Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[caneman]

We love them Saints down here Back to weather

[HeeBGBz]

Latest:

Well, now this is another story. This looks like a broad low with a center around Tampa that is moving SW. This looks classic hybrid changing into a tropical system. This will be a great story to wake up to tomorrow and see what's up, IMO.

That's what I thought I was seeing too. It all seems to be revolving around the area of 83W 27N.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-wv.html

[Stormcenter]

so which is it NW North or NE GOM

You know in this case I would go along with what the NHC says just
because of the strong wording in their 10:30pm TWO. They seemed pretty
sure of themselves. Though as we all should know by now nothing is written in stone with tropical disturbances or developed systems. Just my 2 cents.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Latest:

Well, now this is another story. This looks like a broad low with a center around Tampa that is moving SW. This looks classic hybrid changing into a tropical system. This will be a great story to wake up to tomorrow and see what's up, IMO.

That's what I thought I was seeing too. It all seems to be revolving around the area of 83W 27N.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-wv.html

It's been what has been predicted all along.....Thursday will give us the answers we seek....

[Air Force Met]

Why would that hose the GFS and NAM?...they both develop the low SW of Florida

Because if you look at their outputs...they start off over the Cape and track it WSW then WNW-NW and inland. The GFS and its ensembles never make it past 26N. If it finally consolidates at 25N and the pattern is such to impart a W or WSW motion...

Basically it is this: 1 degree of bad initialization to the north on the GFS will bring the track in 3 degrees too far to the east because of the angle of approach. So...26N comes in at 90W with the GFS. 25N comes in at 93W...

Through in some south of west movement as it shows in the first 24 hours...then you have a 5 degree error...and the track matches the EURO and NOGAPS.

[Steve]

>>Considering JB's track record this year...ATM he thinks the 500mb ridge to the north will be too strong to allow this system to turn NW or NNW toward New Orleans (he did say it was possible..just not likely), and the greatest threat is still along the upper TX and southwest LA coast.

Yep. Not a whole lot of people seem to want to hear that though. Texas has been an easy call since Friday or Saturday IMHO. I have somewhere around 10 posts linking 93L with Nari and Wipha. I'm going to take it a step farther. Unless there's a big old gaping hole in the ridging along the northern Gulf Coast, whatever/wherever 93L is, it's going to Texas. That might be by way of landfall or it may be just a general thrust. But I'm about 95% that if something forms, Texas will see something from it. And if for some reason it doesn't with 93L, the Texas season ain't remotely over yet. Don't even think that. Screw climatology in 2007. This was a very late summer for the Gulf Coast. We had upper boundaries settling down here well into July. "fronts" that have since come down were always in front of high pressure to our NE that were generally longer than they was wider for whatever reason. So the systems weren't technically reversed or "backdoor", but that's the way things went down. I took cold fronts and highs of northern origin to get summer going.

And yeah, I've been saying this for months.

Steve

[Wx_Warrior]

And the last NOGAPS runs in now in LA...big shift east from it...

[Ivanhater]

Why would that hose the GFS and NAM?...they both develop the low SW of Florida

Because if you look at their outputs...they start off over the Cape and track it WSW then WNW-NW and inland. The GFS and its ensembles never make it past 26N. If it finally consolidates at 25N and the pattern is such to impart a W or WSW motion...

Basically it is this: 1 degree of bad initialization to the north on the GFS will bring the track in 3 degrees too far to the east because of the angle of approach. So...26N comes in at 90W with the GFS. 25N comes in at 93W...

Through in some south of west movement as it shows in the first 24 hours...then you have a 5 degree error...and the track matches the EURO and NOGAPS.

True, but I am not so sure GFS tracks it wsw across Florida as much as it loses the low east of Florida and begins to develop the low SW of Florida as evident by the NAM as well

[HollynLA]

Why would that hose the GFS and NAM?...they both develop the low SW of Florida

Because if you look at their outputs...they start off over the Cape and track it WSW then WNW-NW and inland. The GFS and its ensembles never make it past 26N. If it finally consolidates at 25N and the pattern is such to impart a W or WSW motion...

Basically it is this: 1 degree of bad initialization to the north on the GFS will bring the track in 3 degrees too far to the east because of the angle of approach. So...26N comes in at 90W with the GFS. 25N comes in at 93W...

Through in some south of west movement as it shows in the first 24 hours...then you have a 5 degree error...and the track matches the EURO and NOGAPS.

AFM, the 18z NOGAPS moved well eastward into LA leaving the EURO alone in Texas............ right?

[Derek Ortt]

the Saturday landfall TS would be between destin and Galveston, probably LA... but of course, it could change

[Sean in New Orleans]

Remember, when it breaks off from the large system that we see, we will see a smaller developing tropical system. It won't look as impressive as what we've seen today and this evening, but, it will be more potent and it will develop into a respectable tropical system that will strengthen and move towards, likely, the N Gulf Coast (anywhere from Florida to Louisiana). I doubt Texas.

[carversteve]

Looks like some convection firing around the swirl..sw coast of florida.

[Extremeweatherguy]

FWIW, the small LLC near Orlando seems to have washed out this evening: http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999

I think the mets are right about this being more of a broad low with the likely center being just off the SW coast of FL (based on buoy data).

[Air Force Met]

AFM, the 18z NOGAPS moved well eastward into LA leaving the EURO alone in Texas............ right?

Correct...but the low is again placed off of the Cape at 18Z.

[ROCK]

FWIW, the small LLC near Orlando seems to have washed out this evening: http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999

I think the mets are right about this being more of a broad low with the likely center being just off the SW coast of FL (based on buoy data).

yep, and thats why I am skeptical of the latest GFS run rolling in along with the other models. But what do I know I am from Texas......

[tolakram]

This was a very late summer for the Gulf Coast.

When will it end! 90 degrees with a smog alert in Cincinnati. No cold fronts, no fall. 93L is developing from the only cold front to move through and I don't see anything else until possibly next Monday, and that's up here, not down at the coast. The early fall comments really get to me as I watch my newly planted grass shrivel in the early August like heat.

I wonder how much the low ice levels in the Arctic are effecting short term weather trends. In my uneducated opinion this would seem to be a setup for a late running season.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Here we go kids....just like predicted. Just off SW Florida we're forming. Now, I watch and worry.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Air Force Met]

Here we go kids....just like predicted. Just off SW Florida we're forming. Now, I watch and worry.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Can't be. The NHC said it was over north central Florida.

/sarcasm

[Ptarmigan]

93L kinda reminds me of an extratropical low. I think it will develop late tomorrow to Friday. As for strength, that's really anyone's guess. I would probably say no more than a Category 1 hurricane at most. However, anything can happen with this low pressure system.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

10:00 pm news - Beaumont, TX - KFDM met Greg Bostwick forecast - He predicted that the NE low will dissolve in the next few hours. He feels the SW low is strengthening and will move into the GOMEX. He said the US high pressure system will be strong enough to carry it in a more westerly direction. He anticipates the low being due south of NOLA by sometime Friday. Still won't project a specific landfall yet but has increased the local precip chances for Sun and Mon to 60%. BTW, he tends to be the more conservative met in our area.