Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Extremeweatherguy]

spin setting up well SSW of Tampa this morning...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999

[Normandy]

One way you can tell this LLC is tightening up....

Look at those feeder bands flying SSW west of Tampa...

[lamsalfl]

wtf is the nhc seeing in their latest TWO?? LLC over central Fla??

[crownweather]

<<scratching my head wondering what they are looking at>>

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
WEATHER DISTURBANCE.

[lamsalfl]

and that water is 87 degrees! i bet when i wake up around 12:30 central it'll be better organized.

[Normandy]

Yea, can't say I agree much with them in this case. There def is no obs indicating an LLC over Florida....all data suggests the strongest low level circulation is SW of Tampa (West of Port Charlotte or so).

[lamsalfl]

is it me, or has that LLC really tightened up and shrunk overnight?

[bwhorton2007]

Hey normandy couldn't stand it,went to bed but saw this thing in my head.Anyway what is the nhc looking at just checked the sats and the strongest convection is clearly over water and strenghtening as it appears.

[bigGbear]

<<scratching my head wondering what they are looking at>>

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.

I think I see what they are talking about - look at the shortwave IR.

[Normandy]

Don't even need to check the sats for evidence that an LLC is not over FL....all obs indicate a Low is forming off the SW coast. Radar shows it pretty well also...can't really say why the NHC thinks its still over central florida...

[lamsalfl]

<<scratching my head wondering what they are looking at>>

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.

I think I see what they are talking about - look at the shortwave IR.

that little swirl going up the east coast and then collapsing south of Jacksonville?

[bwhorton2007]

also the radars are sending TVS (tornadic vortex signatures) back too. gotta be some waterspouts out there.

[lamsalfl]

26.9 N 83.9 W is where I have the center plotted.

[bwhorton2007]

i think they will change thier tune in what is where later this morning.

[mobilebay]

I don't know what the NHC is looking at either. There is no doubt in my mind a LLC is forming SSW of Tampa. It's like they already had this TWO typed up last night. I don't want to bash NHC but if it walks like a duck... I think they will issue a STDS later this morning when someone looks at the radar/sat. JMHO

[lamsalfl]

well, i think this might organize faster than anticipated because the shear is tremendously reduced and the water is 87 degrees. JMHO, but i'm some idiot, so whatever.

[bigGbear]

<<scratching my head wondering what they are looking at>>

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.

I think I see what they are talking about - look at the shortwave IR.

that little swirl going up the east coast and then collapsing south of Jacksonville?

No - I didn't notice that but it is interesting - It looks like something emerging north of Tampa which is starting to interact with the convection off of Sarasota.

[mobilebay]

Also for what it's worth the models seem to be putting the low in the same spot at 00 hours. See the 06Z's NAM. It has it nailed SSW of Tampa.

[bwhorton2007]

somrthing tells me this thing is about to explode.

[Normandy]

somrthing tells me this thing is about to explode.

Nah.
Not even fully tropical yet, no explosion will occur today at least.
Off to bed, see yall later.