Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

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Wx_Warrior
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1121 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:46 pm

And from my understanding another local met on the 10pm newscast (i will not name) said Cat 1 NOLA on Saturday evening....
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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#1122 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:47 pm

wicked_wx_watcher wrote:10:00 pm news - Beaumont, TX - KFDM met Greg Bostwick forecast - He predicted that the NE low will dissolve in the next few hours. He feels the SW low is strengthening and will move into the GOMEX. He said the US high pressure system will be strong enough to carry it in a more westerly direction. He anticipates the low being due south of NOLA by sometime Friday. Still won't project a specific landfall yet but has increased the local precip chances for Sun and Mon to 60%. BTW, he tends to be the more conservative met in our area.


Is he the KFDM Pro-Met that posts here?
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Re:

#1123 Postby jasons2k » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:47 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:FWIW, the small LLC near Orlando seems to have washed out this evening: http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999

I think the mets are right about this being more of a broad low with the likely center being just off the SW coast of FL (based on buoy data).


Not just the Mets ;-) And yes you get a gold star too this time.
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Re:

#1124 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:49 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:Here we go kids....just like predicted. Just off SW Florida we're forming. Now, I watch and worry.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html



I'm not sold on either center. The one to north looks broad and the one to south still
looks more like its in the upper levels. IMO
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Re: Re:

#1125 Postby wicked_wx_watcher » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:50 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
wicked_wx_watcher wrote:10:00 pm news - Beaumont, TX - KFDM met Greg Bostwick forecast - He predicted that the NE low will dissolve in the next few hours. He feels the SW low is strengthening and will move into the GOMEX. He said the US high pressure system will be strong enough to carry it in a more westerly direction. He anticipates the low being due south of NOLA by sometime Friday. Still won't project a specific landfall yet but has increased the local precip chances for Sun and Mon to 60%. BTW, he tends to be the more conservative met in our area.


Is he the KFDM Pro-Met that posts here?


It might be or it could be Kerry Cooper. He's pretty active on several boards.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1126 Postby swampdude » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:50 pm

Ed - Greg is a met at KFDM but he is Greg KFDM. KFDM Met is another meteorologist there. Greg is solid and not one to make wild predictions. Maybe Greg will post his thoughts here tonight. Greg, how about it? :wink:
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1127 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:52 pm

Two low pressure centers are fighting to become the dominant one. :wink: :lol:
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1128 Postby wicked_wx_watcher » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:53 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:And from my understanding another local met on the 10pm newscast (i will not name) said Cat 1 NOLA on Saturday evening....


Any hints on who gave the above forecast? I try to see all of them when bad weather is pending but I missed the others tonight. It is amazing how different the 3 stations' forecasts can be. Humberto was a good example.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1129 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:58 pm

FWIW: The 00Z GFS is rolling in and the upper level pattern thru 60 hours really looks like the EURO at 12Z's run. Almost identical. The GFS 00Z run is not keeping track of the sfc feature well though. The 850 center is over SELA while the 500 mb center is over the GOM at about 26/92. So...it isn't handling the track well at all on this run, but the pattern at 500 looks a lot like the EURO.

Check that - Thru 78 hrs...the pattern still fits the 12Z EURO and the sfc/850 features are a mess. The 500 feature is weak but off the TX coast.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1130 Postby jhamps10 » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:00 pm

Air Force Met wrote:FWIW: The 00Z GFS is rolling in and the upper level pattern thru 60 hours really looks like the EURO at 12Z's run. Almost identical. The GFS 00Z run is not keeping track of the sfc feature well though. The 850 center is over SELA while the 500 mb center is over the GOM at about 26/92. So...it isn't handling the track well at all on this run, but the pattern at 500 looks a lot like the EURO.

Check that - Thru 78 hrs...the pattern still fits the 12Z EURO and the sfc/850 features are a mess. The 500 feature is weak but off the TX coast.


yeah, but AFM, look at the surface. lets just say the upper air fits the EURO, but the sfc follows serious NAM tonight.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1131 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:02 pm

jhamps10 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:FWIW: The 00Z GFS is rolling in and the upper level pattern thru 60 hours really looks like the EURO at 12Z's run. Almost identical. The GFS 00Z run is not keeping track of the sfc feature well though. The 850 center is over SELA while the 500 mb center is over the GOM at about 26/92. So...it isn't handling the track well at all on this run, but the pattern at 500 looks a lot like the EURO.

Check that - Thru 78 hrs...the pattern still fits the 12Z EURO and the sfc/850 features are a mess. The 500 feature is weak but off the TX coast.


yeah, but AFM, look at the surface. lets just say the upper air fits the EURO, but the sfc follows serious NAM tonight.
Surface shows it hitting south Louisiana..very similar to the 18z run (and further west than the NAM). The upper air is what counts though. With a strong ridge in place, there is no way for this storm to turn NW or N. Therefore, a hit to New Orleans eastward would be unlikely. An upper pattern similar to the EURO has Texas or SW Louisiana written all over it.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1132 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:07 pm

jhamps10 wrote: yeah, but AFM, look at the surface. lets just say the upper air fits the EURO, but the sfc follows serious NAM tonight.


Given the two choices in tropical steering...I will ignore the NAM completely and go with the EURO every time. The NAM is pretty much useless in tropical steering...which means that what it is seeing may never be tropical or it is getting it all wrong.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1133 Postby PTPatrick » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:08 pm

BUT the NAM's bread an butter is cold core...so I would think it might do ok with a sts or transitioning system
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1134 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:10 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
jhamps10 wrote: yeah, but AFM, look at the surface. lets just say the upper air fits the EURO, but the sfc follows serious NAM tonight.


Given the two choices in tropical steering...I will ignore the NAM completely and go with the EURO every time. The NAM is pretty much useless in tropical steering...which means that what it is seeing may never be tropical or it is getting it all wrong.


And looking at the NAM...it's not showing a tropical system. The low its tracking through 36 hours is vertically stacked from the sfc to 200 mb. That's not tropical. So...if it verifies...we will not have a tropical system at all.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1135 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:14 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
jhamps10 wrote: yeah, but AFM, look at the surface. lets just say the upper air fits the EURO, but the sfc follows serious NAM tonight.


Given the two choices in tropical steering...I will ignore the NAM completely and go with the EURO every time. The NAM is pretty much useless in tropical steering...which means that what it is seeing may never be tropical or it is getting it all wrong.


And looking at the NAM...it's not showing a tropical system. The low its tracking through 36 hours is vertically stacked from the sfc to 200 mb. That's not tropical. So...if it verifies...we will not have a tropical system at all.



I am learning something new every time you post AFM...thanks....
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1136 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:16 pm

ROCK wrote: I am learning something new every time you post AFM...thanks....


I'm learning that I hate whatever demon spawn is spinning off the SW coast of FL (since the vortex over N/CNTL Fl is shearing out) :lol:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1137 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:17 pm

I think Florida needs another 88D near Naples, and while they are at it, an 88D near PBI wouldn't be bad, at the very least as backup for TBW and AMX and MLB.


Because what I'm trying to see is out of the short range view of both TBW and BYX
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Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1138 Postby cpdaman » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:18 pm

wind has picked up rather briskly in parkland/ boca tonite.

maybe from the low over SW florida. i remember watching tropical update on TWC around noon and mike bettis (sp?) was saying he would bet the dominant feature to watch was the ull working it's way to the surface, and i believe that is what is occuring.
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#1139 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:18 pm

>>LOL...I love ya Saints fan. I've been half right you loser!!!! I just wish I was wrong with the Saints record.....Now, back to our tropical weather for Saturday!!!!

LMAO. Back to tropics indeed. Interesting day on tap tomorrow, but I'm out of energy and words to type. So y'all keep some stuff cranking out so I got something to read with breakfast.

Steve
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: INVEST 93L: Florida: Discussions & Images

#1140 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:18 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
ROCK wrote: I am learning something new every time you post AFM...thanks....


I'm learning that I hate whatever demon spawn is spinning off the SW coast of FL (since the vortex over N/CNTL Fl is shearing out) :lol:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html


Well, if your fellow Pro Met Derek Ortt and many of the models are correct, this is inland Saturday and most of your weekend is saved, right?
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