Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[skysummit]

we need to keep this situation in perspective

What we are likely facing is a rain event with gusty winds. Those living near rivers need to closely monitor, but for the rest of us, it should just be a miserable day with severe weather

Perhaps a way to better address the warning criteria would be to abolish TS warnings, and issue gale (34-47KT and storm (48-63KT) warnings. That way, there would be a difference between the weak and strong TS

Now, I totally agree with this...although he probably has me ignored. I don't see anything wrong with issuing gale warnings for winds of 40 - 50mph....or even an inland wind warning or something.

[tolakram]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200709

Jeff Masters analysis. Very interesting about the low moving North, just as AFM told us.

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

A very complicated weather situation over the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic waters off the Southeast U.S. coast associated with a non-tropical low pressure system (93L), has brought heavy rains to Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina over the past 12 hours. A cold-cored upper level low pressure system a few hundred miles southwest of Tampa, Florida is primarily responsible for the the action. Late yesterday afternoon, a separate area of surface low pressure formed near Daytona Beach, bringing high surf and heavy rains of up to five inches along the Florida coast from Daytona to Jacksonville. This low moved inland over Florida, but the associated surge of moisture rotated northwards all the way to South Carolina. High surf warnings and coastal flood watches have been posted for Charleston, South Carolina today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds up to 50 mph well offshore of South Carolina. These winds have created a storm surge of up to two feet along the South Carolina coast. This second low pressure system was identified as "93L" by NHC beginning at 2 pm EDT yesterday. However, now that the low has weakened crossing the Florida Peninsula, the "93L" designation has been taken away from it, and attached to the upper level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Recent Satellite loops and the Tampa Bay long range radar show that this non-tropical low pressure system is beginning to get more organized and is acquiring tropical characteristics. Substantial pressure falls are occurring at the surface underneath the upper level low, and this system is on its way to becoming a subtropical depression. A surface low pressure system vertically aligned with a cold-cored upper level low will usually take two or more days to make the transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. Rapid intensification cannot occur until the system is fully warm-core. Since landfall is expected Saturday between the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Louisiana, 93L probably does not have time to become fully tropical. If 93L makes landfall Saturday, it should not have winds stronger than about 55 mph. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models all keep 93L's winds below 55 mph. If the storm spends an extra day over water and makes it to Texas, as the ECMWF model predicts, 93L could become fully tropical and make landfall as a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds. However, there is plenty of dry air in the environment, and I don't think the storm will be able to intensify to a strong tropical storm. The primary threat from 93L will be heavy rain, and the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas border can expect a soaking from this system.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 93L this afternoon at 2pm EDT.

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[Derek Ortt]

I most certainly did not say Cindy was a T Storm and recommended a Hurricane Warning for that storm (had to get up from my sleep for that storm as I had worked overnight the night before running models on Cindy and Dennis)

[fci]

that was a hurricane that hit Texas

Also, that guy should not have been standing under his awning... he got the Darwin award for that storm

Given the likely landfall point of SE LA (a fairly fragile area), I have to respectfully disagree with taking this potential storm too lightly. I agree that 6 hours is plenty of time to prepare for a weak TS. However, what if we are surprised and it pulls an Humberto and goes in as a strong Cat 1? Would you want to be the one that missed that call?

Like someone else who recently posted, I'm looking at this from an engineering point of view. I'm also very experienced in running dynamic 3-D finite-difference simulations, so I am aware of limitations of such models.

I just think that you can't pattern all your forecasting after the freak of nature that Humberto was.
I know that I said it above but, IN MY OPINION: the NHC has to be careful not to put up warnings hastily as the "cry wolf" syndrome can kick in.

S2K enthusiasts take it all seriously but the general public will begin to disregard warnings if they are issued too many times in vain. It happened down here in Florida when we went a very long time without a strike and had warnings and watches several times. This pretty much abated after Andrew and the sentiment grew again until the past few years where we had multiple landfalling storms.

So, I agree with more of a wait n see attitude on warnings and not changing the philosophy due to a freak like Humberto.

[HURAKAN]

A REMINDER TO EVERYONE:

Any post that is an offense towards Pro-Mets will be deleted. You may have the right to disagree with a Pro-Met but you have to realize that when they say something, it's because they have experience and the knowledge to back it up. If you want to disagree, just send a PM to the Pro-Met but don't post anything offensive because it will be deleted without your consent.

By the way, this also applies if you disagree with another member. Anything offensive will be deleted.

[rockyman]

(I'm sure I'll get a PM for this)...but...to keep things in perspective...here is more information on the "winner of the Darwin Award"

John U. Simon
John U. Simon, 80, of Bridge City, died Thursday, September 13, 2007, at his residence, from injuries sustained in an accident due to hurricane Humberto. Funeral services will be 2:00 p.m. Monday, September 17, at Claybar Funeral Home Chapel in Bridge City, with burial following at Hillcrest Memorial Gardens. Visitation will be 6-9 p.m. Sunday, September 16, at the funeral home. Mr. Simon was born February 17, 1927, in Kaplan, Louisiana and had been a resident of Bridge City for 59 years. He retired from the Gulf Refinery and was an active pastor in the Prison Outreach Ministry. John will be remembered for his loving kindness and his love for his Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ. He is survived by his loving wife of 60 years, Una J. Simon of Bridge City; sons and daughter-in-law, David and Tammie Simon of Dover, Deleware, Lonnie Simon of Bridge City; grandchildren, Josh Simon, Mike Simon, Angel Simon; great grandchildren, Brady Simon and Samantha Simon. Also surviving are his sisters, Umae Gaspard, Mitha Abshire and Leone Broussard, all of Kaplan, Louisiana. 800 Highland Bridge City, TX 77611 409-735-7161 http://www.claybarfunerhome.com

http://www.legacy.com/beaumontenterpris ... D=94494461

[hurricanetrack]

Hey, it looks like Joe can stay in Richmond and finish his talks and meetings with what ever client he is visiting. Would hate to have him drive or fly back to State College over this system....there is litte to be concerned about unless rain makes your house melt.

[jhamps10]

A REMINDER TO EVERYONE:

Any post that is an offense towards Pro-Mets will be deleted. You may have the right to disagree with a Pro-Met but you have to realize that when they say something, is because they have experience and the knowledge to back it up. If you want to disagree, just send a PM to the Pro-Met but don't post anything offensive because it will be deleted without your consent.

OK, now that almost draws a line no offense, that a pro-mets is the "BOSS" around here and we who don't have degrees must listen to them. Sorry IMO, I feel that if you disagree with a pro met and and to post it, that it SHOULD not be deleted, of course unless it is just vulgar and things like that.

[tolakram]

Sorry to interrupt with actual storm information ....

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS
FORMED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM
REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

On the east side of 93L I am getting some breezy conditions
and quick moving clouds. Nothing significant just yet,
but I do think some squalls will develop and rotate over
the florida peninsula, with wind gusts of 40-50 mph
possible in stronger thunderstorms in those squalls.

Also, being on the NE quadrant, much of central
florida has a risk of TORNADOES today:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
click on the hazardous weather outlook and you can
read about the threat for tornadoes.

[hurricanetrack]

Ok, back to your lives citizens. This obviously is a non-event and I am sure we can find more constructive ways to spend our time- like getting sleep or getting back to work. But since hurricanes are my work, I am going to sleep.

[Air Force Met]

we need to keep this situation in perspective

What we are likely facing is a rain event with gusty winds. Those living near rivers need to closely monitor, but for the rest of us, it should just be a miserable day with severe weather

Perhaps a way to better address the warning criteria would be to abolish TS warnings, and issue gale (34-47KT and storm (48-63KT) warnings. That way, there would be a difference between the weak and strong TS

That's what they used to do before...1983? can't recall. But that makes a lot more sense. After all...wind is wind. It doesn't matter whether it comes in the form of an ET system...STS or a tropical storm. 50 kts is 50 kts.

[senorpepr]

A REMINDER TO EVERYONE:

Any post that is an offense towards Pro-Mets will be deleted. You may have the right to disagree with a Pro-Met but you have to realize that when they say something, is because they have experience and the knowledge to back it up. If you want to disagree, just send a PM to the Pro-Met but don't post anything offensive because it will be deleted without your consent.

OK, now that almost draws a line no offense, that a pro-mets is the "BOSS" around here and we who don't have degrees must listen to them. Sorry IMO, I feel that if you disagree with a pro met and and to post it, that it SHOULD not be deleted, of course unless it is just vulgar and things like that.

That's sort of what HURAKAN is saying. You have the right to respectfully disagree with a pro met, but forcefully arguing will not be allowed. You don't have to listen to the pro mets... you don't have to agree with a pro met--and you can be publically vocal with your disagreement. Just be adult and respectfully with your disagreement.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

looks like recon is ON

[CoCo2]

Yeah Derek, the weather pros said that about Cindy in 2005, just a thunderstorm, no big deal... well Miss Cindy went right over me, and while Cindy was no Katrina, she scared the bejeezes out of me.

Come on now...let's not be dramatic. No pro said cindy was just a thunderstorm or no big deal.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


Oh yes they did!!!! Bob Breck our local met certainly did and so did a few other locals. I stayed in my raised shotgun home surrounded by trees because a professional met told the viewing public it was going to be a strong thunderstorm! And we all know they were wrong. BTW, I know what warnings mean, tropical or hurricane, I lost EVERYTHING from Katrina and was again flooded by Rita, so please don't even attempt to patronize me with your warning language. You all get it wrong sometimes too! Ask the folks who went through Humberto.

[skysummit]

A REMINDER TO EVERYONE:

Any post that is an offense towards Pro-Mets will be deleted. You may have the right to disagree with a Pro-Met but you have to realize that when they say something, is because they have experience and the knowledge to back it up. If you want to disagree, just send a PM to the Pro-Met but don't post anything offensive because it will be deleted without your consent.

OK, now that almost draws a line no offense, that a pro-mets is the "BOSS" around here and we who don't have degrees must listen to them. Sorry IMO, I feel that if you disagree with a pro met and and to post it, that it SHOULD not be deleted, of course unless it is just vulgar and things like that.

That's sort of what HURAKAN is saying. You have the right to respectfully disagree with a pro met, but forcefully arguing will not be allowed. You don't have to listen to the pro mets... you don't have to agree with a pro met--and you can be publically vocal with your disagreement. Just be adult and respectfully with your disagreement.

So saying the guy that died deserved the Darwin Award was being an adult? I think THAT'S what most here were disagreeing on.

[HURAKAN]

BACK ON TOPIC: 93L

Latest:

[skysummit]

BACK ON TOPIC: 93L

Latest:

Hey....that's a decent blow up of activity toward the west. Let's see if it can continue throughout the day. I wonder how soon the GFS will show the transition to warm core. It looked like the NAM showed it in about 30 hours or so.

[Derek Ortt]

1987 is when TS warnings were first issued. Prior, only Gale warnings were issued.

The gale and storm warnings make far more sense than TS warnings since conditions in a marginal TS are far difference than are for a strong TS.

Had storm warnings been raised for Humberto, far fewer people would have been caught off guard

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

storms off the west coast getting stronger in convection.