Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Sanibel]

Well after telling people it was up there by Orlando and being ignored it is nice to see NHC initialize it right on my mark. Thanks.

[jhamps10]

guys, lets talk about evacs for a second, I've been lurking over on the channel 11 out of houston blogs, and someone just made a great point.....

Should this become more than humberto, and track along the Galveston/Houston area, there will not be a lot of time at ALL to evacuate, even those who need to evacuate. I got a sick feeling about this, that should it effect houston, since we're talking what a Sunday landfall should it go towards houston, or texas that's not going to leave time at all, since I doubt we see anything strong enough that would even need evacuations other than the low areas, for flooding until at least Friday at the earliest, so to our friends along the coast, listen up.

I'd go ahead and get prepared NOW to evacuate, if you live in an area that would have to evacuate for a Cat 3 hurricane. It's always said that it's always better to prepare and not need to act, than to act and not be prepared at all.

[HURAKAN]

Well after telling people it was up there by Orlando and being ignored it is nice to see NHC initialize it right on my mark. Thanks.

Then, congratulations.

Now lets see if it can make it to the GOM to develop.

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html Look how this dry air is being sucked into this thing. This is definitely an inhibitive factor

At this point there's nothing tropical about it. Looks like an ull we've seen in the nw atlantic or something. That low has to detach from the ull and without high pressure aloft to feed it.... Nothing tonight maybe tomorrow or friday. It's a real good thing the sst's aren't the only factor in development or we'd all be in trouble. Conditions have to come together a whole list of them. Right now there is alot working against it. But I still think it's the only game in town and what the hey better than nothing. Sanibel, I don't agree with the cape canaveral low being the main feature and I will tell you why. Right now, it's the ull that is bringing the northerly winds not the surface low on the EC. Right now the ULL is in control neither surface low is taken over yet.

[jrbaytown]

Hey guys,

Newbie here...just wanted to say I enjoy reading everyone's posts. I've always been interested in weather, especially hurricanes since I live on the Texas coast, so it's great to see so many different viewpoints, especially on this crazy thing.

I'm addicted to this site now! Help!

Have a great night, and for god sakes...get some sleep!!!

--Ross
Baytown, TX

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The LLC over florida is banding from the east side
with storms over FL...this LLC will likely
move across florida and get into the Gulf of Mexico,
and interact with the ULL in a way that allows the
LLC to deepen over the gulf while having convection
ventilated by the ULL but the ULL its motion and effect on the
LLC will determine the rate of intensification.

I want to mention one more thing- Despite the appearance
on water vapor- the LLC over florida is MUCH stronger.
Sanibel confirmed North winds, and if the ULL were
taking over he would on floridas west coast have seen
southerly winds.

I have been making constant weather observations of wind
direction for the past 8 hours, and folks we are getting
NORTH winds on the West Coast of FLorida- That means that the
LLC over land is holding its strenght and may even intensify as
it feeds on the GOM waters approaching the FLorida
west coast from central FLorida, and then moving into the GOM.

IF the ULL were the Dominant feature, the Winds Would be out of
the SSE at 20 with gusts to 35. But right now at my house
the winds have been North at 20-25 mph with 35 mph gusts
at times. But the wind is NORTH.

Of course, the ULL Could take over, but I think some sort
of combination of the ULL's and LLC will occur allowing the
LLC to deepen rapidly once it hits the GOM. Keep in mind,
a ULL development means much slower intensification,
but once this LLC emerges off FLoridas west coast it is already
a warm core LLC from the start and will literally explode.

By the way, SSTs are 89 degrees from tampa bay to the
gulf and all along florida's west coast. That is EXPLOSIVE.
IF the LLC gets out over the gom and deepens, this will be
a LOT stronger than the models are showing.

Just an hour ago a band of rain came through, fueled by
the bands interaction with the hot waters of the EGOM and
Tampa Bay and the wind gusts were surprisingly strong, similar
to Frances, but of course less. 40 mph in gusts easily though.

So my point is, I think the LLC moives off the west coast of florida,
and already being of warm core, deepens explosively, while
moving WSW at first, meaning that the gulf coast could
get a much stronger storm and that anyone thinking
of writing this off is a fool.

Just My Predictions Folks.

[Sanibel]

The banding is unmistakeable. The key is the south curved band over Florida. I'll risk saying that you will see this center become the tropical center over the Gulf right now:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[artist]

look at this loop and tell me whether that is the center, please. We are just on the edge of what seems to be a band from the center I am seeing on radar there.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... b&loop=yes

[Ed Mahmoud]

The original low level center of the disturbance now near Orlando still looks fairly defined on MLB radar. If that holds, Texas is probably safe. I think NHC is thinking that way, based on where models are being initiated.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

look at this loop and tell me whether that is the center, please. We are just on the edge of what seems to be a band from the center I am seeing on radar there.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... b&loop=yes

yes you are in an intense band from the center.

[jhamps10]

The original low level center of the disturbance now near Orlando still looks fairly defined on MLB radar. If that holds, Texas is probably safe. I think NHC is thinking that way, based on where models are being initiated.

not of that heads WSW, that would very well keep Texas in the threat zone.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The original low level center of the disturbance now near Orlando still looks fairly defined on MLB radar. If that holds, Texas is probably safe. I think NHC is thinking that way, based on where models are being initiated.

I would not say that texas is safe by any means. WATCH this LLC for a WSW movement,
because if there is a WSW movement over the peninsula that would
cause the low to emerge South of Tampa and emerge off SW florida-

The Further south this goes the greater the threat to TX/WGOM.

[Wx_Warrior]

No one is safe until we can get some good reads by Thursday night. But take into consideration what he said.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The original low level center of the disturbance now near Orlando still looks fairly defined on MLB radar. If that holds, Texas is probably safe. I think NHC is thinking that way, based on where models are being initiated.

I would not say that texas is safe by any means. WATCH this LLC for a WSW movement,
because if there is a WSW movement over the peninsula that would
cause the low to emerge South of Tampa and emerge off SW florida-

The Further south this goes the greater the threat to TX/WGOM.

Or SW Louisiana....seems this time of the year, these things make strange, abrubt direction changes to the N or even NE.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The original low level center of the disturbance now near Orlando still looks fairly defined on MLB radar. If that holds, Texas is probably safe. I think NHC is thinking that way, based on where models are being initiated.

I would not say that texas is safe by any means. WATCH this LLC for a WSW movement,
because if there is a WSW movement over the peninsula that would
cause the low to emerge South of Tampa and emerge off SW florida-

The Further south this goes the greater the threat to TX/WGOM.

Or SW Louisiana....seems this time of the year, these things make strange, abrubt direction changes to the N or even NE.

Oh yes- Everyone from the Florida panhandle to Texas needs to watch this closely.
The model divergence and uncertainties warrant attention by all gulf residents.

[americanrebel]

Why does it look like that ULL is becoming a tropical system? It has the circulation and getting cut off from the broken front and getting by itself. This is the best looking ULL in the Gulf that is not a tropical system at all. All the sat. views make this look like a tropical storm at the least.

[Wx_Warrior]

I have a small feeling the GFS may start shifting west 2morrow but we shall see.

[jhamps10]

ok current conditions:

Melbourne International Airport 21:53 Light Rain 76 72 88 S 7 29.80
Cocoa / Patrick Air Force Base 21:55 Mostly Cloudy 75 73 94 S 8 29.79
NASA Shuttle Landing Facility 21:55 A Few Clouds 73 72 94 SE 6 29.79
Vero Beach Municipal Airport 21:53 Partly Cloudy 77 73 88 SE 5 29.81
Daytona Beach International Airport 21:53 Mostly Cloudy 75 71 88 NE 7 29.82
Orlando / Sanford Airport 21:53 Light Rain Fog/Mist 74 71 91 N 10 29.78
Ocala Municipal Automatic Weather Observing 21:55 Overcast 70 66 88 N 10 29.86
Leesburg Municipal Airport 21:53 Light Rain Fog/Mist 73 70 90 N 12 29.83
Tampa International Airport 21:53 Light Drizzle 74 67 79 N 15 G 24 29.84
Orlando International Airport 21:53 Overcast 74 74 100 NW 10 29.78
Orlando, Kissimmee Municipal Airport 21:46 Overcast 73 72 94 NW 10 29.82
Jacksonville International Airport 21:56 Light Rain Fog/Mist 70 67 90 N 13 29.90
Vero Beach Municipal Airport 21:53 Partly Cloudy 77 73 88 SE 5 29.81
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County Intl Airport 21:53 Partly Cloudy 76 73 91 Calm 29.80
West Palm Beach, Palm Beach International Airport 21:53 A Few Clouds 81 71 72 S 13 29.82

my guess is that the low center is between Kissimmee and Vero Beach somewhere. so I don't know the exact latitude of Those areas, but I believe that is south of tampa?????????

Locals help me out here plz.

[americanrebel]

Also finally the state officials are starting to take this thing seriously, they are watching this system constantly and Shell corp has decided to evacuate 700 non essential employees from the platforms out in the GOM. So this is telling me that it will become something of some concern. Oil companies don't pull people off of platforms for Tropical Storms or Cat 1 hurricanes. The platforms are able withstand large Cat 2 maybe even small Cat 3 with no problem. So they must be able to see something in models that we can't see to make them think this is going to become a major hurricane.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

kissimmee is slightly north of tampa

As you can see- some 30 mph wind velocities
and a center with winds circulating around it
like a true tropical system:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no