Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[PTPatrick]

Man this is just such a complex storm over all. It seems like the models that have been hanging on to the low from the EC were sort of right. There was a low over central FL last night. surface obs dont lie. But those same models still caught the redevelopment off Tampa. The complex thing here now I think more so than track(because at this point track appears to be pretty open and shut initial NW with a bend West at the end hugging the north gulf coast from Apalachicola to New Orleans...kudos GFS/NAM/and friends) is what strength and whether it can make full transition. The GFS and NAM are actually showing more of a cold core system...and they both seem to weaken a little as the approad the gulf coast. Mobile AFD seems to hint that this weakening shown in (i think the 36 to 48 time frame) is when the actually full tropical transition occurs if I read correctly. What I find odd too is that niether models generates all the much QPF. one would think slow mover paralleling the coast just off shore would be a sure fire rainmaker, but alas GFS and NAM dont show. May happen, but the dry air could continue to be problem...which I would think would put the lid on heavy rain potential.
Dont get me wrong, there will probably be localized flash flooding...but since the storm will actually be moving W and not north the bands will actually move too, in stread of training. So anywho...just my little pre-coffee morning thoughts, do with them what you wish. have a good day folks

[Stormcenter]

If you want a good reason why this "shouldnt" become more
then maybe a strong TS then just take a look at this loop. Yes I know things
can change but as of now I think they won't. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[caneman]

Yep Dean that is the one we have been speaking of and with the BAM models initialized correctly now, I think definitely from the Panhandle ot LA. Doesn't look like it will be much more than a medium TS though.

[ronjon]

There is a vortex about 30 miles west of Engelwood moving north along the coast. This vortex is imbedded within the larger CC flow west of Ft Myers. Shows up nicely on RAD. I imagine we'll see several of vortices spinning in the broader circulation until we get a well defined LLC of the system.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

[rockyman]

new TCFA (if this has already been posted, )

WTNT01 KNGU 201200Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201200Z SEP 07//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27.0N
83.0W TO 28.0N 86.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1008MB IS LOCATED WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26.7N 82.8W.
MOVEMENT IS WESTERLY AT APPROXIMATELY 8 KNOTS. ESTIMATED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH WINDS
ON THE PERIMETER OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 25 KNOTS AS IT IS
INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SURFACE LOW
AND INHIBITING IMMEDIATE ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS OFF FROM THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND MOVES INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (88F) WITHIN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211200Z.

[dwg71]

most every model, even when initializing the low over central florida had it in this area (off the west coast of FLA), there will not be some major shift to the west in the models.

NOLA looks pretty logical, TS, maybe Cat 1 IMO.

[PTPatrick]

And could this blowup be our player that GFS seems to being on on the tail of Jerry to be ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Stormcenter]

most every model, even when initializing the low over central florida had it in this area (off the west coast of FLA), there will not be some major shift to the west in the models.

NOLA looks pretty logical, TS, maybe Cat 1 IMO.

A Cat. 1 would be a major stretch right now. IMO

[Recurve]

Definitely there is the ULL. Last night I saw *three* small spinning eddies over the central peninsula.
Wind has become strong from the south, as noted in the FWDs posted above. Still in a dry slot here.
Interesting that the TPC discussion mentions development being enhanced as the surface low moving under the ULL.

[dwg71]

most every model, even when initializing the low over central florida had it in this area (off the west coast of FLA), there will not be some major shift to the west in the models.

NOLA looks pretty logical, TS, maybe Cat 1 IMO.

A Cat. 1 would be a major stretch right now. IMO

I agree, its called Humberto effect , in essence CYA. I had Humberto landfall location and time spot on, but didnt see hurricane status.

[Stormcenter]

new TCFA (if this has already been posted, )

WTNT01 KNGU 201200Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201200Z SEP 07//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27.0N
83.0W TO 28.0N 86.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1008MB IS LOCATED WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26.7N 82.8W.
MOVEMENT IS WESTERLY AT APPROXIMATELY 8 KNOTS. ESTIMATED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH WINDS
ON THE PERIMETER OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 25 KNOTS AS IT IS
INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SURFACE LOW
AND INHIBITING IMMEDIATE ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS OFF FROM THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND MOVES INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (88F) WITHIN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211200Z.

Didn't the last alert say the same thing and nothing happened?

[Stormcenter]

most every model, even when initializing the low over central florida had it in this area (off the west coast of FLA), there will not be some major shift to the west in the models.

NOLA looks pretty logical, TS, maybe Cat 1 IMO.

A Cat. 1 would be a major stretch right now. IMO

I agree, its called Humberto effect , in essence CYA. I had Humberto landfall location and time spot on, but didnt see hurricane status.

It's good to cover all bases when it comes to tropical systems.

[Recurve]

As they say in #2, they are reissuing, not canceling (unless that's not current)

[Chacor]

new TCFA (if this has already been posted, )
WTNT01 KNGU 201200Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201200Z SEP 07//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27.0N
83.0W TO 28.0N 86.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1008MB IS LOCATED WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26.7N 82.8W.
MOVEMENT IS WESTERLY AT APPROXIMATELY 8 KNOTS. ESTIMATED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH WINDS
ON THE PERIMETER OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 25 KNOTS AS IT IS
INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SURFACE LOW
AND INHIBITING IMMEDIATE ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS OFF FROM THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND MOVES INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (88F) WITHIN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211200Z.

Didn't the last alert say the same thing and nothing happened?

Emphasis mine. "Formation of a tropical cyclone is POSSIBLE". It does not mean a TC will form.

As they say in #2, they are reissuing, not canceling (unless that's not current)

They issued the first one yesterday, this is indeed a reissuance.

[skysummit]

I would like to see what wxman57 says now that the EURO has shifted east. What is his thinking regarding this......

[Agua]

(sigh) Just enough of a disturbance to ruin opening weekend of dove season in the south zone of MS and drive birds from established fields in the rest of the state.

[Air Force Met]

I would like to see what wxman57 says now that the EURO has shifted east. What is his thinking regarding this......

Probably not much of a change...he's been saying SW LA...and that is about where the EURO is taking this.

[skysummit]

I would like to see what wxman57 says now that the EURO has shifted east. What is his thinking regarding this......

Probably not much of a change...he's been saying SW LA...and that is about where the EURO is taking this.

Yea, that's what I thought. AFM, do you think we should disregard the tropical models even though they were initalized correctly? I don't understand why they're showing a northwest movement right off the back.

Are you going primarily with the EURO too?

[wxman57]

I would like to see what wxman57 says now that the EURO has shifted east. What is his thinking regarding this......

Probably not much of a change...he's been saying SW LA...and that is about where the EURO is taking this.

I have it going into Vermilion Bay (mid LA coast) as of 10am yesterday. I still think the models initialized about 60 miles too far north according to buoy obs in eastern Gulf. I have the center near 25.5N/84W. Buoy near 26N/83W has SE winds and 1007.9mb. Could be multiple centers, though.

[HURAKAN]

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