Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

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Re:

#441 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:43 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Trust the EURO...lol


Boy, if the EURO still stays on TX tonight, and that is what happens, I don't think I'll ever look at any other models but the EURO again :) I said that after Felix, but since it's the outlier, I'm finding it hard to go with.
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Re: Re:

#442 Postby jhamps10 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:47 pm

skysummit wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Trust the EURO...lol


Boy, if the EURO still stays on TX tonight, and that is what happens, I don't think I'll ever look at any other models but the EURO again :) I said that after Felix, but since it's the outlier, I'm finding it hard to go with.


Remember this skysummit, in Dean, and felix what was the only model to stick with Mexico, and Honduras/Belize and keep it there? Euro. Gfs flucated a lot, and it has in this case, but Euro is holding on very strong to Texas. IMO Euro has the odds in this race.
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Re: Re:

#443 Postby HollynLA » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:48 pm

skysummit wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Trust the EURO...lol


Boy, if the EURO still stays on TX tonight, and that is what happens, I don't think I'll ever look at any other models but the EURO again :) I said that after Felix, but since it's the outlier, I'm finding it hard to go with.


Yeah, no kiddin' so far the EURO is really sticking to it's guns and hasn't budged from TX in a while even though it's all alone. Let's see what the next EURO brings. What time does it come out?
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs

#444 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:49 pm

Ok NAM skims the Florida Panhandle and moves it onshore near Mobile,,
Image

also a side note..the NAM as well as the GFS develops the low off the SW coast off Florida and still has this solution
Last edited by Ivanhater on Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jhamps10

Re: Re:

#445 Postby jhamps10 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:49 pm

HollynLA wrote:
skysummit wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Trust the EURO...lol


Boy, if the EURO still stays on TX tonight, and that is what happens, I don't think I'll ever look at any other models but the EURO again :) I said that after Felix, but since it's the outlier, I'm finding it hard to go with.


Yeah, no kiddin' so far the EURO is really sticking to it's guns and hasn't budged from TX in a while even though it's all alone. Let's see what the next EURO bring. What time does it come out?


2:30AM Central time. and no I won't be staying up for it, at least tonight. Tommorrow night, that could be a different story.
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Re: Re:

#446 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:49 pm

jhamps10 wrote:
skysummit wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Trust the EURO...lol


Boy, if the EURO still stays on TX tonight, and that is what happens, I don't think I'll ever look at any other models but the EURO again :) I said that after Felix, but since it's the outlier, I'm finding it hard to go with.


Remember this skysummit, in Dean, and felix what was the only model to stick with Mexico, and Honduras/Belize and keep it there? Euro. Gfs flucated a lot, and it has in this case, but Euro is holding on very strong to Texas. IMO Euro has the odds in this race.


That is true, but that was also in the deep tropics. Will the EURO be as successful in the Gulf? The EURO is showing the complete opposite of the GFS and is breaking the ridge down over Texas, where as the GFS is maintaining the ridge. I know it's the NAM, but it's showing the same. After this is all said and done, it's going to be interesting to see if the EURO gets 3 for 3.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs

#447 Postby Sabanic » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:50 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Ok NAM skims the Florida Panhandle and moves it onshore near Mobile,,
Image


Like I said . . . That would be a little too close for comfort
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs

#448 Postby canetracker » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:50 pm

Holly,

Unfortunately you won't be able to view the EURO run til around 2:30A. I will check it in the morning.

Edit: Also agree with Skysummit in that we have not tested the EURO's performance in the GOM yet.
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#449 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:52 pm

Now, I am not saying that its gonna be DEAD on again. I just know that this year and in years past the EURO out performs the other globals by far. I am sorry WRF, just don't think its coming to fl panhandle or mobile bay.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs

#450 Postby Sabanic » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:57 pm

Well from what I am reading since every model, and every statment that mentions a possible landfall anywhere other than the WGOM is discounted I am going to bed, and quit worrying about this possible system from now on.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs

#451 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:59 pm

Just because a model gets a storm wrong, you dont just throw it away or trust just one...or you get burned the next time.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs

#452 Postby stormhorn » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:06 pm

Agreed Sabanic. The Texans have been wanting it bad all season. Every time I look at this site, it's a bunch of TXs and LAs fighting over who's going to get the biggest chunk of the kill.

Janet :roll:
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs

#453 Postby hicksta » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:10 pm

stormhorn wrote:Agreed Sabanic. The Texans have been wanting it bad all season. Every time I look at this site, it's a bunch of TXs and LAs fighting over who's going to get the biggest chunk of the kill.

Janet :roll:



Your going overboard, i know what its like and there's no way in hell i want a storm in my neighborhood ripping apart my memories and my house on galveston bay. Your saying im wanting my house to get damaged and the dock i work at to get destroyed? Please refrain yourself next time to make such a bold comment.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs

#454 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:11 pm

La can have it....They can have them all if they like...I dont think we fight over who is getting what, that would be for the sick minded.

Some want to hear and believe their own thing or believe just because we had Katrina/Rita means we are safe...NOPE....NOT EVEN CLOSE
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs

#455 Postby southerngale » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:13 pm

stormhorn wrote:Agreed Sabanic. The Texans have been wanting it bad all season. Every time I look at this site, it's a bunch of TXs and LAs fighting over who's going to get the biggest chunk of the kill.

Janet :roll:


Please don't generalize. Many Texans do not want ANOTHER storm. Many of us are still recovering from Rita, only to have Humberto blow through here last week.


But I do agree on one thing.... the bickering back and forth between some members is getting old.
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#456 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:29 pm

GFS is initialized with the low on the EC.

Looks to be a bad run in the short-term at least.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs=00z GFS rolling in

#457 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:30 pm

00z GFS is starting to roll.The low iniciates by the east coast,Ummm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif
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Re:

#458 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:30 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:GFS is initialized with the low on the EC.

Looks to be a bad run in the short-term at least.


Maybe not...that is the only "true" low at this time even though it's washing out. It'll probably be gone by 12 hours and will show the east gulf low.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs

#459 Postby Acral » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:32 pm

Why the bickering... this system is not looking all that good at the moment.

Multiple lows forming, several areas of suspected rotation... in either case looks like an anemic storm. This will change as the storm moves into the gulf.

Shear remains a factor even after the system moves in. There is also the dry air.

In light of the above, I am not seeing much more that a strong TS Jerry out of this, and at this early point, would be about all the system can become. Now I know things can change fast, but that is what I seeing.
Last edited by Acral on Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Model Runs=00z GFS rolling in

#460 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:33 pm

12 hours

Low off West Florida Coast.
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