Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

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americanrebel

#1081 Postby americanrebel » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:09 pm

Rita, and Lily, both majors making landfall this late west of NO>
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Ed Mahmoud

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#1082 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:11 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:development is almost certain to occur SW of Florida

it is the model solution (and the models had the low east of Florida) and also surface obs from south Florida had pressures about as low as N-Central Florida today.

By friday, we should have a TD and Sturday, a landfalling TS


With the Saturday landfall of a TS, you are leaning towards a Morgan City to Destin landfall area, maybe centered around Missisippi?


Just curious.
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Ed Mahmoud

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#1083 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:13 pm

americanrebel wrote:Rita, and Lily, both majors making landfall this late west of NO>


West of NO, but East of Texas (and yes, I know hurricane conditions effected extreme SE Texas all the way to Jasper and Newton counties).
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Re:

#1084 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:13 pm

americanrebel wrote:Rita, and Lily, both majors making landfall this late west of NO>


Lili was not a major hurricane at landfall.
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#1085 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:13 pm

Lili was a cat-1 at landfall- at best. I was there, saw it myself. Sorry to nit-pick but facts must remain in place.
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caneman

Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions=10:30 PM TWO at page 51

#1086 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:14 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
caneman wrote: Fairly obvious if you read the update. They see the central FLorida low as the dominate one so for now that should end the debate as too which is dominate. Further you could make the case that the North Gulf coast means La to the Panhandle. They seems to be relying on the Nam and GFs solutions. Funny how it seems posters from Texas just don't want to hear this.


You know...it could be that some don't want to hear this...but some just might not agree with this? Just because the NHC sees this low as the dominant one doesn't make it so. They didn't see Humberto reaching hurricane intensity...and didn't have the blessed foresight to even put out a WATCH (for crying out loud) at 10 pm when the winds were 65 mph and they even said additional strengthening is possible...so they are far from perfect...as are we all.

That being said...that does not end the debate. I point you to the RUC:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... 06hr09hr12

Which shows the low has become dominant off the SW coast of Florida...which totally hoses all the GFS/NAM solutions because garbage in = garbage out.

And that is what is being said. Not that people don't want to hear it, but that people don't agree. Personally...I hope it NEVER forms. As I mentioned yesterday...my 10th anniversary is this weekend and I have special plans to be away. If it forms and heads this way...I get to cancel the plans...possibly eat about $750 bucks in non-refundable hotel/other plans....and work....since this is more than just kicks for me. And my wife gets to celebrate our anniversary alone.


Lets assume you're right and that the SW center does over. The NAM and GFS have initialized from that location with a North coast hit. I never intimated that a Meteorologist would want it to come there way. I know better than that. Hopeully you'll have that anniversary, otherwise it may be the dog house for you :wink:
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions=10:30 PM TWO at page 51

#1087 Postby teal61 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:14 pm

njweather wrote:Hmmm,

"ALL
INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE.
"

Looks like they're excluding TX Coast (Houston, Freeport, Beaumont, etc.)



Ummm exactly where is Houston or Beaumont located, the southern GOM ? The last time I checked the upper Texas coast was along the Northwestern GOM
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americanrebel

#1088 Postby americanrebel » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:15 pm

I just saying you can never say never about a storm not being able to go a certain amount west.

NO I am not fighting over if Texas or Louisiana will get this storm, just trying to figure out where this storm is going.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1089 Postby lrak » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:16 pm

so which is it NW North or NE GOM :lol:
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americanrebel

#1090 Postby americanrebel » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:17 pm

That is funny I live In Crowley La. and when Lili came across we had steady winds of 105 and gust up to 130, and that is with Crowley being 35 miles as the crow flies from the coast. Crowley was the second hardest hit town only to Abbeville, so don't even say it was a minimual hurricane.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions=10:30 PM TWO at page 51

#1091 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:17 pm

caneman wrote:Well then no offense to you then POrta. It happens for every storm though. Where one state pulls against actual obs and NHC. It just gets frustrating reading posts that start out seeming legit and then you see the state next to the name it kinda just ruins their reasoning you read. BTW-When I said case closed I meant for now. NHC didn't even mention the supposed SW florida low and I'm not sure that would even matter because NHC specifically said North coast landfall so I assume they see a pattern that will take it there..


Not sure if you were around for this part of the conversation...but the GFS/GFS ENSEMB/EURO/NOGAPS/CONSENSUS all pretty much have the same solution track-wise. The reason the GFS takes the system into the northern Gulf states is not a different pattern it sees...but because it has the initial low further north. If you place it off the SW FL coast where the EURO and NOGAPS does...and then track it out...it pretty much follows the same track.

As far as the obs go...the obs are clear...there is a large area of low pressure over the peninsula of Florida...and the pressure is just as low over SW FL as it is over N/CNTL Florida. There is a center right off the SW coast and the one the NHC sees. My experience tells me the one the NHC sees will rotate into the overall circulation by tomorrow morning sometime because by the look of the wind field, the northern part has a sharper trof like appearance that seems to be rotating around a larger center. The southern wind field is much more rounded. That is also where the deeper convection is and the better dynamics. NAM also puts the low down there by 12Z...
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1092 Postby lrak » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:19 pm

Only been through a few but nothing that bad.

Yes I was just making fun of the NORTH debate going on :D
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions=10:30 PM TWO at page 51

#1093 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:19 pm

caneman wrote:Lets assume you're right and that the SW center does over. The NAM and GFS have initialized from that location with a North coast hit. I never intimated that a Meteorologist would want it to come there way. I know better than that. Hopeully you'll have that anniversary, otherwise it may be the dog house for you :wink:


I'm already there. She got Jeff's email about this system on Monday and called me in a panic....and ticked off...
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#1094 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:20 pm

americanrebel wrote:I just saying you can never say never about a storm not being able to go a certain amount west.

NO I am not fighting over if Texas or Louisiana will get this storm, just trying to figure out where this storm is going.


Once the system forms one real center, which I think it is doing, then we can all watch it more closely and the models will grasp it...stay tuned, Crowley, LA!!
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1095 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:21 pm

AFM, sorry to disagree with another air force member..I will be an officer in 3 years :D ..but GFS does develop the low off the SW Florida coast and still has the same solution

GFS 12 HRImage
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caneman

Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions=10:30 PM TWO at page 51

#1096 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:21 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
caneman wrote:Well then no offense to you then POrta. It happens for every storm though. Where one state pulls against actual obs and NHC. It just gets frustrating reading posts that start out seeming legit and then you see the state next to the name it kinda just ruins their reasoning you read. BTW-When I said case closed I meant for now. NHC didn't even mention the supposed SW florida low and I'm not sure that would even matter because NHC specifically said North coast landfall so I assume they see a pattern that will take it there..


Not sure if you were around for this part of the conversation...but the GFS/GFS ENSEMB/EURO/NOGAPS/CONSENSUS all pretty much have the same solution track-wise. The reason the GFS takes the system into the northern Gulf states is not a different pattern it sees...but because it has the initial low further north. If you place it off the SW FL coast where the EURO and NOGAPS does...and then track it out...it pretty much follows the same track.

As far as the obs go...the obs are clear...there is a large area of low pressure over the peninsula of Florida...and the pressure is just as low over SW FL as it is over N/CNTL Florida. There is a center right off the SW coast and the one the NHC sees. My experience tells me the one the NHC sees will rotate into the overall circulation by tomorrow morning sometime because by the look of the wind field, the northern part has a sharper trof like appearance that seems to be rotating around a larger center. The southern wind field is much more rounded. That is also where the deeper convection is and the better dynamics. NAM also puts the low down there by 12Z...


Well if you're right you miss out on your anniversary, if I'm right you get to go. So lets hope I'm right :wink:
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Re:

#1097 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:22 pm

Steve wrote:>>...I "ain't," stupid. I'm proud to be in a recovery area that I know is no longer threatened. Now, if people in other areas of the country that watch CNN seem to feel differently are more concerned, that's cool. That's fine. I'll stick to what I know. Now, back to the system.

Dude. I'm 99% sure you are alon504 on Saintsreport. I'm disappointed that after > 9 hours away from a computer, I can't read about what's going on with the storm. But you failed to respond on those Saintsreport threads that got backed to the top when you simply disappeared. If you want to stick to what you know, you probably ought not chide people. Let's take a look again at some of the things you've said this year:

1) Telling me of all people: All you have to do is typical weather internet research, which I do every day. It's not that hard.

2) (from July cool front): But, if this pattern continues, we can feel pretty good about hurricane season as this pattern will push systems East pretty quickly and forcefully.

3) The heat and Summer is out West this year, TPS. You think Summer is just beginning? I have to disagree....we're less than two weeks from August. We've been experiencing a typical New Orleans Summer this year, IMHO. I don't feel that we are in a threatening pattern for the tropics this year. I don't see it, at all. Could I be wrong? Of course. But, I watch every year and I just don't see it this year. I see a cooler, earlier Autumn for the South this year.

4) Tropical Depression 4 (Cat 5 Dean): More than likely this will be a fish storm, IMO...we'll see.

5) Just because it is hot doesn't mean it won't cool down by early September. I haven't seen anything that changes this...

Anyway, just some food for thought. None of us is perfect, but that dude TPS over there has been pretty solid this year. ;)

Steve (now heading back to Page 50 to actually try to find some information on what's going on).


LOL...I love ya Saints fan. I've been half right you loser!!!! :D I just wish I was wrong with the Saints record.....Now, back to our tropical weather for Saturday!!!!
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jhamps10

Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions=10:30 PM TWO at page 51

#1098 Postby jhamps10 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:23 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
caneman wrote:Lets assume you're right and that the SW center does over. The NAM and GFS have initialized from that location with a North coast hit. I never intimated that a Meteorologist would want it to come there way. I know better than that. Hopeully you'll have that anniversary, otherwise it may be the dog house for you :wink:


I'm already there. She got Jeff's email about this system on Monday and called me in a panic....and ticked off...


ouch.
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americanrebel

#1099 Postby americanrebel » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:23 pm

So Lili was retired in 2002 because it was a minimal hurricane, I don't think so.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1100 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:23 pm

When fighting starts over geo locations, Im outta here....this is nuts.
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