Western Caribbean Disturbance

[jhamps10]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_018l.gif

GFS develops a low at 18 hours, but loses it in the 24 hour image, however it looks a lot better than in the 18 hour image.

30 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif

[cycloneye]

54 hours

60 hours

[cycloneye]

72 hours

A 1-2 punch for the same area.First system now in GOM and then this one?

[jhamps10]

18z GFS points it towards the SE Louisana coast.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_ten_066l.gif

72 hours, inland near Nola, low lost:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_ten_072l.gif

And with that, is your 18z GFS update on the Carribean disturbance

[jhamps10]

72 hours

A 1-2 punch for the same area.First system now in GOM and then this one?

and in this one, there won't be a debate on rather it's warm core or cold core. in fact I see a possible LLC on the visable shot.

[cycloneye]

Ramsdis floater is over SW Caribbean disturbance.

[jhamps10]

ok guys, I don't know if anyone has looked at a loop today or not, but i noticed how fast the GFS has this coming to the US coast. 3 days out, having it gain between 15 and 17 degrees of latitude to get it to the US coast in 72 hours, that's an average of 4.5 degrees of gain per day,

however I bring the loop in here, as I've noticed a low and it has not moved 4.5 degrees, not even 2 degrees of latitude gain, So I think the speed is too fast, but the jest is this, the GFS shows this for the 6th or 7th in a row, and now we have some clear development, and I think DMAX will be very interesting, we could have a invest tomorrow, and a TD not long afterwards.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this has the best chance of becoming Jerry. A lot of time and low shear and is already starting to form a LLC. So the models are not to far off. Unlike the last distrabance the gfs tryed to form.

[punkyg]

So is there a low developing down in the sw carribean?
It sure looked like a low down there when i saw the visible loops earlier.

It don't look bad.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

[cajungal]

I think this one looks a lot better than the mess in the gulf right now.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE DISORGANIZED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 76W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST SWLY UPPER FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYER LOW IN THE GULF AND AN UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA. CONVECTION IS STRONGEST IN A PRONOUNCED
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W. NW TO WLY UPPER
FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LOW NW OF
PUERTO RICO...COVERS THE REGION E OF 80W. THIS FLOW IS VERY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. DRIER MID TO UPPER AIR IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF BROKEN CLOUDINESS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY RELAXED ACROSS THE AREA...DUE TO THE LOW IN THE ERN GULF
AND WEAK TROUGHING IN THE WRN ATLC. THIS IS KEEPING THE TRADE
WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. LOOKING AHEAD...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
IN THE WRN CARIB.

[jhamps10]

So is there a low developing down in the sw carribean?
It sure looked like a low down there when i saw the visible loops earlier.

It don't look bad.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

even with it after dark, you can still see a good bit of convection firing around this center. I'd say we have a low developing, invest tomorrow, TD tomorrow night or saturday morning at the very latest, but if it fires up another big blob of convection tonight and keeps it, then we may see td 10 come from this, and NOT from 93L.

[jhamps10]

TWD 805:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE DISORGANIZED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 76W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST SWLY UPPER FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYER LOW IN THE GULF AND AN UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA. CONVECTION IS STRONGEST IN A PRONOUNCED
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W. NW TO WLY UPPER
FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LOW NW OF
PUERTO RICO...COVERS THE REGION E OF 80W. THIS FLOW IS VERY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. DRIER MID TO UPPER AIR IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF BROKEN CLOUDINESS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY RELAXED ACROSS THE AREA...DUE TO THE LOW IN THE ERN GULF
AND WEAK TROUGHING IN THE WRN ATLC. THIS IS KEEPING THE TRADE
WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. LOOKING AHEAD...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
IN THE WRN CARIB.

WOW, NHC thinks it aien't gonna happen, however they aren;t looking around the 15/82 area, I don't see it meantioned at all. it was there where the clear turning was on the visible loop before nightfall. I'm respectfully disagreeing with NHC here.

[gatorcane]

So is there a low developing down in the sw carribean?
It sure looked like a low down there when i saw the visible loops earlier.

It don't look bad.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

even with it after dark, you can still see a good bit of convection firing around this center. I'd say we have a low developing, invest tomorrow, TD tomorrow night or saturday morning at the very latest, but if it fires up another big blob of convection tonight and keeps it, then we may see td 10 come from this, and NOT from 93L.

See my post although I give it a 5% chance.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98142

[Nimbus]

Saw the convection burst near 80 in the WV so I came over here to see if anyone knew anything. NHC 8:05 said unfavorable upper air pattern so I will go back to watching 93L for now.

[tropicsgal05]

I heard Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC mention that there was moisture being pulled up from the caribbean by 93L. Is this what everyone's talking about or is there something further south in the caribben?

[punkyg]

In terms on how it looks tell what yall think.
i don't think it looks bad at all, but of course i can't wait til morning.

[jhamps10]

More development near the center,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

GFS out in 30 minutes.,

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this will slowly develop over the next few days. Maybe becoming a tropical storm as it moves northward. This will be our jerry. Cross fingers

[jhamps10]

GFS rolling out, someone wanna post....