Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[miamicanes177]

I doubt there are 40 mph winds anywhere near this system. This does not justify recon today as this deos not fit the definition of a TD (a closed circulation with organized convection). We are missin the second part. Reschedule the flights for tomorrow

If NHC knew it was a TD then they would begin issuing advisories. They usually will send recon to determine if a TD has formed. You do not need to have a guaranteed TD already formed to send recon. What harm is caused from recon investigating this? In my opinion, the crew is not at serious risk by flying into 93L. I'm not sure why recon investigating the area would cause anyone to become upset.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:



Looking less organized.

[skysummit]

I doubt there are 40 mph winds anywhere near this system. This does not justify recon today as this deos not fit the definition of a TD (a closed circulation with organized convection). We are missin the second part. Reschedule the flights for tomorrow

If NHC knew it was a TD then they would begin issuing advisories. They usually will send recon to determine if a TD has formed. You do not need to have a guaranteed TD already formed to send recon. What harm is caused from recon investigating this? In my opinion, the crew is not at serious risk by flying into 93L. I'm not sure why recon investigating the area would cause anyone to become upset.

Yea, no joke. They're always flying training missions anyway. Hell, this is right there in the Gulf. They can put a pot of crabs to boil and by the time the get back, they should be ready eat. It's not like they're flying to 55w.

[Sanibel]

Remember, you're looking through the upper. If a ULL is over the system it will look less organized as the lower level strengthens and challenges its power.

[HURAKAN]

By the way, there is not much you need to do to prepare for a weak to moderately strong tropical storm. Just stay in your home or in a safe place, and if you know where you are is prone to flooding, get out. Isn't like you need time to put up your shutters and stock on food and water. Don't measure every season by 2005 standards and don't measure every disturbance by Humberto's standards. They are the exceptions, not the rule.

[Steve]

Well my ideas of a farther west solution than NOLA seem to be indicated in the early 12z guidance. We'll see.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

issuing a TS warning 6 hours in advance is more than enough time to make preparations for what is really just a summer thunderstorm

[skysummit]

issuing a TS warning 6 hours in advance is more than enough time to make preparations for what is really just a summer thunderstorm

Not if you have to find a place to put 7,000 people living in FEMA cardboard boxes.

[DESTRUCTION5]

issuing a TS warning 6 hours in advance is more than enough time to make preparations for what is really just a summer thunderstorm

Although I agree Derek, Im sure the guy that wacked in his head with an Awning and killed in TX would disagree..

[Sjones]

Derek, did you get enough sleep last night? Because your posts today aren't making any sense...

[Derek Ortt]

that was a hurricane that hit Texas

Also, that guy should not have been standing under his awning... he got the Darwin award for that storm

[HURAKAN]

Derek, did you get enough sleep last night? Because your posts today aren't making any sense...

Wait there, personal attacks are not allowed.

[CoCo2]

Yeah Derek, the weather pros said that about Cindy in 2005, just a thunderstorm, no big deal... well Miss Cindy went right over me, and while Cindy was no Katrina, she scared the bejeezes out of me.

[jlauderdal]

issuing a TS warning 6 hours in advance is more than enough time to make preparations for what is really just a summer thunderstorm

unless its a TS with say 70 sustained then a little more than 6 hours might be helpful to people but living on the edge can be exciting.

[miamicanes177]

By the way, there is not much you need to do to prepare for a weak to moderately strong tropical storm. Just stay in your home or in a safe place, and if you know where you are is prone to flooding, get out. Isn't like you need time to put up your shutters and stock on food and water. Don't measure every season by 2005 standards and don't measure every disturbance by Humberto's standards. They are the exceptions, not the rule.

You're assuming this will be a weak to moderate tropical storm though. Even the NHC says they have little skill in forecasting intensity. The truth is that nobody knows what the landfall intensity will be and everyone should prepare for the worst but hope for the best.

[HURAKAN]

Yeah Derek, the weather pros said that about Cindy in 2005, just a thunderstorm, no big deal... well Miss Cindy went right over me, and while Cindy was no Katrina, she scared the bejeezes out of me.

No one says a hurricane is fun ride. Of course it's rough, but it's easily survivable if you take normal procedures.

[skysummit]

that was a hurricane that hit Texas

Also, that guy should not have been standing under his awning... he got the Darwin award for that storm

Totally disrespectful and irresponsible post...

So you're saying 40mph isn't enough to blow down an awning heh? LOL...too funny sometimes. Lots of times I respect what you have to say, but others I just have no idea where you're at.

[Air Force Met]

I doubt there are 40 mph winds anywhere near this system. This does not justify recon today as this deos not fit the definition of a TD (a closed circulation with organized convection). We are missin the second part. Reschedule the flights for tomorrow

I agree. I am starting to come to the conclusion that the reason the NAM/GFS does what it does with this system...and maybe the reason the EURO is starting to shift...is because the upper low never gets out of the way...and it never will transition. Looking at the charts from this morning, the upper low is still stacked with the sfc to some degree. Its vertically stacked still in 24 hrs and it's sub tropical at best in 48 hours with trofing in the upper levels and the low at the sfc.

If it doesn't develop into a tropical entity...and it is really starting to look like it never will because the ULL isn't getting out of the way...then the NAM/GFS solutions will be the correct ones...because they are steering a baroclinic extratropical type system. And that is what it appears to be through tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

BACK ON TOPIC:



Humidity is increasing in South Florida, lets see if we can get some thunderstorms this afternoon.

[jasons2k]

Just had a chance to read Jeff Lindner's email (it's in the Analysis forum) and he is now supporting the transition idea that I latched onto yesterday morning. I'm sticking with it. I'm surprised that everyone seems so "shocked" this is a disoraganized mess this morning. That's exactly what one would expect from a slowly transitioning hybrid system. Continued patience is in order and I think overnight tonight into tomorrow we'll know what 93 is going to do.