Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Sabanic]

Well, there you have it. The low is over central Florida and I might add a farily strong one. Producing near TD conditions. NHC Said interest along North Gulf Coast so looks to me like the NW track is favored. Case closed fow now. Even the mets get em wrong once in awhile

we may get a chance with the ULL down in the S GOM.

Why would you want a chance?

[jhamps10]

Well, there you have it. The low is over central Florida and I might add a farily strong one. Producing near TD conditions. NHC Said interest along North Gulf Coast so looks to me like the NW track is favored. Case closed fow now. Even the mets get em wrong once in awhile

no case not closed at all caneman. case will not be closed at all until we get some recon help tomorrow on this, and see also what low is going to develop.

I have faith in the NHC, but I think it was not the best of them to only say north gulf coast, instead of the NW, north gulf. That will give a lot of people in say Lafayette, Port Arthur, houston a big sense of security that they won't get hit, but we don't know if that's right.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the NHC will change their tune by morning. The low SW of Florida seems to be strengthening while the low near Orlando continues to look worse and worse on the radar.. http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999 ..Now I could be wrong, but I think my post above showing the rapidly dropping pressures SW of the state (which are about the same as the pressures currently under the central FL LCC) is enough factual evidence to back this claim up.

[Portastorm]

Well, there you have it. The low is over central Florida and I might add a farily strong one. Producing near TD conditions. NHC Said interest along North Gulf Coast so looks to me like the NW track is favored. Case closed fow now. Even the mets get em wrong once in awhile

Case closed? What case? There is still no definitive, authoritative analysis of where the actual tropical low (if it forms) will form, no unanimous model consensus ... what are you talking about??!!

[lrak]

Well, there you have it. The low is over central Florida and I might add a farily strong one. Producing near TD conditions. NHC Said interest along North Gulf Coast so looks to me like the NW track is favored. Case closed fow now. Even the mets get em wrong once in awhile

we may get a chance with the ULL down in the S GOM.

Why would you want a chance?

You got a problem with a chance PM me.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is elongated from the northeast to southwest. As time go's by a LLC should start strengthen off the coast of florida. In yes chances are pretty good. The wave info shows the wind field clearly.

[jasons2k]

Hmmm,

"ALL
INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE."

Looks like they're excluding TX Coast (Houston, Freeport, Beaumont, etc.)

I wouldn't read too much into that. The NHC will not mention threatened areas that are days away from impact; they are only mentioning the possible immediate impact areas.

[opera ghost]

What's the possibility of both lows forming or at least maintaining their presence?

[Ivanhater]

[Sabanic]

Hmmm,

"ALL
INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE."

Looks like they're excluding TX Coast (Houston, Freeport, Beaumont, etc.)

I wouldn't read too much into that. The NHC will not mention threatened areas that are days away from impact; they are only mentioning the possible immediate impact areas.

Don't put much into that because they are just mentioning the immediate impact areas? So those areas don't matter? What kind of statement was that?

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, there you have it. The low is over central Florida and I might add a farily strong one. Producing near TD conditions. NHC Said interest along North Gulf Coast so looks to me like the NW track is favored. Case closed fow now. Even the mets get em wrong once in awhile

Gale warning in effect for NE FL costal waters at this time:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shmrn.php?mz=amz452

Granted, the high to the north is causing some of this, but you need low pressure too to get a gradient. Pressure is 1009 mb in St Augustine, which isnt that low, but low enough.

[Sean in New Orleans]

This would be awesome news...thanks for the post. This would entail the system staying in Florida, entirely, for the course of it's life and heading into SE Alabama or SW Georgia....

[rainydaze]

Hi Ross from Baytown on page 50! Welcome to storm 2k.

Guys, I have been following tropical weather online since 2000 and I have been with Storm 2k since it began....and I must say this Florida system is the most complicated storm I've ever seen everyone at Storm 2k try to follow. I am immensely reading everyone's posts and trying to even understand what the heck is going on with this thing.....and, all the while, get this.....it's not even cloudy or raining at my house! haha.

[amawea]

Hey njweather, the upper Texas coast is part of the northern gulf.

[caneman]

Well, there you have it. The low is over central Florida and I might add a farily strong one. Producing near TD conditions. NHC Said interest along North Gulf Coast so looks to me like the NW track is favored. Case closed fow now. Even the mets get em wrong once in awhile

Case closed? What case? There is still no definitive, authoritative analysis of where the actual tropical low (if it forms) will form, no unanimous model consensus ... what are you talking about??!!

Fairly obvious if you read the update. They see the central FLorida low as the dominate one so for now that should end the debate as too which is dominate. Further you could make the case that the North Gulf coast means La to the Panhandle. They seems to be relying on the Nam and GFs solutions. Funny how it seems posters from Texas just don't want to hear this.

[Agua]

we may get a chance with the ULL down in the S GOM.

By all means, have it.

[Sabanic]

Well, there you have it. The low is over central Florida and I might add a farily strong one. Producing near TD conditions. NHC Said interest along North Gulf Coast so looks to me like the NW track is favored. Case closed fow now. Even the mets get em wrong once in awhile

Case closed? What case? There is still no definitive, authoritative analysis of where the actual tropical low (if it forms) will form, no unanimous model consensus ... what are you talking about??!!

Fairly obvious if you read the update. They see the central FLorida low as the dominate one so for now that should end the debate as too which is dominate. Further you could make the case that the North Gulf coast means La to the Panhandle. They seems to be relying on the Nam and GFs solutions. Funny how it seems posters from Texas just don't want to hear this.

Thank you caneman

[jrod]

I was at the beaches from Ponte Vedra to just north of St. Augustine and I can tell you it was very windy, easily gale force gust and probaly sustained in some of the squalls. Im just happy we are finally getting some rain, I expect it to dry out tommorow. Hopefully the surf will clean up, down south got the goods today.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

we may get a chance with the ULL down in the S GOM.

By all means, have it.

I think he means this to form into something...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, there you have it. The low is over central Florida and I might add a farily strong one. Producing near TD conditions. NHC Said interest along North Gulf Coast so looks to me like the NW track is favored. Case closed fow now. Even the mets get em wrong once in awhile

Case closed? What case? There is still no definitive, authoritative analysis of where the actual tropical low (if it forms) will form, no unanimous model consensus ... what are you talking about??!!

Fairly obvious if you read the update. They see the central FLorida low as the dominate one so for now that should end the debate as too which is dominate. Further you could make the case that the North Gulf coast means La to the Panhandle. They seems to be relying on the Nam and GFs solutions. Funny how it seems posters from Texas just don't want to hear this.

It doesn't end any of the debate...not even close. If you actually looked at the meteorological data you would see this. I just posted this on the last page, but I think I will place it here too:

Buoys and stations SW of Florida are showing dropping pressures and increasing winds. I think it is still a good bet that the main center will relocate down here...

Buoy 42023 = http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres ... 2023&uom=E

Buoy 42014 = http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... pres&uom=E

C-MAN station PLSF1 = http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres ... lsf1&uom=E

NOS station NPSF1 = http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres ... psf1&uom=E

BTW: I just checked and the pressures near these buoys/stations are just about as low as they are near the inland center in Orlando.

Also, most of the mets I have read on here today..as well as JB..are saying that a re-organization SW of Florida is more likely. Just b/c one update from the NHC puts more emphasis on the central FL low really means nothing. The entire situation could change by tomorrow...this is certainly not an easy forecast.