Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[RL3AO]

I couldn't get online at school today. Can I get a quick recap of whats going on?

[Sanibel]

Winds picked up here from SSE. Over 20KTS. Very warm tropical wind. Heavy cell seen to south of island in disturbed sky entrained to circulation. This smells like energy to me.

[miamicanes177]

Derek said...and I agree...that a recon shouldn't be sent because this isn't a tropical cyclone and the low is still a mess (not quoting here). We aren't going to learn much from this sending a plane into it that we can't learn from satellite and sfc obs (save the temp profile that I discussed in a previous post).

He never said it didn't have a closed circulation.

The NHC takes way too much heat in my opinion. They are the professionals and we need to respect the decisions they make. They are only trying to protect us so we need to respect what they are doing. They felt it was necessary to send recon and that is exactly what they did. I don't see anything wrong with their decision to do so and I support the NHC 100%.

[miamicanes177]

[CrazyC83]

Wow, it looks like there are 45 kt uncontaminated barbs in there!

[bbadon]

>>Question: What if the ULL gets kicked out to the north and the LLC if there is one is left behind?

Haven't seen an ULL get kicked out to the north during tropical season in a long, long time. I have seen upper cirulcations sheared off of storms and head that way, but...

>>newbie weather question, but an article was written on this cold blast hitting the West coast and isn't this the trough thats suppose to pick up the current GOM blob and lift it North?

Don't bet on it. That trough either sits over the Western US, splits off SW into the pacific with the northern portion lifting out (NE) possibly into Canada or the Great Lakes. All that trough out west is gonna do for those of us in the south is ensure that we continue to have ridging out here for a while (mostly).

Steve

Well something on the water vapor is moving north not sure what level. Interesting Stuff.

[Steve]

>>Well something on the water vapor is moving north not sure what level. Interesting Stuff.

Probably a swirl within a swirl or something like that.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

WONT 41 STDS just issued, not a tropical cyclone yet.

[tailgater]

Well something on the water vapor is moving north not sure what level. Interesting Stuff.
I just got back near a puter working out of town, but it sure looks like the ULL is lifting out to me.

[jhamps10]

>>Question: What if the ULL gets kicked out to the north and the LLC if there is one is left behind?

Haven't seen an ULL get kicked out to the north during tropical season in a long, long time. I have seen upper cirulcations sheared off of storms and head that way, but...

>>newbie weather question, but an article was written on this cold blast hitting the West coast and isn't this the trough thats suppose to pick up the current GOM blob and lift it North?

Don't bet on it. That trough either sits over the Western US, splits off SW into the pacific with the northern portion lifting out (NE) possibly into Canada or the Great Lakes. All that trough out west is gonna do for those of us in the south is ensure that we continue to have ridging out here for a while (mostly).

Steve

Well something on the water vapor is moving north not sure what level. Interesting Stuff.

yeah it does, however something also looks to be going south too. so one going north, the other going south???? anyone care to explain what's going what way.... or guess for that matter.

[Air Force Met]

Question: What if the ULL gets kicked out to the north and the LLC if there is one is left behind?

AS my dad used to say: What if a frog had wings?

The point? He doesn't...and it won't. I don't see a scenario in which that would happen. Upper lows don't kick out to the north. They usually either kick out to the east...retrograde SW or W....or slowly (and I mean slowly) wind down. It won't kick out...there is nothing to kick it out anytime soon.

Retrograding slowly west and a slow wind down appears to be the clear choice. Nothing to move it out.

[CrazyC83]

000
WONT41 KNHC 201956
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT
115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA. THE AIRCRAFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE
NO INDICATIONS YET THAT THE LOW HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[ronjon]

Quickscat showing well-defined circulation center that is tighter than what I can find on RAD or SAT. Wind barbs north and south of cc at 45 kts. Some increase in convection late this afternoon. Could see some gradual deepening tonight.

[Sanibel]

ULL is still choking the surface level from tightening.

[Puddinhead]

So I'm guessing what everyone's saying is I shouldn't count on my family and I spending this weekend in the FEMA trailer in my front yard here in New Orleans....

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[jhamps10]

So I'm guessing what everyone's saying is I shouldn't count on my family and I spending this weekend in the FEMA trailer in my front yard here in New Orleans....

well, I wouldn't count on it right now no.

[tailgater]

Quickscat showing well-defined circulation center that is tighter than what I can find on RAD or SAT. Wind barbs north and south of cc at 45 kts. Some increase in convection late this afternoon. Could see some gradual deepening tonight.

It's there, I had to look pretty hard to find it but, I sped up the Vis loop and there it was @26.85 N and 84.5 west

[Puddinhead]

So I'm guessing what everyone's saying is I shouldn't count on my family and I spending this weekend in the FEMA trailer in my front yard here in New Orleans....

well, I wouldn't count on it right now no.

Next you'll tell me not to figure on driving down to Houma for my sons' high school football game tomorrow night, either....

LOL

[niner21]

So I'm guessing what everyone's saying is I shouldn't count on my family and I spending this weekend in the FEMA trailer in my front yard here in New Orleans....

Put your trailer inside an 18 wheeler trailer and then strap it to the ground and you'll be fine....


I'm hoping all that happens is that your streets get wet.