Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: INVEST 93L : Eastern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1521 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:13 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Slightly cooler inside from outside. Extratropical.


Maybe warm core transition starts from the bottom and works it's way up. I see the TWC mets sometimes talk about an upper low in the tropics working its way to the surface, maybe this thing has got to works its way up from the surface.


Boy, what I wouldn't give now for a few classes in tropical meteorology. Maybe ask my wife for an AMS monogram.

It was amazing how much I learned about the warm conveyor and cold conveyor and entrance and exit regions and the such a few years back when my wife got me the Kocin and Uccellini monograph about famous winter storms of the Northeast for Christmas. I think it was the same year it dusted my car and palm trees on Christmas Eve. What a magic holiday that was.

But I digress.
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#1522 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:23 pm

Latest:

Image
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#1523 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:23 pm

425
ABNT20 KNHC 202123
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
TAMPA FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
A FEW SQUALLS BUT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED
AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
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#1524 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:25 pm

Image
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#1525 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:27 pm

Latest:

Image

If the NHC is right, then the satellite image must be lying!!!
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#1526 Postby Coredesat » Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:29 pm

I agree, I see absolutely no way this could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone "at any time" without more organization.
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Re:

#1527 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:29 pm

RL3AO wrote:Image


CODE RED! :eek: :sick:

Seriously, this thing needs a LOT of help before it's a subtropical or tropical anything.
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Re:

#1528 Postby tailgater » Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:32 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Latest:

Image

If the NHC is right, then the satellite image must be lying!!!

Try this one, zoom in and about 15 frames in motion, it's fairly evident if you can block out the upper and mid level clouds.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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Re:

#1529 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:33 pm

Coredesat wrote:I agree, I see absolutely no way this could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone "at any time" without more organization.

Well they obviously didnt mean "This may become a TC at any time if no further organization occurs" Obviously it still needs more organization to "become" That is what the statement means
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Re: INVEST 93L : Eastern Gulf:Discussions=5:30 PM TWO at page 77

#1530 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:36 pm

Image
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Re: INVEST 93L : Eastern Gulf:Discussions=5:30 PM TWO at page 77

#1531 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:49 pm

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Re: INVEST 93L : Eastern Gulf:Discussions=5:30 PM TWO at page 77

#1532 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:58 pm

From our Pro met in Beaumont

he low in the Gulf is very poorly organized this evening and shows no signs of developing at this time.

It is drifting slowly to the west-northwest and should continue this general motion for the next few days.

Any landfall should be on Sunday from our area on eastward toward New Orleans. With the current unfavorable upper air pattern likely to persist, no significant development is expected.

At the most, I would expect a tropical storm at landfall with only some rain for our area Sunday into Monday.
_________________
Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist
KFDM-TV

SETexas wrote:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
TAMPA FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
A FEW SQUALLS BUT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED
AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
I strongly disagree with Mr. Avila.

This low is NOT well defined and is actually becoming less defined this evening and that is because environmental conditions are NOT favorable for development.

Again, it could develop a little before landfall but I would expect nothing more than a tropical storm.
_________________
Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist
KFDM-TV
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Re: INVEST 93L : Eastern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1533 Postby 3ABirdMan » Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:02 pm

Downdraft wrote:You can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear! I have no idea what the passion is for trying to make this system into something it just isn't and won't become. 76 pages for something like this to me is absolutely amazing. If recon went in just to get some synoptic data for the models that's fine but Derek is right if they went to see if this mess was developing they just wasted the gas. People ought to be saying wow we dodged a bullet and this thing won't make landfall as anything more than a mess. Instead it seems so many now think every swirl in the Gulf is on it's way to a Cat 5.


I've been "lurking" for 3 days now, and had to sign up today to answer a few of these "issues" ............

We were hit HARD by Rita in SETX (Bridge City caught the 11:00 - 1:00 position of the leading edge of the eye), after dodging bullet after bullet for close to 30 years. Every time there was a threat, a cold front or an upper High would come along and shove the "worry" either to South TX or LA. Rita was the exception. And with all of the hulabaloo following Katrina, nobody got to see what happened to us on the evening news.

Imagine checking the NHC web site at 11:00 pm last Wednesday night, to be assured Humberto was only a low-grade TS - expecting 40-50 mph winds and rain to make landfall 50 miles away - only to be awakened at 4:30 am with no power, 80 mph winds, and horizontal rain on the eastern edge of the eyewall! I lost power around 3:00 am Thursday morning, and got it back Sunday evening. I had NO GAS in the gas cans, wasn't sure where the generator was in the garage, or if it would run, no water or food stores........... I was TOTALLY unprepared!

Those experiences far outshadow all of the "close-calls" and "false-alarms" we've had for nearly 3 decades. If another storm is lurking out there, I want all of the info I can get, so I can make educated decisions to protect my family and property. THAT'S why all the excitement!

And about the man who was killed here in Bridge City -
Some of you should be ashamed for making the comments you made without knowing the facts. He was a good man, and though I didn't know him personally, I have several friends who did, and EVERY ONE of them has commented on what a kind, gentle-hearted, hard-working man he was. And he IS missed in our community. It WAS a freak accident, but remember - When we went to bed last Wed. night, we expected a little wind and a lot of rain. With no power, and not being prepared, NONE of us knew we were waking up in the middle of a Cat I hurricane!
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#1534 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:02 pm

Have to agree with Greg. This well defined low is not so "well defined."
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Re: INVEST 93L : Eastern Gulf:Discussions=5:30 PM TWO at page 77

#1535 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:21 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:From our Pro met in Beaumont

he low in the Gulf is very poorly organized this evening and shows no signs of developing at this time.

It is drifting slowly to the west-northwest and should continue this general motion for the next few days.

Any landfall should be on Sunday from our area on eastward toward New Orleans. With the current unfavorable upper air pattern likely to persist, no significant development is expected.

At the most, I would expect a tropical storm at landfall with only some rain for our area Sunday into Monday.
_________________
Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist
KFDM-TV

SETexas wrote:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
TAMPA FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
A FEW SQUALLS BUT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED
AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
I strongly disagree with Mr. Avila.

This low is NOT well defined and is actually becoming less defined this evening and that is because environmental conditions are NOT favorable for development.

Again, it could develop a little before landfall but I would expect nothing more than a tropical storm.
_________________
Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist
KFDM-TV



Actually and maybe I am nitpicking..... is it not Dr Avila


Senior Hurricane Specialists
Lixion Avila, PhD
Jack Beven, PhD
James Franklin
Richard Knabb, PhD
Richard Pasch, PhD
Stacy R. Stewart – Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM)


Well he can be Mr and Dr....LOL


Again, this weekend will be interesting in the gulf.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Eastern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1536 Postby Cape Verde » Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:23 pm

3ABirdMan wrote:

I've been "lurking" for 3 days now, and had to sign up today to answer a few of these "issues" ............

We were hit HARD by Rita in SETX (Bridge City caught the 11:00 - 1:00 position of the leading edge of the eye), after dodging bullet after bullet for close to 30 years. Every time there was a threat, a cold front or an upper High would come along and shove the "worry" either to South TX or LA. Rita was the exception. And with all of the hulabaloo following Katrina, nobody got to see what happened to us on the evening news.

Imagine checking the NHC web site at 11:00 pm last Wednesday night, to be assured Humberto was only a low-grade TS - expecting 40-50 mph winds and rain to make landfall 50 miles away - only to be awakened at 4:30 am with no power, 80 mph winds, and horizontal rain on the eastern edge of the eyewall! I lost power around 3:00 am Thursday morning, and got it back Sunday evening. I had NO GAS in the gas cans, wasn't sure where the generator was in the garage, or if it would run, no water or food stores........... I was TOTALLY unprepared!

Those experiences far outshadow all of the "close-calls" and "false-alarms" we've had for nearly 3 decades. If another storm is lurking out there, I want all of the info I can get, so I can make educated decisions to protect my family and property. THAT'S why all the excitement!

And about the man who was killed here in Bridge City -
Some of you should be ashamed for making the comments you made without knowing the facts. He was a good man, and though I didn't know him personally, I have several friends who did, and EVERY ONE of them has commented on what a kind, gentle-hearted, hard-working man he was. And he IS missed in our community. It WAS a freak accident, but remember - When we went to bed last Wed. night, we expected a little wind and a lot of rain. With no power, and not being prepared, NONE of us knew we were waking up in the middle of a Cat I hurricane!


Great post, and welcome aboard.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Eastern Gulf: Discussions & Images

#1537 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:29 pm

Thanks for that refreshing post......
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Re: INVEST 93L : Eastern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1538 Postby 3ABirdMan » Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:31 pm

Cape Verde wrote:Great post, and welcome aboard.


Thank You! I have REALLY enjoyed reading this thread, from start to finish, as well as the rest of the site. I think I might have even learned a little from a lot of you guys and gals!

And I must apologize for sounding so bitter on my FIRST post......... I'll try to be nicer in the future, but I just had to .....That time!
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Re: INVEST 93L : Eastern Gulf: Discussions & Images

#1539 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:32 pm

Still have some time left but this could become (in the 2 years ive been on the board) the MOST overhyped Invest ever...I did copy and print some posts from the past 2 days of all the ones who thought Texas would be destroyed from this thing and the EURO rules and the GFS sux...interesting how things change. Hope this is nothing more than a rain event but I am still on ALERT.
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INVEST 93L : Eastern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1540 Postby Cellrock » Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:34 pm

3ABirdMan wrote:
Downdraft wrote:You can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear! I have no idea what the passion is for trying to make this system into something it just isn't and won't become. 76 pages for something like this to me is absolutely amazing. If recon went in just to get some synoptic data for the models that's fine but Derek is right if they went to see if this mess was developing they just wasted the gas. People ought to be saying wow we dodged a bullet and this thing won't make landfall as anything more than a mess. Instead it seems so many now think every swirl in the Gulf is on it's way to a Cat 5.


I've been "lurking" for 3 days now, and had to sign up today to answer a few of these "issues" ............

We were hit HARD by Rita in SETX (Bridge City caught the 11:00 - 1:00 position of the leading edge of the eye), after dodging bullet after bullet for close to 30 years. Every time there was a threat, a cold front or an upper High would come along and shove the "worry" either to South TX or LA. Rita was the exception. And with all of the hulabaloo following Katrina, nobody got to see what happened to us on the evening news.

Imagine checking the NHC web site at 11:00 pm last Wednesday night, to be assured Humberto was only a low-grade TS - expecting 40-50 mph winds and rain to make landfall 50 miles away - only to be awakened at 4:30 am with no power, 80 mph winds, and horizontal rain on the eastern edge of the eyewall! I lost power around 3:00 am Thursday morning, and got it back Sunday evening. I had NO GAS in the gas cans, wasn't sure where the generator was in the garage, or if it would run, no water or food stores........... I was TOTALLY unprepared!

Those experiences far outshadow all of the "close-calls" and "false-alarms" we've had for nearly 3 decades. If another storm is lurking out there, I want all of the info I can get, so I can make educated decisions to protect my family and property. THAT'S why all the excitement!

And about the man who was killed here in Bridge City -
Some of you should be ashamed for making the comments you made without knowing the facts. He was a good man, and though I didn't know him personally, I have several friends who did, and EVERY ONE of them has commented on what a kind, gentle-hearted, hard-working man he was. And he IS missed in our community. It WAS a freak accident, but remember - When we went to bed last Wed. night, we expected a little wind and a lot of rain. With no power, and not being prepared, NONE of us knew we were waking up in the middle of a Cat I hurricane!



Great post, I fully understand your concerns. there is nothing like waking up to no power and hig water and wind. I was living galveston when Alica hit in 83, all everyone was saying it would just be some rain and wind gusts. How about Cat2? flooding, fallen trees,and no power for 2 and 1/2 weeks. national guard rolling thru your neigborhood with rifles and orders to shoot on site if you are not inside or on your porch by dark. standing in line for hours for some ice. I live in Houston now,so let not talk about Allison.
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