPS output...not a SHEAR chart...not a whatever...)...one 200mb forecast from any model in the past day or so that shows any upper level pattern that is very favorable for the kind of deepening some on here are panicking over. Things looked much different earlier in the week. Now...the upper low tracks west with the system...rather than moving south and building a ridge over the top of it.

As I said earlier...many here...I think...expected this upper low to be gone already...and as you and I know...it doesn't work that way. These cold cores just don't disappear over night.

For those of you who doubt this...go look at Ingrid. I told you all last week it would still be dealing with that upper level low through mid-week. These buggers are persistent. That's why a few well placed TUTTS can kill a season.

AFM, what is your official forecast that your putting out? I know you said yesterday you expected it to be sheared, but that you believed the shear would lessen over the w-rn GOM or something. I don't believe I've seen you forecast for the final landfall position and intensity, so this is an opportunity to clarify what your forecasting so we can know.

Based on the data that is available right now...I would say a strong TS/maybe Cat 1 making landfall along the upper Texas Coast or possibly SW Louisiana...on Sunday. This is based on 1) A sfc low consolidating off the SW coast of FL and 2) The upper low moving to the west of the sfc low, but not far enough away to be in a favorable position which is conducive for steady strengthening. All the models are keeping the upper low in the vicinity of the sfc low now...whereas in previous days they moved it to the south which vented the system rather favorably. Depending on the model, there is b/w 15 and 40 kts of southerly winds over the sfc low.

Two things impact this forecast: Where the sfc low finally consolidates and what the upper low does. These two things severely impact both the track and intensity forecast...and nobody can tell you the answer to these questions...except God.

[maxx9512]

OK then since water vapor is upper level, what would be best at night for viewing and trying to see a circulation. I know it is hard at night to see it with no visables. An infrared or an enhanced ir, jsl or what? Or is it best done with observations if availlble. any suggestions?

[Air Force Met]

OK then since water vapor is upper level, what would be best at night for viewing and trying to see a circulation. I know it is hard at night to see it with no visables. An infrared or an enhanced ir, jsl or what? Or is it best done with observations if availlble. any suggestions?

Its best done at night with sfc obs for this particular system. There are plenty of sfc obs around...both on and off shore:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... duration=0

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/atl-seusplot.php

But...if you want to look at sat at night for sfc features...look at IR2...SWIR (shortwave IR).

[caneman]

Best would be radar then assuming it is close to land. YOu could use IR but really only on fairly well defined system. Other option is Quikscat and buoys.

[maxx9512]

Thanks for the links AF

[Air Force Met]

Best would be radar then assuming it is close to land. YOu could use IR but really only on fairly well defined system. Other option is Quikscat.

And assuming you have a good circulation that is stacked. It wouldn't work in this case because the sfc features aren't stacked with the upper levels. Radar would see different levels at different ranges and if the "center" is 90 miles away...then you are looking 10000 feet up...which wouldn't be your sfc center.

[deltadog03]

Is that the center that everyone has been aluding to all day? Or what we might think is the center or just a vortex eddy??

[ronjon]

Ok here's my take. Lowest surface pressure as of 8 PM is JFK Space Center at 29.75 inches. The LLC is clearly evident moving W-NW inland from JFK. Pressure is falling at Orlando (29.79 in) and Ocala. Air pressure along the SW FL coast is rising with Naples and Ft Myers at 29.80 inches. I think this LLC is going to rotate west and then southwest from its current position and be located somewhere off the SW coast of FL anywhere from Ft Myers to Tampa tomorrow morning. It will then strengthen and acquire tropical characteristics in the GOM.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/OneKM.aspx?location=USFL0481&animate=true&enlarge=true

[jeff]

AFM,

Can you given me a call on my per. cell. I have a TPC/HPC coord. points question

[jhamps10]

humm, TPC/NHC must have been watching my map for option 2:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

that is important to see as that means that they are leaning towards the GFS ensamble/EURO blend, which would be right over Galvestion/Houston.

[CrazyC83]

20/ 15 UTC 28.4N 80.7W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Wx_Warrior]

I posted a TPC/NHC yesterday that noted the same thing...your link is dead tho

[Air Force Met]

AFM,

Can you given me a call on my per. cell. I have a TPC/HPC coord. points question

Check your PM...

[jhamps10]

I posted a TPC/NHC yesterday that noted the same thing...your link is dead tho

sorry, this should work:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[Sean in New Orleans]

Carl Arredondo said a system was forming just off of SW Florida tonight on Channel 4 in New Orleans. Says as soon as the system forms, the models will have something to grip, but, for now, they don't know what to do. There is a general feeling around here that New Orleans will be under tropical storm conditions or Cat. 1 hurricane conditions on Saturday and it's pretty clear that officials are preparing and saying all of the general stuff. We do know that the city WILL NOT be evacuated, but, they are showing concern for 7,000 people in the City of New Orleans that still live in FEMA trailors and not sound homes.

[Wx_Warrior]

They were hinting that yesterday...can't find my post...it was text form tho.

[Air Force Met]

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/data/t-01/at ... alysis.png

This image shows where the main circulation is...and that the LLC over E Ctl FL is an eddy....

OK...not working well...

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/atl-seusplot.php


click...Wind/MSLP Analysis for 00Z