Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[Extremeweatherguy]

The Tropical suite tonight keeps iniciating the low more north.However,the pressure is now down to 1007 mbs.

That makes little sense, because I looked and it appears to be going south of due west, so it couldn't be going north or north-northwest.

Why does NHC continue to initiate the models on the low further north instead of the one off the sw coast that people keep talking about?

That's what I am wondering. From a future track perspective, wouldn't it be wiser for them to initialize an area SW of Florida instead?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Nogaps says LA now too..

[Wx_Warrior]

Post a link for NOGAPS please!

They have their reasoning hence run after run showing the same thing. We will know a ton this time 2morrow. Until then, let the guesses fly!

[canetracker]

The NHC initilization versus what most of us are seeing is perplexing. Maybe they are being cautious before changing things as usual. Will be watching future model initilizations for sure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nogaps says LA now too..

that is b/c it is initializing the center as being the one near Melbourne...not the one SW of the state. Most of the mets though currently think the Melbourne low WILL NOT be the focus..and because of this, all the models initialized up there can essentially be thrown out.

[cycloneye]

Destruction5,NOGAPS was Central Texas coast bound at the 12z run.The new run comes around 1:00 AM.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB's latest headline reads as follows...

"CENTER MOVES INLAND NEAR MELBOURNE, REFORMATION STARTING OVER THE GULF."

Even he is onboard in saying that the Melbourne LLC is toast.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Post a link for NOGAPS please!

They have their reasoning hence run after run showing the same thing. We will know a ton this time 2morrow. Until then, let the guesses fly!

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_93.gif

Light blue man..

[Wx_Warrior]

Wait wait...NOGAPS and EURO were the only 2 outliers up until this point...NOGAPS has had Texas from the start.

[Wx_Warrior]

THANKS!

Hows the track treating you?

[Ivanhater]

Wait wait...NOGAPS and EURO were the only 2 outliers up until this point...NOGAPS has had Texas from the start.

Yep, now Euro is the stand alone...

Correction, Im not sure the NOGAPS changed...Im still showing the 12z run

[miamicanes177]

JB's latest headline reads as follows...

"CENTER MOVES INLAND NEAR MELBOURNE, REFORMATION STARTING OVER THE GULF."

Even he is onboard in saying that the Melbourne LLC is toast.

And there is no way that weak little LLC this thing had would be able to survive the passage over florida. It is only reasonable to go with the low forming to the SW over WATER. NHC should start initializing the position correctly on the next run as I have faith in them. That low will most certainly dissipate over land and allow the sw low to dominate. I agree with Joe Bastardi.

[DESTRUCTION5]

THANKS!

Hows the track treating you?

Betting Penn National as i type..LOL

Been real good last few weeks..

[HollynLA]

Nogaps says LA now too..

that is b/c it is initializing the center as being the one near Melbourne...not the one SW of the state. Most of the mets though currently think the Melbourne low WILL NOT be the focus..and because of this, all the models initialized up there can essentially be thrown out.

Call me psychic, but I knew you would disagree with it...........

[wiggles]

Dr Lyons thinks it will and merge with the other one tomorrow

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wait wait...NOGAPS and EURO were the only 2 outliers up until this point...NOGAPS has had Texas from the start.

Yep, now Euro is the stand alone...

Correction, Im not sure the NOGAPS changed...Im still showing the 12z run

I see 18z there IH..

[HollynLA]

Dr Lyons thinks it will and merge with the other one tomorrow

which I think is what the GFS is showing.

[Ivanhater]

People...stop saying just because they have the "wrong" low, they should be thrown out...GFS actually develops the low off SW Florida and STILL moves it NW...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nogaps says LA now too..

that is b/c it is initializing the center as being the one near Melbourne...not the one SW of the state. Most of the mets though currently think the Melbourne low WILL NOT be the focus..and because of this, all the models initialized up there can essentially be thrown out.

Call me psychic, but I knew you would disagree with it...........

Actually HollynLA, I am just looking at the facts. And the facts are this...

-The models are initialized on the wrong area. Most of the mets aknowledge this and think the storm will actually form SW of Florida NOT near Melbourne.

-If the models are initialized too far north to begin with, then we can assume that their tracks are also too far north.

-A 500mb ridge is building over the SE U.S. and because of this, a NW or NNW turn seems highly unlikely to me. JB also confirms this in his latest post saying it seems very unrealistic.

-Many of the predictions from mets I have seen (including JB and AFM) call for the most likely final hit being somewhere along the upper Texas or SW Louisiana coasts...not New Orleans.

And there you have it. I am disagreeing for all the right reasons. Models that are initialized wrong and disagreed with by the mets are not to be trusted. Personally, I expect a huge shift back west in the models tomorrow when/if a new location is initialized as the "center" SW of Florida. New Orleans is still possible, but I personally think it is the far east scenario. JMO.

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS is off of the wrong low. The globals are fine. BAMM is not